By The 2016 Election Gold Could Be $3700 an Ounce

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It's now two years and two billion dollars later…


And in many ways, we're right back where we started with the same President, and a house divided.


For investors, all the uncertainty this situation brings to the fiscal cliff and its impending tax increases and spending cuts are likely to fuel plenty of volatility for the next several months.


Yesterday's almost 300 point drop on the Dow and a 7% pop in the VIX are good examples of this.


We can also expect Ben Bernanke to be in place until at least early 2014. The only change I expect from the Fed now is more frequent and still larger easing campaigns, as well as potentially extending low rates, again, beyond mid-2015. Even if Bernanke is replaced, I expect only more of the same seriously misguided policies.


In fact, just yesterday San Francisco Fed President John Williams hinted that the most recent QE3 bond buying program could well exceed $600 billion.


So what does all of this mean to investors in hard assets–particularly those with holdings in gold and silver?

Since Obama was elected in 2008, gold is up 116% and silver us up a whopping 198%.


Honestly, I expect a similar performance could well be enjoyed over the next four years. Constant easy money, extreme low interest rates, mounting uncertainty, and growing investment demand are likely to be the drivers.


If this plays out, by the time the next election rolls around in 2016, we could be looking at $3,700 gold and silver may be trading at $95. Frankly, I could see both of these levels easily surpassed.


As for energy, keep in mind that Obama has stated that he's strongly behind the "green" kind. That puts him in a quandary over natural gas.


Certainly, it burns more cleanly than either oil or coal. But much of the new supply comes from shale. That means a lot of fracking is required to get at it. The problem is there is a fair amount of environmental opposition to fracking, since those groups believe it can pollute aquifers, and cause minor seismic events.


The Obama administration's Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is attempting to impose daunting new regulations on both federal and tribal lands, adding on layers of reporting and compliance costs.


As for coal, Obama's made no bones about how much he's against it, even if he does talk up clean coal technologies from time to time. Despite coal stocks being down about 50% since mid-year, they lost another 5% yesterday. There's a good chance much of the bad news has already been factored in, so coal stocks could actually turn out to be an interesting contrarian play going forward.


Uranium and nuclear power have taken it on the chin since Japan's Fukushima disaster.


But Obama has been a big supporter since he campaigned in 2008, promising nuclear power would stay as part of the "energy mix". Billions in loans guarantees have been promised to large nuclear power utilities.


Like coal, nuclear stocks are down, in this case about 35% in the past two years.


But a large supply of uranium from the Russian Megatons to Megawatts program will expire next year. Large and developing Asian nations continue to build reactors for cost-effective energy. As well, the power hungry economies of Germany and Japan, both of whom claim they will lessen their dependence on nuclear power, are likely to backtrack in the future as energy costs from other sources skyrocket. Nuclear power and uranium are also looking like potentially good long term contrarian trades at this point.


No matter how you slice it, the next four years will be rocky. Volatility will increase and uncertainty will spread.


In the face of that, precious metals are a long standing safe haven, something that's unlikely to change.


But the world won't stop turning, so energy will continue playing a central role in the economy. Natural gas is one to watch, with coal and uranium looking like attractive options to bet against the crowd.


Just make sure hard assets are part of your portfolio mix.


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About the Author

Peter Krauth is the Resource Specialist for Money Map Press and has contributed some of the most popular and highly regarded investing articles on Money Morning. Peter is headquartered in resource-rich Canada, but he travels around the world to dig up the very best profit opportunity, whether it's in gold, silver, oil, coal, or even potash.

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  1. BJ Reed | November 8, 2012

    Has there been an inventory of Fort Knox since the Reagan Administration?

  2. Garry W. | November 8, 2012

    I enjoy your articles and insight, but I think you have a "B" where a "T" should appear. Trillion, not billion!

  3. A. Peter Berge | November 8, 2012

    IF gold is used mainly for its beauty, and silver is industrial and a hard asset; why does silver follow GOLD. There is less silver left in the world, which should be looked at, as its mainly in landfills. Silver has been near exhaustion in the near future.. The evidence is out there.. Silver usage is at an alltime high, and will continue as so many electronics,solar,industrial demand and hoarding will , in my opinion-make silver a better investment. Silver somday will be the future, and gold will start to see itself chase silver. The same is true in oil. Demand and supply. I read Saudi Arabia is not truthful about its reserves under ground. It is nowhere an oil giant as had been.

  4. Cheryl | November 8, 2012

    I wanted a nuclear pick, not in YET. No ETF, anyone else?

  5. fallingman | November 8, 2012

    Your obvious choice is Cameco, but I would check out Paladin and Laramide also. Shaw for the construction angle. Areva for an integrated. For a flyer…Mega. There are others.

  6. Malcolm Rawlingson | November 8, 2012

    Cheryl,

    Cameco is your best pick followed Uranium Participation Corporation. Has the worlds lowest extraction costs largest ore concentrations and they are set to double Uranium Production once Cigar Lake comes on stream next year. That is the mine that flooded but it has ore concentrations of 23% (usual number hovers around 3-5%). Stock has been hammered lately and way down from pre Fukushima days but remember nuclear reactors cannot burn anything else but Uranium so once the plant is built the market is captive for 40 years. Also the Russia-US weapons destruction agreement ends in 2013 so there will be a Uranium shortage as mines produce only about 78% of demand. Demand is increasing supply is decreasing Uranium prices will go up. Expect $200/lb Uranium in 2014.

  7. Malcolm Rawlingson | November 8, 2012

    Peter,

    I agree but silver prices are manipulated otherwise the price would indeed be much higher than it is. As Warren Buffet says – Gold has not many useful applications except sitting on a shelf in a bank somewhere. Silver we cannot do without. It is in this computer I am writing on and in every single cell phone in the world. Demand will go up supply will fall price will go up. Gold will become unaffordable for most – especially jewellery – so silver will take its place.

    I also quite like Rhodium and Platinum as well as palladium but these are highy dependent o the auto catalytic converter market.

    Malcolm

  8. Mariano Capdevila | November 11, 2012

    Nuclear Power is being controlled by vested interest. Actually Uranium is used that, when enriched, produces Uranium 235 which is fissionable. The by product obtained is Plutonium which is used for nuclear arms. On 1938 there were 2 possibilities for Nuclear Fission: Uranium or Thorium and the Uranium was selected due to the Plutonium obtained as by product which is highly radioactive. Thorium produces Uranium 238 which is not necessary to be enriched for fission, and does not produce radioactive waste. Uranium is scare and controlled by the Oil Companies. Thorium is abundant, and has a low price. There are Nuclear Power Plants operating in different countries without any problem. Advanced studies are being conducted in India upon Thorium. Oil companies has no influence in India!!

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