Comments on: The Two Indicators That Show the Recession is Ending http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/ Global Investment News Fri, 25 May 2012 18:42:41 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: John McDonald http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7421 John McDonald Sun, 16 Aug 2009 15:13:07 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7421 There are liars, big liars and (Gov.) economists to paraphrase Mark twain. What say we cut off one hand of each. That is the penalty for stealing in Sharia law. There are liars, big liars and (Gov.) economists to paraphrase Mark twain. What say we cut off one hand of each. That is the penalty for stealing in Sharia law.

]]> By: Jerry http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7420 Jerry Tue, 11 Aug 2009 17:05:32 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7420 We have not held anyone accountable for this mess. How can we start over with a clean slate? Barney Frank , Chris Dodd and many others should be in irons. Fanny and Freddie should be disbanded. Citibank and other too big to fail institutions should be left to fail. What happened to all the toxic assets? Did they just evaporate? The market is totally disconnected with reality. How do you play it ? We have not held anyone accountable for this mess. How can we start over with a clean slate? Barney Frank , Chris Dodd and many others should be in irons. Fanny and Freddie should be disbanded. Citibank and other too big to fail institutions should be left to fail. What happened to all the toxic assets? Did they just evaporate? The market is totally disconnected with reality. How do you play it ?

]]> By: ed http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7412 ed Tue, 11 Aug 2009 06:03:47 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7412 My charts show that the volatility index is bottoming now and that by September or October should be well on its way back up. Money is also flowing into bonds relatively more than stocks and this indicates that deflation is in our near future. Deflation and a rising dollar will turn this market into the next leg down of the bear market. Long term monthly charts are very reliable if you know how to read them. Don't be fooled after this next leg up in the market get out and look for a good short entry in the September October time period. Again the charts will show you when to enter. This economy is headed for depression I am afraid. My charts show that the volatility index is bottoming now and that by September or October should be well on its way back up. Money is also flowing into bonds relatively more than stocks and this indicates that deflation is in our near future. Deflation and a rising dollar will turn this market into the next leg down of the bear market. Long term monthly charts are very reliable if you know how to read them. Don't be fooled after this next leg up in the market get out and look for a good short entry in the September October time period. Again the charts will show you when to enter. This economy is headed for depression I am afraid.

]]> By: Pete http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7414 Pete Tue, 11 Aug 2009 01:17:47 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7414 I dont see were we are anywhere near the end of the recession. I am certain the recession is over for Wall Street workers and Congressmen, but what about the rest of the nation. Look at these unemployment level maps for California: http://www.localetrends.com/st/ca_california_unemployment.php And South Carolina as well as much of the Southeast is devastated: http://www.localetrends.com/st/sc_south_carolina_unemployment.php I dont see were we are anywhere near the end of the recession. I am certain the recession is over for Wall Street workers and Congressmen, but what about the rest of the nation. Look at these unemployment level maps for California:

http://www.localetrends.com/st/ca_california_unemployment.php

And South Carolina as well as much of the Southeast is devastated:

http://www.localetrends.com/st/sc_south_carolina_unemployment.php

]]> By: digger dan http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7411 digger dan Mon, 10 Aug 2009 16:13:16 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7411 Anyone who thinks this depression is over must either be incredibly crazy or trying to set a trap to run the market up as high as possible before they pull the trigger again.When you interveiw someone from Goldman Sachs and use there info as credible after knowing they have been using a super computer and manipulating the markets for years it puts the crediblity of the publication into serious question.I wouldnt believe ANYTHING , ANYONE said from GOLDMAN SACHS as being credible .There is a method behind there madness and it certinly doesn't have the best interests of any investers at heart. Anyone who thinks this depression is over must either be incredibly crazy or trying to set a trap to run the market up as high as possible before they pull the trigger again.When you interveiw someone from Goldman Sachs and use there info as credible after knowing they have been using a super computer and manipulating the markets for years it puts the crediblity of the publication into serious question.I wouldnt believe ANYTHING , ANYONE said from GOLDMAN SACHS as being credible .There is a method behind there madness and it certinly doesn't have the best interests of any investers at heart.

]]> By: Frank Tolone http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7410 Frank Tolone Mon, 10 Aug 2009 15:16:34 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7410 Very interesting. Thank you. Very interesting. Thank you.

]]> By: Owen Kinnan http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7413 Owen Kinnan Mon, 10 Aug 2009 14:03:40 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7413 I appreciate the article; "The Two Indicators That Show the Recession is Ending." However, I respectfully disagree. I believe that this recession will be long and hard and I don't look for a recovery anytime soon. As to the labor and related unemployment statistics, we know that the Government "cooks the books." The fact that jobs lost were not as great as expected, doesn't prove anything. Jobs were still LOST! Secondly, the Governemnt does not take into consideration, those unemployed who have simply stopped looking for work, or whose unemployment benefits have run out. On Government deficit spending, don't even get me started as the phrase goes. The rising gasoline prices at the pump are doing their part to kill off any small chance of partial recovery. This situation is due in no small part, to inflation caused by massive Government spending and the Federal Reserve attempts to monitize the debt. We now know that most of the so-called "stimulus" was little more than pork and gravy for the most part, and isn't going to work. The housing market is still in the doldrums, and will probably never recover to previous levels. I could go on and on; massive outsourcing of high paying jobs, etc. etc. I just don't buy the idea that we are coming out of anything. In fact, I think it is getting worse. And, to add to all of this, we will all be facing an increase in taxes (in spite of promises to the contrary) and increasing Government intervention in the private sector. This makes for a bad environment all the way around. The stock market indexes will began to fall once again, as the smart money has already left the market, and the Plunge Protection Team finds it more difficult to manipulate the indexes to the upside. I appreciate the article; "The Two Indicators That Show the Recession is Ending." However, I respectfully disagree. I believe that this recession will be long and hard and I don't look for a recovery anytime soon. As to the labor and related unemployment statistics, we know that the Government "cooks the books." The fact that jobs lost were not as great as expected, doesn't prove anything. Jobs were still LOST! Secondly, the Governemnt does not take into consideration, those unemployed who have simply stopped looking for work, or whose unemployment benefits have run out. On Government deficit spending, don't even get me started as the phrase goes. The rising gasoline prices at the pump are doing their part to kill off any small chance of partial recovery. This situation is due in no small part, to inflation caused by massive Government spending and the Federal Reserve attempts to monitize the debt. We now know that most of the so-called "stimulus" was little more than pork and gravy for the most part, and isn't going to work. The housing market is still in the doldrums, and will probably never recover to previous levels. I could go on and on; massive outsourcing of high paying jobs, etc. etc. I just don't buy the idea that we are coming out of anything. In fact, I think it is getting worse. And, to add to all of this, we will all be facing an increase in taxes (in spite of promises to the contrary) and increasing Government intervention in the private sector. This makes for a bad environment all the way around. The stock market indexes will began to fall once again, as the smart money has already left the market, and the Plunge Protection Team finds it more difficult to manipulate the indexes to the upside.

]]> By: Frank Andrews http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7415 Frank Andrews Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:42:27 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7415 Finally some good news. Right now, I will remain a pessimist. Unless the Government forces the Banks to jump in and save the commercial market as well as small business, we ain't seen nut'in yet. If only they would have walked into my office a year and a 1/2 ago and ask someone experiencing their decisions what was going to happen, we could have averted this entire mess. The Government didn't pick up on the serrioousness of this recession until it was way too late. And the people that created this mess are still in office making those big salaries/commissions and leading us down a path of no return. If not this time, next time around we will be doomed. We are setting ourselves up for the great fall. Frank Andrews Brickworks Mornoe, NC Finally some good news. Right now, I will remain a pessimist. Unless the Government forces the Banks to jump in and save the commercial market as well as small business, we ain't seen nut'in yet.

If only they would have walked into my office a year and a 1/2 ago and ask someone experiencing their decisions what was going to happen, we could have averted this entire mess. The Government didn't pick up on the serrioousness of this recession until it was way too late.

And the people that created this mess are still in office making those big salaries/commissions and leading us down a path of no return.

If not this time, next time around we will be doomed. We are setting ourselves up for the great fall.

Frank Andrews
Brickworks
Mornoe, NC

]]> By: ED SUROWIEC http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7416 ED SUROWIEC Mon, 10 Aug 2009 13:23:32 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7416 Hi, I'm retired, and not rich. Can I also benefit from this? Hi, I'm retired, and not rich. Can I also benefit from this?

]]> By: Stephen http://moneymorning.com/2009/08/10/recession-over/comment-page-1/#comment-7417 Stephen Mon, 10 Aug 2009 12:54:44 +0000 http://www.moneymorning.com/?p=8355#comment-7417 A bull market? What utter nonsense. Unemployment is slowing for new claims, but the stats do not capture those who have exhaused benefits or those who have given up looking for a job. True, it is also a lagging indicator. But to look at this (bear market) rally, powerful though it is, as the start of a new secular bull market, is to completely miss the point that the market looks at future earnings of companies to value them. Right now, earnings are pitiful, and those companies who have reported profits are doing so largely on the basis of cutting their expenses, not increasing actual revenues. After the 1929 crash, there was a huge rally, and politicians and pundits announced triumphantly that the recession was over. Those who jumped in to the market got hammered. Be careful out there. S. A bull market? What utter nonsense. Unemployment is slowing for new claims, but the stats do not capture those who have exhaused benefits or those who have given up looking for a job. True, it is also a lagging indicator.

But to look at this (bear market) rally, powerful though it is, as the start of a new secular bull market, is to completely miss the point that the market looks at future earnings of companies to value them. Right now, earnings are pitiful, and those companies who have reported profits are doing so largely on the basis of cutting their expenses, not increasing actual revenues.

After the 1929 crash, there was a huge rally, and politicians and pundits announced triumphantly that the recession was over. Those who jumped in to the market got hammered.

Be careful out there.

S.

]]>