Canada: Investing in the World's Safest Economy Can Put Profits in Your Pocket

[Editor's Note: In this latest installment of Money Morning's "quarterly outlook" series, columnist Martin Hutchinson takes a look at our neighbor to the north - and likes what he sees. Upcoming installments will look at oil, emerging markets, silver and other key investment topics - and will detail their prospects for the second quarter.]

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When a March 25 "no-confidence" vote toppled the government of Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it also set the stage for a new general election.

This May 2 election will be Canada's third in five years and fourth in seven years. In light of the civil unrest in the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) region – not to mention the financial problems that continue to plague Europe – it would be understandable if global investors added Canada to the "do not invest" list.Money Morning Quarterly Report

But don't make that mistake: Our neighbor to the north remains one of the most stable big-market profit plays on the planet today.

Some investors even refer to it as the "world's safest economy." And with good reason.


High Upside

Any worries about political stability are essentially groundless – and for two very good reasons:

  • First, opinion polls currently show a result almost identical to that of the previous election in 2008.
  • And, second, even a left-of-center coalition between the Liberals and the new Democrats would make only modest changes to Canada's stable economy.

The Economist team of forecasters projects Canada's growth at 2.6% to 2.8% in 2012. That forecast puts Canada's economic growth rate at slightly below the growth rate of its U.S. counterpart, but I believe that it's a bit pessimistic – Canada's growth has been running at well over 3% for the last year.

Canada's inflation rate is very similar to that of the United States, while its payments deficit is actually a bit less (it has risen recently, due to the rising Canadian dollar – a currency that's known as the "loonie"). But with a budget deficit of about 2.1% of gross domestic product (GDP), Canada's deficit situation is much better than it is here in the United States.

(In the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO) economic outlook report, the nonpartisan body recently estimated the U.S. budget deficit would reach $1.5 trillion in 2011, or 9.8% of GDP.)

Monetary policy is a bit tighter in Canada than it is here in the United States: The Bank of Canada has its target interest rate at 1.0%, while policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve have the benchmark Federal Funds rate at 0.00% to 0.25%.

And it's not just in terms of fiscal and monetary policy that's seen Canada achieve a better overall economic balance than its U.S. counterpart: Canada has a relatively larger resources sector, too – a major advantage when energy and commodity prices are driven upward by Asian demand.

Low Risk Politically

Since 2006, Canada has been run by a minority Conservative government, headed by Harper. The Harper government acted with great prudence during the financial crisis, succumbing only mildly to the (ill-advised) joys of bank bailouts and "stimulus."

Needless to say, the country has been greatly aided by the fact that Canada's banking and housing sectors were much more conservative than their U.S. counterparts, and had no equivalents of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM-R) and Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCCM).

If Canada has erred, it has done so with its tendency to succumb to trendy environmental nostrums – for instance, banning permission on specious grounds for a highly beneficial gold mine project of Taseko Mines Ltd. (AMEX: TGB).

That's why there is not much political risk. The Liberal Party of Canada, the main alternative to Harper, is not particularly left-wing. It had an excellent record of fiscal prudence in the office in the 1990s when it brought Canadian government spending down from levels that threatened bankruptcy, and is only mildly more liable to succumb to foolish and economically damaging nostrums than the Conservatives.

Its likely partners in a minority government, the NDP, are more leftist, close in approach to the British Labour party, but are not likely to be strong enough to force policy changes of any substance.

Moves to Make Now

There are a number of possible approaches to investing in Canada. One is to buy the market as a whole, investing in the Canadian market exchange-traded fund (ETF), the iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (NYSE: EWC). That fund has a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 and a yield of 1.5% currently, so the Canadian market overall is reasonably priced.

A second possible approach is to buy one of the five large Canadian banks, where Canada has a clear competitive advantage over the United States because of better regulation. Of these, I like the Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) best. That's trading at 16 times earnings, with a nice dividend yield of 3.2%. Its Price/Book (P/B) Value ratio is a reasonable 2.0, while its P/E falls to 11.9 on expected 2012 earnings.

Rather than Canadian industrials, I prefer to concentrate my non-bank Canadian holdings in the resources sector. Canada's most important strategic relationship with the United States is in the supply of energy, both from conventional oil and gas and from the Athabasca tar sands deposits in Alberta.

Of the Canadian oil plays, I most like Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU), because of its position as the most important producer of tar sands oil. This is only modestly profitable at current oil prices, but if prices run up or a global crisis restricts supplies, Suncor can be expected to increase hugely in profitability. It is currently at 19 times trailing earnings, but only 16 times expected 2012 earnings (which probably have not been adjusted for oil prices well above $100 per barrel).

Finally, in Canada's very important minerals sector, I like Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TCK) which is a major producer of coal, copperand other metals. It has the Chinese government's China Investment Corp. sovereign wealth fund as a 17% strategic shareholder (one of CIC's few really profitable deals, up over 100% since it bought close to the bottom of the market).

Teck is trading at a reasonable 16.5 times earnings, and a remarkably reasonable 8.4 times expected 2012 earnings. It is due to benefit further from the global scarcity in copper and from completion of coal infrastructure, enabling it to ship efficiently to the Chinese market from Canada's West Coast.

Canada offers a diversification from the U.S. economy, exposure to the booming minerals sector and very little extra risk. You should have some money there.

Actions to Take: Because Canada offers a diversification from the U.S. economy, exposure to the booming minerals sector and very little extra risk, it should be represented in most global-investing portfolios.

For the most-risk-averse investors, a good move is to buy the Canadian market, investing in the Canadian market exchange-traded fund (ETF), the iShares MSCI Canada Index ETF (NYSE: EWC). That fund has a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 and a yield of 1.5%, both reasonable valuations.

In the banking sector, Canada has a clear competitive advantage over the United States because of better regulation. Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD) may be the best of Canada's big banks. It is trading at 16 times earnings, with a nice dividend yield of 3.2%. Its Price/Book (P/B) Value ratio is a reasonable 2.0, while its P/E falls to 11.9 on expected 2012 earnings.

Canada's most important strategic relationship with the United States is in the supply of energy, both from conventional oil and gas and from the Athabasca tar sands deposits in Alberta. A solid play with lots of possible upside is Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE: SU), because of its position as the most important producer of tar sands oil. This is only modestly profitable at current oil prices, but if prices run up or a global crisis restricts supplies, Suncor can be expected to increase hugely in profitability. It is currently at 19 times trailing earnings, but only 16 times expected 2012 earnings (which probably have not been adjusted for oil prices well above $100 per barrel).

Finally, in Canada's very important minerals sector, check out Teck Resources Ltd. (NYSE: TCK) which is a major producer of coal, copperand other metals. It has the Chinese government's China Investment Corp. sovereign wealth fund as a 17% strategic shareholder (one of CIC's few really profitable deals, up over 100% since it bought close to the bottom of the market).

[Editor's Note: Back in October 2007, Money Morning's Martin Hutchinson told readers that there would be a "gold bubble," and even outlined ways to earn windfall profits.

As we all know, Hutchinson has made lots of prescient market calls - a made a lot of money for those who listened.

But his gold "call" is particularly interesting today, for two reasons:

  • First, gold was trading at about $770 an ounce when he made that prediction.
  • And, second, gold futures closed yesterday at an all-time record of $1,452.50 - meaning those readers who took Hutchinson's advice on the "yellow metal" have made as much a 89% from this one prediction.

And, as we noted, Hutchinson has made many such calls.

Once a global merchant banker who worked as a financial advisor to governments abroad, Hutchinson has established an advisory service for individual investors. It's called "The Merchant Banker Alert" and it can be yours as part of this special offer. Please click here to find out more.]

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Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

  1. Tom Stiebler | April 12, 2011

    I don't think anyone who owned a Canadian Income Trust and got slaughtered by 40% overnight due to the lying Canadian government would agree with your assessment as "one of the most stable big-market profit plays on the planet today".

  2. joe murt | April 12, 2011

    I'm kind of new at this but how about investments south of the boarder. What does anybody think about them. I apreciate this article and lean towards the case/story presented, but I admittedly have a limited view or scope. I wonder if the countries so close to the US have opportunities that will be magnified as time goes on. I've just made a little money investing in Telephonica because of the social media events in the mideast. These topics may not be very related but what might be the synergistic growth of the markets that enjoy close proximity to the U.S but not be hampered with U.S. problems, limits, or excesses.
    Not an expatriate,
    Joe

  3. David E. | April 12, 2011

    As we speak, the NDP party is leading at the opinion polls, they have 51% of the popular vote.
    The Conservatives have 45% and the Liberals have 5%.
    It looks like a landslide for the NDP party.

  4. Theo Müller (PHIL MUELLER67697) | April 12, 2011

    Dear Martin,

    Thanks so much for the good information.

    We hear fro a Indian Car company – that should be " The Morningstar of the future car".

    Do you konw what company that is?

    Thank you so muc hfor your help.
    Kind regards
    Theo

  5. william barnes | April 12, 2011

    There are a few of things you missed: 1)Canada bailed out their banks to the tune of 75 billion dollars. 2) They did this using CMHC which IS much like Fannie Mae and Freddy
    Mac in that it insures mortgages and buys toxic assets from the banks. 3)Canada's economy is strongly tied to the US economy.If it goes down,we go down. Thank you,Sincerely William Barnes

  6. ED BRAUN | April 12, 2011

    Please do not refer to the oil sand as tar sands. In Canada it is mainly the opponents of development,theCBC ,enviros,and the left leaning that call oil sands tar sands .

    Thank you

    Ed

  7. Susan Heller | April 12, 2011

    Isn't Alberta thinking of limiting the area where tar sands can be mined? They are planning a hige environmental preserve area and this will impact many of the tar sands companies.

  8. john berz | April 12, 2011

    everybody seems to ignore the fact canada has a housing bubble of enormous proportions. The canadian banks were not so conservative as to not give out highly leveraged mortgage loans i.e. 5 percent down on the purchase of a $500,000 property. Affordable, maybe with 4.5percent rates but canadian banks do not give out 30 year mortgages with fixed rates for that long. So what happens when rates return to historically normal levels say 7,8 or 10 percent. You do the math. As mr. barnes pointed out the canadian economy is tied to the U.S

  9. Terry Warner | April 13, 2011

    With Respect, Mr. Barnes the Canadian government DID NOT, DOES bailed out a bank. In the recent ression no Canadian banks failed and the CMHC does not buy toxic assets. Further the Canadian economy was closely tied to the American economy however the Canadian economy is becoming more closely tied to the Pacific Rim.

    Respectfully

    T.L. Warner, P.Geo., P.Geol.

  10. Michael Bickley | April 19, 2011

    Most of my investments for the last 3 years have been in Canada.In that time the Canadian dollar has appreciated by 25-30%.2 stocks form the majority of my holdings there.One is WSX.V an oil producer that has doubled since I bought it and the second one that I have just bought is SPM.T a silver producer in Mexico.

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