Tags: Election

Donald Trump Will Win the Election, According to UK Bookies

By , Money Morning •

DonaTrump will win the election According to UK bookies' latest wagers, Donald Trump will win the election.

And such declarations from bookmakers across the pond are not to be taken lightly. After all, there are millions of euros (and dollars) at stake.

But before we get into Great Britain's current odds of a Trump win, here's some context about how bookies operate in the United Kingdom...

How UK Betting Shops Work

The UK is absolutely awash with "betting shops" - businesses solely devoted to taking bets on various events.

Most often, these bookie stores take wagers on Premiere League soccer matches with already agreed-upon odds set forth by the shops themselves.

Must Read: How to Make a Killing... When Everyone Else Is Panicking

But sometimes these firms allow gamblers to branch out and speculate (still with agreed-upon odds) on other notable affairs, raking in bets months before a specific event.

Which is precisely what UK bookies have been doing ahead of the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

And, as of right now, the collective odds in betting shops across the UK favor the GOP presidential candidate, Donald Trump... by a lot...

Donald Trump Will Win and UK Bookies Will Lose

As of Wednesday -- six days ahead of the presidential election -- Donald Trump has outshone rival Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in Britain's book shops in both the number and the volume of wagers placed, according to figures released by Ireland's largest bookmaker, Paddy Power Betfair.

Just shy of €100,000 ($111,000) in bets have come in since Oct. 28 -- and check out this massive percentage favoring Donald Trump:

Ninety-one percent.

[mmpazkzone name="in-story" network="9794" site="307044" id="137008" type="4"]

Last Friday (Oct. 28) was a pertinent catalyst in the UK's wager market because that's the day FBI Director James Comey announced the discovery of new e-mails he deemed "pertinent" to a previously closed probe of Clinton's private server use as secretary of state.

You see, before Comey's announcement, Trump's odds in the UK were vastly different, signaling an almost definitive Clinton win.

Have a look:

  • Pre-Comey announcement, Trump had about a 22% chance of winning the White House.
  • Clinton, on the other hand, had 1/5 odds in the UK, meaning her chance at winning the presidency was favored at about 82%.

Obviously, those tables have turned.

Don't Miss: The Ultimate Must-Have Investment

In fact, bookmaking firm Bovada, which operates offshore of the UK and takes international wagers online, claimed yesterday that since Comey's announcement, wagers on Trump are outnumbering those on Clinton by 5-1 (83%) internationally.

This is significant because some of Bovada's bettors do actually represent a cross-section of potential American voters since gamblers worldwide are allowed to wager through their platform.

And it's because of these international customers with an actual stake in the election (Americans) that "bookies often have an unerring ability to predict the outcomes of political events to a more accurate degree than just polls," reported Casino.org yesterday.

However, bookies have made some major mistakes in the past that cost gamblers hundreds of thousands of euros and pounds ...

Look no further than the June 23 Brexit referendum for an example of when the bookies got it wrong...

The Brexit Bruised the UK Betting Industry's Reputation

The UK betting house industry saw £30 million - $37 million - wagered on the results of the UK's vote regarding whether or not it should "Remain" in or "Leave" the European Union.

UK bookies deemed the "Remain [in the European Union]" camp the odds-on favorite since Feb. 20 of this year, when former Prime Minister David Cameron announced the official June 23 vote date. UK bet shops collectively set the odds in favor at around 70%, reported The Washington Journal on Feb. 24.

But by June 6, those odds had completely swapped.

UK bookies were receiving individual bets in favor of "Leave" at 71% that day, following a national opinion poll that gave the Leave campaign the lead.

Regardless of the results of this survey, the betting shops held the odds of "Remain" at a whopping 90%.

So on June 23, when "Leave" officially won the vote, bettors lost a lot of money...

To be precise, an estimated £25 million in bets were lost on the "Remain" camp.

Meanwhile, just £5 million had been initially wagered on a "Leave" vote prevailing. Depending on what dates various bettors had placed their wagers on the Brexit (the earlier on, the richer, thanks to high/low odds), all of the gamblers in this latter camp truly beat the odds.

Up Next

Could the pro-Trump shift in UK betting trends be foreshadowing a major surprise in the same way they did with Brexit?

Money Morning wagered way back in June that the Brexit victory signaled a Trump presidency...

Follow Money Morning on Twitter @moneymorning and on Facebook.

Related Articles: