Buy Sell Hold: Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is a Turnaround Play Worthy of Long-Term Investment

Email

While U.S. unemployment is still high and showing no real signs of receding, there are a few indications that the economy is slowly edging back toward a pattern of sustained growth.

That's important because smart investors are always looking for a turnaround play – that is, a situation that has changed the underlying market dynamics surrounding it.

In today's case, we look at a company – Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) – that just last week reported its best quarterly results since the third quarter of 2008.

Alcoa in the last 10 quarters laid-off 20,000 employees as management attacked its cost structure by closing facilities around the world. And today it is a much leaner company and better prepared for the future than it was in the fall of 2008.

As a result, the company reported fourth-quarter net income of $258 million, or 24 cents per share, excluding special items. That compares to a net loss of $277 million, or 28 cents per share, during the same period a year earlier.

"The increase in aluminum prices has more than offset high material and industry costs as well as the impact of a weaker U.S. dollar," Alcoa Chief Financial Officer Charles D. McLane Jr. said on the company's earnings conference call. "Each of our businesses was able to significantly improve their performance."

Alcoa operates in 31 countries, giving it diverse exposure to global economic demands. This global reach allows the company to accurately adjust its supply. In the case of the United States, demand has increased enough that Alcoa has announced plans to remove three plants from mothball status. That will let the company resume 137,000 tons worth of production and restore the lost jobs – a positive for local communities.

Alcoa has a market cap of $16.5 billion with an enterprise value of more than $25 billion. The company generated more than $20 billion in revenue in the trailing 12-month period. Its stock pays a small dividend of 0.75%, which is about what you would expect to get in a money market account.

However, Alcoa historically has paid a significantly higher rate. In fact, the company over the last five years has averaged a 2.5% dividend yield. So I expect that the payout will be increased as soon as Alcoa can show that its balance sheet is fully repaired from the restructuring process.

I love to find turn around stories in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. These stocks are liquid and typically have enough analyst coverage to provide a peek into what Wall Street expects.

There also is an interesting aspect of the market that you rarely see explained. When a turnaround stock starts to show true signs of having made the turn, Wall Street analysts will typically come out of nowhere to downgrade the stock. The masters of the street, who failed to anticipate the company's fall from grace, will be there to dog pile onto its stock as it becomes a lower risk investment.

But that's actually a good thing. It is a sign that someone actually wants to buy the shares again. It is street talk for "Please ignore this stock until our buyers are finished loading up on it."

All you have to do to get a sense of how the game is played is look at the activity in the ratings. Try taking the number of analyst upgrades in the past year and divide it by the number of downgrades during the same time period – then invert for reality. No joke. Try it.

So let's review why Alcoa is a "Buy":

  • Its earnings have bounced back.
  • There's a good chance its dividend will be increased.
  • It's once again increasing capacity in the United States.
  • The company has a bullish "inverted analyst" rating.

The bottom line: Alcoa has made the hard decisions that were necessary to become profitable in new economy. It deserves a spot in our long-term portfolio.

Action to Take: Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) is a liquid stock with a liquid options market. We can buy it at market, but we can also try a naked put entry strategy to lower our overall basis.

So let's buy half of our overall allotment of Alcoa Inc. stock at market(**). Once we have our core holdings at market, we can add this stock to our covered call strategy, generating additional cash income.

If we write the April 18 calls (CUSIP AA110416C00018000) on our core holdings, we can generate an extra 40 cents of cash per share.

We can also write naked puts with a strike for 16 in April 2011 for our second half of the position.

They (CUSIP AA110416P00016000) are currently bid 0.92 x 0.95 giving us an entry of around $15.10 and change on a $16.25 dollar stock today, if it closes below $16 on April 15.

So while its dividend rate is low, we can still generate regular income from the position by using naked puts to grow our cash hoard while we wait to add to the overall position.

While the stock has moved up a lot lately, it also needs to digest these moves. If we are patient with our entry and exits, you can generate regular extra cash income from waiting to buy the second half of the position, and also by writing covered calls on the current core holdings that are purchased at market.

(**) Special Note of Disclosure: Jack Barnes holds no interest in Alcoa Inc.

[Editor's Note: If you like this kind of deep research and specific investment recommendations - but you want them on a regular basis - you should take a very close look at our monthly affiliate newsletter, The Money Map Report.

Each month, the gurus who write for Money Morning get together and identify the very best profit opportunities. And they do that by "following the money" - spotlighting the global money-flows that point to very best profit opportunities that you'll read about anywhere.

The writers for The Money Map Report are the same investing gurus whose columns you read here each day. The difference is that while Money Morning is news and investment analysis, The Money Map Report is dedicated solely to investment analysis.

Our writers use proprietary money-flow indicators to identify and isolate the most timely profit opportunities you'll find anywhere. For more information about The Money Map Report, please click here.

"Buy, Sell or Hold" columnist Jack Barnes started his career at Franklin Templeton in 1997, working in the company's fund-information department - just as the Asian contagion infected the Asian tiger countries. He launched his own RIA shop in 2003, just as the second Gulf War was breaking out. In early 2006, after logging a one-year return of nearly 83%, Forbes named Barnes the top stock picker in its "Armchair Investors Who Beat the Pros" competition. His two audited hedge funds generated double-digit returns in 2008. Barnes - the author of the popular blog, "Confessions of a Macro Contrarian" - retired to the beach in the summer of 2009, and continues to write from there now.]

News and Related Story Links:

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

  1. perry | January 17, 2011

    somehow i stopped getting the money morning newsletter recently and am signing up again

  2. Lee Pulsipher | January 17, 2011

    Status of AA sounds similar to the status of Citi around last June, which I bought at just over $3. It's now over $5.

    Learned my lesson the hard way with Dow Chemical, which I bought at $31 in 2008 and sold on Mar 9,2009 at $6.48! An expensive lesson in how to lose money on prime stocks.

    Lessons learned: Use protective stops and buy value when most others are selling or an otherwise strong established company is out of favor.

  3. Bob Babiar | January 17, 2011

    THE INFORMATION ON AA IS RIGHT ON.
    YOUR STRATEGY IS VERY COMMON WITH ME.

    THANK YOU

  4. fabian | January 18, 2011

    Excelent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


− 3 = two

Some HTML is OK