Comments on: Is This the Beginning of a Bull Market, or Just a Breather for the Bear?

By: J Chavez, Denver

J Chavez, Denver — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 02:38:45 +0000

My greatest concern is the competition for capital of government with the private sector. On that score, Martin is on target. Ultimately, with shortage of usuable capital, higher interest rates and inflation will govern the day. Time after time, lower interest rates have pulled the U.S. economy out of recession. This has the potential to occur again, but not if inflation threatens and results in upward movement in interest rates.

Joseph C.

By: Frank Hendriksen

Frank Hendriksen — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 17:35:04 +0000

There seems to be some sloppy reporting here. Yes, to recover from a 58% drop, the market must rise by 138% but to recover from a 90% drop, the market would have to rise by 900%, not the 1000% claimed in this article. Make sure your numbers are right, Martin. Without that, you’re less believable

By: The Deficit needs correction

The Deficit needs correction — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:39:33 +0000

Looks like at this point the government will have little choice but to cut government expenses like government payrolls and subsidies to balance the budget which seems to most reasonable strategy in this scenario, without it stagflation or inflation will hurt the econonmy.

By: Bob Cluett

Bob Cluett — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:31:43 +0000

The era on which we have embarked is neither ‘29-’43 nor ‘69-’82, though it does have a distressingly analogous collapse in consumer liquidity. This era’s added distinctive ingredient is national debt to GDP ratios reminiscent of the end of WW2, when the consumer had lots of liquidity. The double hit of consumer collapse and vertiginous debt-GDP ratios is a new and truly ominous challenge. We are still a long way from completing the deleveraging requisite to economic health, Until that is done, we’ll be living in the ’30s, the ’70s, or worse.

By: MikeUK

MikeUK — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 11:23:36 +0000

I agree with you and Tray G. There is more bad news out there than good and many have not experienced what can happen. In the UK in the mid-seventies and the early nineties house prices on average by 40% (I ‘lost’ that amount in the seventies). Most people in the UK deny this ever happened because they feel happier deluding themselves (head in sand and lack of experience).
The debts are enormous and any expansion in credit will make them worse and toxic loans will increase.
Those saying we are over the worse mostly have a vested interest in usu believing that. How many examples of people building up a share/market when they are selling heavily do you have to have?

By: When and How the U.S. Economy Will Recover

When and How the U.S. Economy Will Recover — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 12:01:05 +0000

[...] But when all is said and done, will they be the darkest? Or are more to come? [...]

By: Elliott Wave Disciple Robert Prechter Sees a Possible 2,000 Dow

Elliott Wave Disciple Robert Prechter Sees a Possible 2,000 Dow — Tue, 19 May 2009 10:02:05 +0000

[...] Money Morning: Is This the Beginning of a Bull Market, or Just a Breather for the Bear? [...]

By: Trey G

Trey G — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 13:15:17 +0000

I am not sure if I have seen more spot on reporting on the economy. I also worried in 1995 when the market took off from high to ridiculous. Everyone started talking about the new economy and the new rules for valuing stocks whose P/E ratios were out of sight. Retirement money was flooding the stock market with the development of new retirement plans with greater options. This era is no different than the 1920s and 30s. Excessive money chasing too few goods ran to dot com companies then to oil companies then to real estate and finally financials where it could be disposed of and lost in the blink of an eye by chasing rampant speculation. You now have a generation that has no clue as to what bad times look like and thinks it can borrow itself into prosperity. It is a guarantee that at best, with democrats growing the government and nationalizing industries, we will follow Japan. The most likely outcome, though, is worse because this country no longer has any national pride to pick itself up and work for the good of our country.

By: Gary F

Gary F — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 20:07:45 +0000

Martin:

You must be a consumate bear where any good news is just an aberation!

Do you look at the market in mostly a negative way?

Gary

By: P. Denaco

P. Denaco — Thu, 16 Apr 2009 14:10:13 +0000

Some pertinent thoughts here, but is this really responsible financial journalism? One’s thoughts about the financial health of a company or to avoid a certain investemt is what advisory services are about, but “bailout bombshells” and “bomb shelter for your money” are vivid over-visulizations of disaster. I for one do not see this as 1929; there are many distinctions from those days. Even though I could be wrong, I do not see a Dow at 4000.

So, tell us more about what to buy, what to study, and what to avoid, with a little less drama on the “gloom and doom” possibilities. Of course the possiblity exists, but we didn’t get hijacked and don’t need the Navy to rescue us, yet. The is no need to emulate the “Cramer” model of financial journalism! Be well.