Comments on: Soaring Lumber Prices and Strong D.R. Horton Report May Not Signal an Immediate Rebound in Housing Stocks

By: don s

don s — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 15:25:25 +0000

owen k., your missing the main point. any gov. statistic is going tobe,a) skewed,b) an outright lie to hide the true desperation of our current situation. If the real numbers were to be released without tweaking and spin, devastating!

By: Owen K.

Owen K. — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 22:13:23 +0000

Interesting article and true that production has been cut back in the US. Lumber prices are due to the following: (yes Haiti but that isn't the whole picture.) Decreased production due to evironmentalists, continued low housing numbers, downturn in commerical real estate. Then last but not least, inflation. Inflation will play a role in all commodities sooner or later, but are at work in lumber and at the gas pump now. As to a rebound in housing stocks, there will be no rebound in housing stocks or in demand. Where are prospective buyers going to come from? Lenders not lending, unemployment up (true unemployment pushing 15-18 percent), incomes down, jobs scarce. Throw all this into the mix and add in the proposed legistlation by HUD to prevent owner financed deals unless the owner lives in the property, and it all spells continued downturn. I believe the worst is yet to come. Batten down the hatches!

By: SP

SP — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 19:56:04 +0000

Haiti??? What does Haiti have to do with lumber futures? It may have a significant importance in construction/building materials, but not so much in lumber. Earthquake proof and Hurricane proof structures use steel and concrete and very little lumber, thus making them more earthquake and hurricane proof. 3rd world contries use concrete as their main building componet because it is readily available evne though it is of poor quality. Steel is not as readilly available which is why most concrete structures in these countries are not reinforced sufficiently to withstand any eathquake of substantial magnitude. This is why you see widespread devistation to structures post earthquake. If you look at the photos of the devistation after the Haiti earthquakes, how much lumber do you see? Virtually none compared to the unreinforced concrete and block that is used everywhere! I believe if you check lumber futures after earthquakes in 3rd world countries, you will find the impact of those events to have very little impact on the lumber commodities market.

By: Joy

Joy — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 13:58:14 +0000

Sounds like Jeff would like Jon's job, in any event he has a very good point on why lumber stock prices are on the rise. Is it the American Republican of Haiti yet? I can't wait to read this story which I have predicted from day 1. Maybe I can get a job writing here too?

By: Ed Worrell

Ed Worrell — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 13:06:50 +0000

The reason timber prices are higher can also be tied to the wet weather. The ground is so wet the timber companies can't get their equipment in or out of the woods which has stalled production.

By: Jeff Pluim

Jeff Pluim — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 14:27:41 +0000

Why do you keep this guy on staff? Doesn't Markman ever read the news or even listen to the news on TV? He continually misses the big picture. I've started reading his articles purely for a laugh.
Jon, pay attention. HAITI. HAITI.
Shipments of lumber have already been booked for the reconstruction in Haiti. There is going to be a huge demand for building materials for the next 2 to 3 years because they are building modern, earthquake and hurricane proof buildings.
Remember, Money Morning Editor, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Your publication is weakened by the narrow minded view that Markman seems to continually express.

By: Stephen D. Pierce

Stephen D. Pierce — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 13:09:58 +0000

After just reading the article this morning and learning about Form 13F and its requirement to file if you own 100 million in US stock, poses the question to me of how many people in China own only 99 million and are not required to file. This could be a large cumlative number.