Comments on: History Hints that Current Stock Market Rally May Be the Leading Edge of a New Bull Market

By: JP

JP — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 22:25:19 +0000

I appreciate your article. It was the first one so far this year that was confidently bullish. I agree with you and I have been strongly bullish for a month or so now. The main source of my confidence in the health of this market is the overwhelmingly pessimistic sentiment of analyst and investors. This means that there is still a lot of money that has yet to enter the market and it has a long way to go. In regards to the increasingly negative economic data such as unemployment, I recognize that the stock market is a leading rather than lagging indicator of such figures. It only further strengthens investor’s pessimism, making the market even stronger. I admire that you were bold enough to be contrary to the majority, which, I believe, is why your opinion will play out. On a final note, it is when I start to see more publications like this one (bullish), that is when I will pull my money out in anticipation of this bull market’s first correction. Once everyone declares that the rally was after all just a rally, that’s when I’ll go long again. It should be amusing to see how many people stay bearish too long which is indicated by the sometimes vehement opposition to bullish forecasts such as yours. Thanks and good luck.

By: Another Dismal Earnings Season for U.S. Companies?

Another Dismal Earnings Season for U.S. Companies? — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 10:18:05 +0000

[...] for bargains, the euphoria fizzled out over the past few weeks as many began to sense that the rally had moved too much too quickly (and the economy still has many issues yet to resolve). Financials, energy, and basic [...]

By: David H.

David H. — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:37:10 +0000

I couldn’t disagree with your analysis more. This economy has been through one crippling disaster after another from losing the Shadow Banking system to the banks getting crushed, the housing market is in total disarray, unemployment is at 9.4% and headed higher, the auto industry has collapsed and the list goes on. If you think this is going to be a simple V shaped recovery I think you are missing the boat. Your own article states: “In May 1929, the Dow zoomed 26% in 13 weeks – only to plunge 38.9% in the 12 weeks that followed.” I think that is much more likely to happen. One of the key indicators I look at is the capacity being used by the Rail Roads to ship goods around the US. 40% of goods are shipped this way and shipments are down 25% in May 2009. Not to mention what Obama is doing to the Dollar and the US Debt, with China and Russia purchasing fewer GVT bonds and talking about getting off the US dollar as the global reserve currency. I think you’re being overly optimistic and a W shaped recovery is much more likely, like the Great Depression you mentioned earlier. The bottom line is we’re not getting out of this mess that easy!!!

By: Captain Bob

Captain Bob — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:47:54 +0000

How many of those historical bull market rallies were accompanied by government spending (and requisite borrowing) on the same scale as our past and current administrations have orchestrated over the last 9 months?

By: A.M. Deist

A.M. Deist — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:14:57 +0000

“With GM now in bankruptcy and Citi struggling to overcome its own problems, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is replacing them with Cisco Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: CSCO) and The Travelers Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TRV) effective June 8.” How easily we can deceive ourselves into making the dow move higher. All we have to do is change the mix to companies that do well in bad economies. Its like the family that gets a new credit card that has no charges and claims their finances are in better shape because they have less debt per credit card than they did the week before, or the guy who eats a hamburger, fries and a milk shake every lunch and when the doctor tells him to go on a diet he eats a hamburger, fries, a milk shake and a salad and thinks he is on a diet. We can tell ourselves over and over that everything is great, as has MSNBC done the past year, but that doesn’t change reality, does it?

By: Larry Kovar

Larry Kovar — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:09:27 +0000

I like how you included the market recap in your article ( the columns).