2009 November
With T-Bill Yields at Zero, it's Time to Beware of the "Bond Bears"
There is some interesting action unfolding in the dark corners of the credit market.
Although this exploratory sojourn takes us fairly far afield from our regular stomping grounds in the equity markets, it could have important implications for our investments. So grab a thinking cap, and let's go exploring.
First, let's have some context. As you know, governments around the world have unleashed tons of stimulus spending over the last year. Against a recessionary backdrop, it's no surprise that tax revenue has plummeted while fiscal deficits have soared.
U.S. Economy Will Grow Faster Than Expected, Jobs to Return to Growth Next Year, Economists Say
The U.S. economy will grow faster than expected next year, but job growth will begin later than previously thought, according to a survey of business economists.
A panel of 48 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) showed gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States will grow by 3.2%, but job losses won't bottom until the first quarter of next year. A previous NABE forecast said employers would add 12,000 to payrolls in that quarter.
Markman on the Markets: Is it Time to Buy Monsanto?
Is it time to buy Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON)?
My research tells me that the answer to that question is a definite "yes."
When it comes to basic materials investments, we've talked a lot about gold and steel, but don't forget the agricultural goods. As you can see in the chart that follows, St. Louis-based seed-producer Monsanto last week broke out of a long downtrend and consolidation.
Insights on Insiders: Buying and Selling by Executives and other Corporate Insiders Can Give Investors a Profitable Advantage
Insider stock transactions – the buying and selling of stock by corporate “insiders” – won’t tell you where the overall stock market is headed. But the analysis of this type of legal insider trading can be a handy indicator when it comes to making buy and sell decisions on individual stocks.
In fact, by watching insider transactions, investors can actually gain an edge in certain situations, an academic researcher and leading expert on insider transactions said in an interview with Barron’s earlier this month.
Don't Miss Out on the Looming Gold Bubble
Gold was all the rage again last week. But why is it rising, and does anyone really know what it's worth?
According to the way I calculate momentum, gold has just barely entered the gravity-free zone – where it has the potential to start advancing a lot, with much more fluidity.
And that translates into much higher prices.
Emerging Markets Consider Capital Controls to Combat "Hot Money" Inflows
Concerned with accelerating inflows of so-called "hot money," more emerging market nations are considering new capital controls to keep their currencies from appreciating and prevent asset bubbles from becoming a problem.
Loose monetary policy in the United States and Europe has flooded fast-growing Asian economies where Western investors are seeking higher yields. India, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Indonesia are among the regions investigating options to combat the rapid inflows of foreign capital that are driving up stock prices, and threatening their export sectors by forcing their currencies to appreciate.
"With interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on its Web site.
Investment News Briefs
AOL to Cut One-Third of Workforce; Geithner Rebuffs Calls for Resignation; Oil Follows Equities' Decline; Leading Indicators Hit Two-Year High; U.S. Making Plans for New Iran Sanctions; DirecTV Won't Rule Out Possible Takeover;
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