Archives for January 2012

January 2012 - Page 2 of 11 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Before You Get Excited About the Facebook IPO...

For more than a year there has been rampant speculation about a Facebook IPO, and now it finally appears as though one is on the way.

The social media giant could file papers for an initial public offering as soon as Wednesday, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. The company is looking at a deal that would value the social media giant between $75 billion and $100 billion, the WSJ reported, making it one of the biggest in U.S. history.

Scott Sweet of IPO Boutique told MarketWatch a Facebook IPO will likely lead to "pandemonium."

"It's absolutely massive," Sweet said in an interview. "The mere drop of a hint will cause pandemonium."

Facebook is looking to raise as much as $10 billion, which would make it the fourth-largest U.S. IPO behind Visa Inc. (NYSE: V), General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM), and AT&T Wireless. A $100 billion valuation would make Facebook worth as much as global powerhouse McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD).

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Yahoo's New CEO: The One Thing Scott Thompson Needs to Do

Four months after chief executive Carol Bartz was let go, Yahoo Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) appointed new CEO Scott Thompson to salvage the sinking Internet company and do something Bartz couldn't – win shareholder support.

Thompson, most recently president of eBay Inc.'s (Nasdaq: EBAY) PayPal unit, is taking over the lead role. Yahoo is in dire need of new strategies to increase site traffic and attract advertisers if it hopes to defend against increasing competition from tech giants Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) and Facebook Inc.

Shareholders were frustrated with the decision, however, since they were pushing for the struggling Yahoo to sell.

"It's probably a slight negative because I think the best outcome for Yahoo would be an all out takeover by Microsoft," Brett Harriss, an analyst at Gabelli & Co., told Bloomberg News. "Hiring a new CEO makes the sale of the whole company unlikely."

Thompson is the company's fourth CEO in five years. Now the pressure's on him to win over shareholders and inspire investor confidence before the share price plunges.

Read More…

How Presidential Candidate Ron Paul's Campaign Could End the Fed

Led by presidential candidate Ron Paul's "end the Fed" mantra, Republicans have made their attacks on the U.S. Federal Reserve into an election year rallying cry.

It's one that could turn ugly in November if the GOP manages to score big.

Where Paul has been the lone voice in the wilderness criticizing the central bank for years, others in the GOP recently adopted the Fed as a scapegoat for the financial crisis of 2008.

Many of the Republican attacks include calls to fire Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and to scale back the Fed's mandate – or in Paul's case, eradicate it altogether.

And while Paul – who actually wrote a book called "End the Fed" in 2008 – has little chance of becoming the nominee, his campaign does have a larger philosophical objective.

"It is Paul's goal to permanently establish within the Republican Party a group that is dead set on not having the Fed," Douglas Holtz-Eakin, chief economic adviser to Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, during his 2008 run for the presidency,told MarketWatch. "This is not going away."

Ron Paul Scores Big With Younger Voters

Although Paul's overall support generally hovers in the low double digits, his message is very popular among younger Republican voters.

Paul won 48% of the under-30 vote in Iowa, 47% of the under-30 vote in New Hampshire and 31% in South Carolina. It's a demographic every candidate covets.

Paul's resonance with young voters, combined with the public's dim view of the Fed has set off an all-out GOP assault on the central bank.

For added juice, Republicans in general have sought to tie their criticisms of the Fed to U.S. President Barack Obama and the Democrats.

"If you are a [Republican] running for Congress – those freshmen in the House – they thought that Bernanke was walking around talking about buying assets for Obama to make it easier for him to spend," Holtz-Eakin told MarketWatch. "It lit the fuse."

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Better Than Brazil: How to Invest in a Colombian Safe Haven

What's an investor to do?…

The Eurozone is about to collapse. The United States is struggling out of the deepest recession since World War II. And the IMF forecasts global growth will drop from 5% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2012.

How about investing in a safe haven far away from all of these troubles – one where you can actually watch your money grow?

I have found one in Colombia. Let me tell you why.

It is because Colombia is no longer a place controlled by drug kingpins or ripped apart by civil war. Colombia is a country on the comeback.

This revival began in 2002 when former president Alvaro Uribe decided to take on both the leftist guerillas and the drug barons. Since then, his successor Jose Santos has followed up on those policies, and they have worked.

In 2011, Colombia's homicides dropped by 5% to 14,746 and its murder rate dropped to 33 per 100,000 of population.

Admittedly, that's still five times the U.S. level, but these things are relative – it's half the level it was just four years ago.

Foreign investors have noticed, and last year, foreign investment in Colombia was up 56% to $14.8 billion.

Colombia Beats Brazil

In fact, according to the World Bank's "Doing Business" survey, Colombia ranked 42 out of 183 countries.

That was near the top spot in Latin America and far above Brazil's appalling rank of 126. Only Chile was higher with a rank of 39.

Stock market investors have noticed this, too – in the second half of 2011 Colombia had $4.9 billion of initial public offerings, the most in Latin America – and yes, again ahead of Brazil!

On the macroeconomic side, Colombia is sound, with public debt at just 45% of gross domestic product (GDP), a modest budget deficit, inflation just over 3% and the central bank base rate at 4.75% — no Ben Bernanke nonsense of zero interest rates!

Colombia has also gotten a boost by a surge in oil production, with exploration now possible in areas that had been "no go" for foreign investors for decades.

In November 2011, oil production was 920,000 barrels/day, up 17.5% from the previous year. Oil and minerals were responsible for 82% of Colombia's 2011 foreign investment, so the potential for investors is immense.

However, the real reason why Colombia is so attractive

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Don’t Be A Wall Street Patsy

You want to know the truth? The truth is that Wall Street has stacked the deck against you.

That's why you need to understand how the game is played. Otherwise you'll end up a Wall Street patsy.

So, here's the truth along with some lessons that will help you play the game like a pro.

First, though, we'll need to debunk a few myths…

Let's start with the myth that the Street lowered brokerage charges for the benefit of retail investors. At one time, these fees used to be obscenely high and fixed.

But, on May 1, 1975, fixed commissions were abolished after brash upstarts like Charles Schwab and disgruntled investors decided to attack The Street's price-fixing schemes.

The negotiated commissions regime that followed lowered the cost of access to the stock market, essentially ushering in the era of the "individual investor."

The influx of these individual investors, many of whom didn't have enough money to create diversified portfolios, soon became a boon for mutual funds – which have since grown like weeds in an untended sod farm.

Wall Street Changed the Game

Since the commission business was no longer profitable, Wall Street moved its retail business to an "assets under management" model.

So instead of making money on commissions the game changed to gathering as many assets as you could into a retail investor's account and charging a fee to "manage" them; in other words, just watch them.

That's one of the reasons why Wall Street advocates a "buy and hold" strategy for retail investors. They don't want you to take those assets away from them.

It's the same thing with mutual funds.

And conveniently, if your broker puts you into mutual funds that are losers, it's not your broker's fault.

Now, it's the mutual fund manager's fault. That way the broker can't be blamed if your account loses money.

Instead, your broker can tell you, "Don't fire me, let's fire the mutual fund manager and let's find you a better fund to invest in. But, no matter what happens, we need to buy and hold and not try and time the market."

That's what retail investors are told to do over and over and over again.

But guess what? That's definitely not what Wall Street firms do.

In fact, while you're being told to buy and hold, exchange specialists, market-makers, hedge funds and every trading desk at every Wall Street bank and firm are busy trading.

Some individual investors began to see how Wall Street was really making its money and started trading themselves.

Of course, that only increased the competition for easy trades as more retail investors traded in and out of stocks.

To continue their advantage over the public, Wall Street fought to do away with the uptick rule. The rule was wiped out so traders could short sell any stock at any time.

But it's the big Wall Street players who benefit from the rule change because they can use their huge capital positions and work with each other to drive down stocks they have shorted.

Who gets hurt? The buy-and-hold retail investors who are told to buy more at lower prices are the ones who get fleeced.

And, who is selling to them?…

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Subscribers Flock to Rebounding Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) - Time For Investors To Follow

Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) beat expectations with an earnings report Wednesday after the bell that sent its stock up more than 14% in after-hours trading, and set the stage for a stock rally in 2012.

The company reported U.S. subscribers in the fourth quarter jumped by 610,000 to reach 24.4 million. The increase helped recoup the 800,000 U.S. customers Netflix lost in the third quarter after it changed monthly rates.

The video rental and streaming company reported surprisingly good earnings for the fourth quarter. Net income was 73 cents a share, about 33% higher than The Street's estimate of 55 cents a share. Revenue rose 47% from a year ago to $876 million, compared to analysts' estimated $857.3 million.

By 1 p.m. Netflix shares today (Thursday) had soared 21% to just over $115.

Today's stock boost offers investors a much needed price spike as NFLX stabilizes its business from a tumultuous 2011. After the company announced a 60% price increase and a business segment spin off, frustrated subscribers attacked Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings and cancelled subscriptions.

The stock took a toll – tumbling from a mid-year high of $305 to a yearly low of $62.37 by Nov. 30. The share price ended 2011 down 61%.

Read More…

Another Bernanke Market Rally

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a weak U.S. economic outlook this week, triggering speculation that the Fed will be warming the printing presses and injecting more money into the economy. The anticipation has caused a market chain reaction for the dollar, gold, and energy-related investments. Check out what Keith Fitz-Gerald had to say […]

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Money-Markets, CDs, and Bonds: The Ups and Downs of Stashing Your Cash

In today's volatile markets many investors are faced with the same troublesome question – "Where should I park my cash?"

In fact, investors have withdrawn a net total of $328 billion from the stock market since 2007, according to Strategic Insight.

Ever since, a big portion that cash has been looking for a home.

It seems simple enough, but investors are finding the answer to be more complicated than they imagined…

Thanks to our friends at the Federal Reserve, interest rates are at record lows. In fact, they're so low that most investors are getting practically nothing in returns.

Meanwhile, the stock market has put on a New Year's rally, rewarding those who were willing to jump in while leaving cautious investors wondering if they're holding too much boring old cash.

However, in order to have an adequate safety net, your cash on hand should be enough to cover about a year's worth of expenses, according to Shah Gilani, a retired hedge fund manager and Editor of the acclaimed Wall Street Insights & Indictments newsletter.

"That's a good safety net," Shah says.

But no matter how much cash you hold, you still have to balance your need for higher returns against your risk tolerance.

Because whether you're thinking "safety first" or are tempted to reach for a little more yield, the choice you make might determine whether you're able to sleep at night.

Three Places to Park Your Cash

With that in mind, here's a look at three of the most popular places to park your cash.

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Why Energy Investors Will Get Crushed If They Fail to Look Towards Dubai

The way I see it, U.S. and European energy traders will be lucky if the door doesn't hit them in the backsides as everybody heads for the doors.

Like so many Western investors, they still have their blinders on.

They think that if demand in the U.S. and the European Union (EU) begins to slide that oil prices will fall into the toilet right along with it.

But what they don't see is that Asian oil demand is what actually "drives" the global oil market.
This is why today's investors need to adopt an energy investment strategy focused on what is happening on the other side of the Pacific.

Because what happens there is critical to higher prices and profits here.

Here's why.

First, consider Asian demand.

In the fourth quarter alone, Asian demand increased by 400,000 barrels per day even as consumption in the rest of the world fell by 700,000 barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Meanwhile, Chinese demand in particular is so strong that the Red Dragon is set to import more oil than the United States within two years, according to my projections.

And don't take my word for it. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) thinks the U.S. will be overtaken by China this year, while the IEA believes it will happen in 2020.

I think that's splitting hairs frankly.

What matters is that Asian oil demand growth is likely to represent a staggering 70% of the world's total oil demand growth this year. Or more depending on which studies you believe.

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Liquidity Liquor and the Battle Ahead

Equity markets have been charging ahead for a few weeks. Not just here in the U.S., either.

They've been rising in Europe too. Even China's Shanghai Composite, after falling 22% last year, has been percolating higher.

Thanks to the ECB filling Europe's punchbowl, last year's sovereign debt hangover has been mellowed by some 100-proof "hair-of-the-dog" liquidity liquor…

And it feels good.

This party atmosphere is infectious!

After the European Central Bank (ECB) poured some $600 billion (and counting) into the party bowl and let teetering European banks ladle themselves out as much as they could stomach, the Federal Reserve signaled that it wanted to throw in some free "shots," in the form of more quantitative easing or some other easy money contribution, to make sure Europe isn't the only party house on the block.

And now the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – the usually stodgy party-poopers of fiscal discipline fame – are trying to get themselves invited!

They know they're not usually welcome while any economic bacchanal is raging, so they're asking for donations of $500 billion to $600 billion (on top of the $400 billion in commitments they're already packing), so they can man the kegs and stills and pump in whatever juice is necessary to make the budding soiree a true world party.

It's amazing how giddy easy money makes everyone feel.

How else could we go from fearing the next "Lehman moment" to feeling like there's enough money and time for over-indebted countries and increasingly strung-out banks to heal themselves?

Don't get me wrong: I love a good party. I'll stay until the music stops, or until the punchbowl is empty. I just hope I hear the music stop before everyone realizes the punchbowl's been cracked.

There's no reason not to be participating in this rally. And there's no reason not to be aware of what's driving it.

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