Comments on: Elliott Wave Disciple Robert Prechter Sees a Possible 2,000 Dow

By: Steven Yoder

Steven Yoder — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 19:59:19 +0000

We give China—exactly what we should—–washington D.C.; federal -owned lands, public buildings, and war equipment—–don't they deserve their money back. If you owed a bank—-they would take our assets—–at completely depressed prices!!!! Oh well, this is what we deserve for never doubting our elected officials.

By: Yesterday's Sept. 1 Downer For Stocks Darkens the Outlook in an Already Bleak Month For Investors

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 14:13:43 +0000

[...] (Prechter was recently interviewed by Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson. To read that report, please click here.) [...]

By: Robert

Robert — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:42:13 +0000

I am saying that I agree with Robert Prechter that we are on the verge of seeing a massive DEflation, with a major wipeout of credit, and am preparing accordingly. We might see inflation start up AFTER deflation has made itself obvious to all. But barring the Bureau of Engraving starting up the actual printing presses to print actual currency, that won't happen until people are on balance in the mood to ask for credit to start buying things once again. Estimates from Elliot Wave that I have read predict that to still be years away. More likely the government at some point is not going to have the money to honor its existing programs and start defaulting on them. But you can bet the government will make darn sure to honor its Treasury securities as a matter of its own survival.

My best guess for when the big drop written about should begin would be sometime in the late summer or in the fall. During that wave, we should see what Ellioticians call the "point of recognition". That's when the public will recognize unmistakably that the dominant trend has changed. And there's an extra nasty with the current wave of what they call cycle degree – the breakout of war near its low. I think a couple possibilities for whom the enemy might be in such a war have become obvious in Iran and North Korea. It occurred to me recently there could be another possibility – civil war if the Obama administration crosses some red line such as trying to disarm the populace, which tens of millions would undoubtedly recognize as the administration putting itself in a state of war against the people. In light of the strong likelihood of some kind of major war, having some retreat to go to, away from other people, would be wise.

One last thing on 1987 – in the 1978 edition of Elliot Wave Principle, Bob Prechter predicted that 1987 would be a likely year for the cycle wave V bull market he was predicting to end, based on Elliot Wave guidelines on waves 1 and 5 tending toward equality. Guidelines, unlike rules, may or may not play out as predicted, and in this case that guideline did not. It turned out that the bull market he predicted lasted quite a bit longer than originally forecast, more closely rivaling cycle wave III than wave I in terms of time and magnitude, and the wave structure was not yet complete in 1987, and therefore the wave of social mood the stock market reflected was not yet over.

By: Mitchell

Mitchell — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 18:13:24 +0000

@john 87 was temporary, look it up. Try wikipedia.

A 2000 dow would prove to everyone I've been talking to that I am right. And it will happen soon!

By: john

john — Sun, 24 May 2009 23:21:22 +0000

This article is misleading. After the 87 crash, Prechter turned
perma bear. He didn't view the 87 crash as a temporary setback. If he turned bearish in the late 90's it was only after missing the entire move from 4000 to 10000.

By: John R.

John R. — Sun, 24 May 2009 17:35:12 +0000

Very interesting comments

By: Ron

Ron — Sun, 24 May 2009 15:17:10 +0000

Robert are you saying that due to the government programs we are entering a time of inflation?

By: Martin

Martin — Sun, 24 May 2009 14:03:29 +0000

Thanks for the article, and also to Robert (no.9) - could be Prechter himself talking, and I think he's right. (Fewer thanks to Richard B., who needs to know that the Pope only represents one wing of one religion, a religion that is not at all against birth control, as the Greek Orthodox Church, Anglicans and others will confirm to him). But I write because Martin Hutchinson's article contains one massive unlikelihood: 'Maybe we can combine our views, and agree that the deflation will be of the dollar’s value, so that prices will inflate in dollar terms, but deflate in such other hard currencies as the euro, the renminbi (China’s yuan), or the Brazilian real'. I doubt that Prechter or many others could ally themselves with that, but as you say, 'we'll see'.

By: mike

mike — Sun, 24 May 2009 13:05:08 +0000

If you are trying to attracted business and you think you would like to attracted the people with money (baby boomer's). Take a look at baby boomer's next time you are out and about, you might notice that they are wearing glasses, that means they cannot see as well as they would like too, so why are you using a small font and why are you using a hard to see color, sorry just a question, but it also lets me know how smart you are!

By: Robert

Robert — Fri, 22 May 2009 03:19:52 +0000

Having read Prechter's Conquer the Crash, I think I understand the Elliot Waves and inflation/deflation pretty well now. In Chapter 9, Prechter makes the distinction between currency inflation and credit inflation. If the government were really printing money at the Bureau of Engraving, that would be currency inflation, which can go on indefinitely, and was the kind the Weimar Republic got from a desperate government that was broke and deeply in debt. But in the U.S. we have seen credit inflation. Bank deposits are created out of thin air when a willing borrower borrows money. That creation of deposits inflates the "money" supply. But credit is different from money. It is access to money, rather than money itself. Debt creation has acted like money creation since the 1930's. Debt destruction, such as when a borrower defaults on a loan, destroys the extended credit. When that happens, the credit that acts like money disappears back into thin air. We have entered a time when the social mood behind Elliott Waves has turned toward conservation rather than expansion. To put it another way, people are not in the mood to borrow and go into debt. That means willing borrowers are fewer are farther between while debt defaults, especially on overpriced real estate, are accelerating. That means credit is being destroyed faster than it can be created, which is what happens in deflation. I recall reading within the last year that there is somewhere in the neighborhood of $64 billion in currency, and about $52 trillion in credit in the "money" supply. If most of that credit gets destroyed, we will see a massive contraction in money supply, and existing cash will buy much more. If all but $1 trillion of that credit were to be destroyed, for example, surviving dollars would buy about 50 times as much. If that credit contracts to just $100 billion, we could expect cash to buy about 500 times as much as it does today. And similarly, those in debt would owe roughly 500 times as much in real terms. Social mood is composed of people with minds of their own, herding as their way of coping with uncertainty. And until social mood turns up to favor expansion again, the only way we will get inflation is if the government actually turns on the actual printing presses at the Bureau of Engraving and prints actual currency. The government knows if they do that, however, that would be tantamount to government default, and they will not be able to borrow another dime without paying very high interest, and will then be forced to pay for all government spending with actual tax revenue, and will be strictly limited by taxes it can collect.

By: Doug

Doug — Wed, 20 May 2009 19:59:42 +0000

Crash, baby, crash!

The best thing that could happen for the world as a whole would be for the stock markets to all crash down to nothing and then close down.

Stock markets are not real wealth – they are just a bunch of speculators shuffling money around and gambling on what the artificial value will be in a few hours. They don't create wealth, they leech wealth out of the system by taking fees for their non-productive "services" and by avoiding doing any real work that would help the nation's bottom line.

If all these bankers and speculators and "analysts" were forced to do real work of any kind, we would be able to produce real products and real services at lower cost and be able to successfully compete against workers from all over the world.

By: Richard Bitters

Richard Bitters — Wed, 20 May 2009 03:12:00 +0000

I totally agree with Ken Pipher. I've been 'preaching' for several years that I may not live long enough to see it but the flag that will be someday flying over our capital buildings will be the one already in place in China !! I may also not live to see it but the real culprit of the global meltdown is the population growth and the time will come when cannibalism will be as popular as sliced bread ! "Go forth and multiply" will get us there for sure. Thank you Pope and all religions !

By: james

james — Wed, 20 May 2009 01:03:38 +0000

…"Personally, I would not go that far. This does not look like a reprise of the Great Depression, although it could still turn into one with enough policy mistakes"….

then you don't understand what is happening: there are no "mistakes". this is the INTENTIONAL destruction of civilization. Its an open secret and its been written about by the very people in power now.

The nazi hell creatures who run our world, like that puppet uncle tom in the whitehouse knows exactly what they are doing. the key word is genocide.

Sheeple of the world: your ignorance and heartlessness have finally come home to roost and you are too corrupt to believe they would do this to you.

By: Eugene A. Cerko

Eugene A. Cerko — Tue, 19 May 2009 23:41:03 +0000

The stock market is greatly overvalued and will have to adjust downward sooner or later. An appreciating market based upon hope is sure to spiral downward when the truth is known. Printing money to repair roads is addressing cash flow and putting some money in some pockets for a short period of time – it is NOT addressing the economic promlems. Those problems will grow and the economy will suffer. Metal commodies as well as food will escalate in price. Further printing of money generates a greater dilution of the dollar which will lead to hyperinflation for some years to come until the storm corrects all that has been altered.

Eugene Cerko

By: Ciceroji

Ciceroji — Tue, 19 May 2009 21:51:52 +0000

I have recently started undestand better the fractional reserve system. It seems money is always created out of thin air. If there were a fixed supply of money and growth in goods and services we would have deflation. So then the question is who is printing the money. It is not economic growth which creates money, economic growth allows for money to be printed without inflation. However, the biggest issue I have with the fractional reserve system is where will the money come from to pay the interest. It seems the only solution is massive bankrupties. I think you know who I am sidding with for the long term.

By: ken pipher

ken pipher — Tue, 19 May 2009 20:17:15 +0000

I have no doubt whatsoever that very shortly we will be
entering into hyper-inflation.Concerning China,who has given
the U.S.almost one trillion dollars in loans,what do you amagine
will be their temperment when our currency becomes all but
worthless.China does not fear us,and china can be most
aggressive in their dealings with government policys,or actions
they no longer trust.
My question is this,what do we ultimatly give them in
return for that loan.

By: A Treutler

A Treutler — Tue, 19 May 2009 14:42:35 +0000

Corporate earnings must fall. Double digit growth rates are unrealistic and firing American workers will help only for a flash – we cannot cut ourselves into profitability.

The Long Emergency (by Kunstler) has started indeed.

I side with Prechter on deflation. There will come a point in time when today’s bad medicine will morph into hyperinflation.

My Austrian grandfather told me about the Weimar Republic, about the impossibility of getting bank loans, etc. and how the deflationary world eventually flipped into an insane sea of paper money: he’d take a bucket of money to buy a loaf of bread – and in fact, eventually they would no longer count money, but weigh money.

Prechter is correct. Deflation pushes an economy from fear to a loss of confidence and on to panic printing presses. We are well en route.

By: ssa

ssa — Tue, 19 May 2009 11:14:32 +0000

Hmm.. Money Morning always published a dozen of calls in opposing views… (bull and bear)…

Ultimately.. one of them is going to get it right and you can proclaim victory… like all other analysts.