We've been warning for some time now that cybersecurity would emerge as one of the top issues to track.
Indeed, in column we published on February 1st , we even predicted that the cyber-hacking of America - especially from China, Russia and Iran - would turn into one of the top stories of 2013.
And that's precisely how it's turning out.
Just last week, The Washington Post reported that a brand new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has concluded that the United States "is the target of a massive, sustained cyber-espionage campaign that is threatening the country's economic competitiveness."
Not surprisingly, given recent news events, the chief culprit has been identified as China.
NIE reports are classified documents that are prepared for U.S. policymakers and represent a consensus view of the U.S. intelligence community. The fact that an NIE was prepared on this particular topic underscores just how seriously the global cyber-hacking issue is being taken in Washington.
The Post story relied on unnamed sources that reporter Ellen Nakashima said were familiar with the contents of this particular report.
According to Nakashima, the NIE report "describes a wide range of sectors that have been the focus of hacking over the past five years, including energy, finance, information technology, aerospace and automotives ... the assessment does not quantify the financial impact of the espionage, but outside experts have estimated it in the tens of billions of dollars."
The NIE report is just the latest in a fusillade of headlines that have riddled the news since we last talked to you about this. For instance:
- Earlier this month, Iran broadcast clips of what it claimed was encrypted video footage extracted from the surveillance cameras of the state-of-the-art Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) it says it seized back in December 2011. The Iranian military claims its "cyber-corps" actually "spoofed" the unmanned airplane's avionics, and induced the ship to land 140 miles inside its own territory. (The U.S. military disputed the claim and said the UAV crashed because of a malfunction.) The aircraft - which aviation buffs dubbed "The Beast of Kandahar" because of its aggressive, futuristic look - represents front-line technology. Now Iran claims it is reverse-engineering the airplane and stealing its secrets.
- Last week, the ultra-secret U.S. Federal Reserve was forced to admit it had been the victim of a "hack attack" after the group Anonymous claimed responsibility via a Super Bowl Sunday Tweet. Anonymous claimed it had compromised 4,000 bankers' credentials on a private computer system the Fed uses to communicate with bankers in emergencies. It also grabbed secret forecasts the Fed uses in policymaking decisions.
The NIE report names three other countries - Russia, Israel and France - that it alleges have hacked America in pursuit of economic booty.
But the report makes clear that the cyber-spying efforts of this trio are dwarfed by the moves allegedly made by China.
(Beijing vehemently denies the allegation, and says it neither engages in, nor condones, illegal computer hacking.)
Why should we - as individual investors - care about this? I mean, isn't this just something that the folks down at the Pentagon need to sort out?
The fact is, you should care a great deal about this, and not just for military or patriotic reasons.
The cyber-hacking of America affects each and every one of us.
Nakashima, the reporter for The Post, actually summarized it quite eloquently when she wrote that "cyber-espionage ... once viewed as a concern mainly by U.S. intelligence and the military, is increasingly seen as a direct threat to the nation's economic interests."
In other words, the innovations, trade secrets and competitive advantages we lose through an unchecked reign of cyber-espionage will grind away at Corporate America's market share and profits - which, in turn, will savage U.S. stock prices.
Initially, we'll all feel the pinch when we see how that share-price erosion has savaged our retirement holdings - and even our life savings.
And we all know what happens when Corporate America sees its profits, market share and stock prices hit the skids - it fires people ... en masse.
(As a former journalist, I don't go for all those euphemisms companies try to employ to divert attention from the human toll that results from mass job cuts. These aren't "layoffs," because the companies have no intention of "calling the workers back," like in the old days. Nor will I use the terms "downsizing," "reduction-in-force" (RIFs), or "right-sizing." When these folks get cut, they're fired - and the jobs won't come back.)
Washington is responding. But you have to wonder just how effective those responses will be.
The options open to the Obama administration include formal protests, the expulsion of diplomatic personnel, the imposition of travel and visa restrictions, and complaints to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Not exactly awe-inspiring stuff.
In late January, Pentagon officials said they were working on a big expansion of their cybersecurity forces. The plan there is twofold: First, counter the incursions that could cripple our infrastructure, economy and national security; and, second, take the battle back to America's cyber-enemies.
That strategy would require a 444% increase in the U.S. Department of Defense's Cyber Command - boosting its ranks from 900 now to an estimated 4,900 when the expansion is completed, The Washington Post reported back then.
But that plan, too, is somewhat suspect.
Although defense officials said the Pentagon is "constantly looking to recruit, train and retain world class cyber-personnel," they also conceded that finding, training and keeping such a big group of hyper-qualified specialists would be a huge challenge - if not an outright impossibility.
Nevertheless, "the threat is real and we need to react to it," William J. Lynn III, a former deputy defense secretary who worked on the Pentagon's cybersecurity strategy, told The New York Times.
Let's hope we can.
This is another one of those seminal issues - like the ongoing affair in the South China Sea - that we'll keep watching for you.
That way you'll stay ahead of the curve ...
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Don't be suprised ! After Israel and US infiltrated Iranian computers with the Stuxnet virus, retaliation could be expected. There's no reason why Iranians, Chinese or anyone else should be unable to do what the US is able to do. As it happens, about 33 years ago, I happened to see an Iranian programmer in Geneva, putting up one of the first real-time forex chart programs. Useless to say, that it was not easy but the guy had a patience and resilience in front of all the difficulties he could face, and that rellay puzzled dme. We occidentals will never fully understand the oriental mindset, i's simply far too different from ours.
Iranian – Oriental… I think that explains the lack of comprehension.
First engineering principle: If you can't turn it off, don't turn it on.
The US are such hypocrites! Like this country hasn't cyber-hacked another!
Give it up America, the hypocrisy is sickening.
Greetings folks:
Thanks for the comments. Because you're clearly interested in the topic, I just wanted to pass along a story that broke today that says that Mandiant Corp., a U.S.-based computer-security firm, has a new report that says that a surging number of cyberattacks against the United States are linked to China's People's Liberation Army. According to the study, 141 U.S. companies have had their data breached or stolen since 2006.
The New York Times apparently got an advance peek at the report, and today said that "on the outskirts of Shanghai, in a run-down neighborhood dominated by a 12-story white office tower, sits a People’s Liberation Army base for China’s growing corps of cyberwarriors. A growing body of digital forensic evidence — confirmed by American intelligence officials who say they have tapped into the activity of the army unit for years — leaves little doubt that an overwhelming percentage of the attacks on American corporations, organizations and government agencies originate in and around the white tower."
Beijing disputes the allegations and says the U.S. is guilty of its own digital transgressions, although it did not provide specifics.
DD makes an interesting point. If there's a differentiator, however, it may be that the U.S. isn't using those initiatives to plunder the technical know-how and trade secrets of private corporations, and that its efforts are being used to protect this country from the escalating threats of terrorism and potential first strikes by the world's emerging nuclear powers. On that last point, the recent North Korea nuclear test and missile launches (separate tests, mind you) are a reminder of just how real this is.
And let's not forget the escalating affair in the East and South China Sea — which is being underreported by the U.S. media, and which a stunning percentage of Americans know little or nothing about. It will only take a small spark to create the kind of "incident" that would quickly grow out of control. The administration knows this, which is why former Sec of State Hillary Clinton spent so much time in Asia in the last year.
I take no position on any of this. But I do care about you all … our readers. I bring these things to your attention because to be forewarned is to be forearmed. And our readership is a singularly well-informed group. Once you are forewarned, you can structure your personal strategies accordingly.
As always, your responses — pro or con — are welcomed.
You're a very good group….
Respectfully yours;
William (Bill) Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning and Private Briefing
For more many years, the NSA (National Security Agency) has been engaged in the sort of practices that Bill Patalon decries – and not only to protect National Security. It is well known that the NSA listened in on Kofi Anan's communications when he was Secretary General of the UN (see e.g. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spying_on_the_United_Nations). Mr. Anan is not a terrorist. Years ago, when I was working with Aerospatiale (now Airbus), engineers were well aware of the fact that the NSA was engaged in a large scale effort to obtain information on ongoing research and development projects (non-military as well as military). So please forgive the French if they attempt to do a little bit of snooping themselves. Currently, the NSA is building a massive data center to spy on just about anybody (see e.g. itworld.com/security/259480/big-brother-nsa-gets-bigger-ear). So yes, there is a smack of hypocrisy in Mr. Patalon's article.
China? What? America is sticking it to itself! The United States is its own worst enemy.
Silly silly foolish Americans and their preoccupation with entertainment and body image. Perpetual adolescents that live solely for entertainment, titillating sensationalist gossip, and spying on their neighbors.
Can't invent anything, can't learn math and science, can't speak foreign languages, and astonishingly arrogant with the rest of the world.
America is creating its own downfall. Start with the private collections of police records and booking photographs. Millions of records; about 5% of the population and growing. Do Americans really believe this is good?! Does American government and law enforcement and even the State Department really think this is benign? Amazing!
Al-Qaeda promised an electronic jihad. Well, here it comes.
What goes around comes back! You go into other countries or even 'accidentally' violate their
air space like the the jet confiscated, stripped of its technology, then returned to the U.S. by
China several years ago, have one of your drones downed in Iran (for their future use!), have
foreign scientists hustle 'secret technology' to their folks back home , and as Michio Kaku said
in a personal interview that can be seen on You-Tube, refuse to train your own in college for
PhD candidacy and have over seventy percent of scientists coming from foreign countries. By
that insane practice alone as Kaku stated you risk a collapse of the american economy in less
than two years if only fifty percent of those foreign PhD's go back to their own country as some
are beginning to do!
Yet you complain about foreigners hacking your system. How about the hacking of tax payer's
earnings to support a world government police force provided by the american military, not to
mention the murder of hundreds of thousands of innocent and defenseless civilians as well as
our own young servicemen often returning home to scant aid and little survival support?
Erick Tippett
Retired Musician/Teacher
Chicago, Illinois
Hmmmm…. Maybe Americans should go back to putting critical information on Peices of paper locked in secure places like they did when there was minimal to no technolgy. Pretty hard to hack the information on a peice of paper under my bed, Any security the americans come up with to counter these attacks will only bring greater joy to the chinese enthusiasts for making it their sole mission to interupt and breach any tighter security mesures imposed. Give up the security the chinese are far ahead in technology then the US, and a message to any Country If you want information secure make sure that information is on hard copies in fire proof safes, or possible on hard drives with no wireless connectors or No possible way of connecting to the internet or connecting to a divice which has internet enabled. But like I said dont store critical information on computers, Ipads, Ipods, (eg. anything technical/electronic) Instead have hard copies just like we did in the 60`s and earlier and there will obviously be no worries. For example any document on my computer can easily be viewed, like I said regardless of your latest anti virus and other fancier stuff the US has, let the truth be known any companies to STORE information on Technological devices with internet capabilities, might as well just email it to china, saves them a couple minutes worth of work…. Use your head !!!
Check out the company, Vir2us in Petaluma, Ca. They have virus/spyware immunity technology and have met with top cyber security officials in several US govt. agencies. I don't know why their technology isn't in every computer in govt., business and PCs