Global Economic Intersection Article of the Week
We've all heard the cliché about Dr. Copper. It's so cliché by now that I'd be embarrassed to even repeat it. But that cute saying has more to do with the fact that the price of copper is a relatively good gauge indicating the health of the economy, than offering a true reflection of the health of the equities markets. After all, the action in the stock markets has become so disconnected from the real economy (in essence, from 'reality') that I sometimes wonder whether the stock markets are even going to be in existence a decade from now. Nonetheless, what I'd like to demonstrate here is that copper, as a truly good representative of industrial materials (commodities), also relates to the stock markets in such a way that it can provide us with very sound signals about the future direction for equities.
Follow up:
At this time, it appears to be issuing a very stern warning, a warning that in the past has been very accurate and dependable... to get the hell out of equities.
In an effort to provide a better, and far more accurate, picture of the real effects of inflation, I presented a study back in April of 2011 which showed the S&P 500 as priced in oil. Needless to say it offered a much clearer picture of the real value of the S&P and was indeed very revealing. Disgustingly so, because that study exposed the fact that while equities had indeed risen in nominal terms since 1999, the price of oil had actually increased at 870% the pace. For anyone who might be interested in reviewing that particular analysis, it can be found by clicking here. But before you do that, I beg your kind understanding that this article was written at the beginning go my little foray into the world of publishing articles (at the behest of several of my friends at Seeking Alpha). I was a neophyte. I hadn't yet thought of better ways to display charts so that they weren't quite so 'busy'. I didn't consider myself to be an particularly good writer back then and as far as I'm concerned I still isn't.
So far, we have discussed two different comparative studies: a) the S&P as priced in real (but grossly manipulated) money, namely gold.... and b) the S&P as priced in 'fuel' that a healthy economy requires... oil. There was a third, one which I address in the footnote and which is relating the S&P to the $CRX. But what we're going to investigate here is a 4th way of pricing the S&P 500... as priced in one of the most commonly used 'materials' consumed in a healthy and growing 'industrial' economy... and of course we're talking about copper.
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Tags: Copper







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