There's a 94% Chance This Alarming U.S. Trend Wasted Your Vote for Congress

Republicans and Democrats have engineered a system that almost certainly wasted your vote for Congress in the November election.
Take Ohio's 15th District.

In this district's 2008 election for the House of Representatives, Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy defeated Republican Steve Stivers by a margin of just 0.76%.

Then the 15th District was reconfigured in 2011.

The following year, Stivers defeated Democratic challenger Pat Lang by a margin of 23.12%.

Stivers won re-election in 2016 by a whopping margin of 32.4%.

Ohio's once-competitive 15th District is now a safe Republican seat, wasting the votes of more than 300,000 people.

In 2011, most of the area's Democrats were bunched into the neighboring 3rd District, which is equally uncompetitive. Democrat Joyce Beatty won by a margin of 36.6%, wasting another 300,000-plus votes.

Sadly, this isn't a rare event. It's an example of the disturbing trend in U.S. voting that has eliminated competition in 94% of the country's congressional districts.

And it's why political gridlock in Washington is going to get even worse...

How Voters Lost Congress to the "Safe Seats" Movement

Only about 25 of the 435 congressional districts are competitive now - less than 6%.

In other words, most congressional districts have enough of a majority for one party that it's a "safe" win in almost every election.

It wasn't always this way.

As recently as 1992, more than 100 congressional districts were competitive, nearly 24%.

But today it's not unusual for a state to have no competitive districts.

wastes your vote

Ohio, a critical swing state in presidential elections, had not one close congressional race in 2016. Out of Ohio's 16 districts, the closest margin of victory was 19 percentage points. And almost all - 14 - were landslides of 30 percentage points or more.

Of the nine races in Tennessee, the closest margin was 25%. Six of those races were decided by margins of more than 40 percentage points. In Missouri's eight races, the closest margin was 19.9%. Six of those had winning margins of at least 39 percentage points.

When election victories are that lopsided, millions of votes are wasted.

But this is not the only problem with so many uncompetitive districts...

This Is Why Congress Is Ruined

The large number of safe seats also has made it easier for extremists in both parties to get elected. More moderate candidates often get knocked out in the primaries. When a seat isn't competitive, it's much easier for a hardline conservative or liberal to then win it in the general election.

More extremists in Washington is why the partisan divide has grown into a chasm, and why the political fights have grown increasingly bitter.

It's also why America is stuck with a do-nothing Congress.

The just-ended 114th Congress managed to pass 328 laws, a bit higher than the 296 enacted by the 113th Congress. But as recently as the 106th Congress (January 1999-December 2000), 604 laws were passed.

do-nothing congressWhile the Republicans have gained the most benefit from safe seats, they've also had to cope with an unintended consequence - the rise of the Freedom Caucus.

The Freedom Caucus consists of about 30 of the most conservative members of the GOP. It tangles with the Republican establishment almost as much as the Democrats do. And it has teeth.

The Freedom Caucus almost single-handedly forced the resignation of House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) in October 2015.

The worst part is, these safe districts haven't arisen by accident. They've been created deliberately by both the Republicans and Democrats to make winning elections easier.

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Plus, campaign money that would have gone to uncompetitive districts can be re-channeled to swing districts.

This is how they did it...

This Old Tactic Is How Your Vote Gets Wasted

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Each state legislature is charged with redrawing its district map every 10 years following the U.S. census. The party that controls the state legislature gets to redraw the boundaries.

Sometimes they draw wildly convoluted district boundaries that minimize the strength of the opposing party - and ensure the controlling party wins the most districts possible. It's an old political tactic called gerrymandering.

Gerrymandering has a long history in U.S. politics - the first example dates to Massachusetts in 1812. (The term is a combination of the then-Massachusetts Gov. Elbridge Gerry and the word "salamander," which the district in question resembled.)

But in the past couple of decades, both parties have taken a stronger interest in gerrymandering to protect seats in states they controlled. And in 2010, the Republicans took it to a new level.

gerrymandering
The first gerrymandered district was in Massachusetts in 1812.

Realizing the true power of gerrymander depends on controlling as many state legislatures as possible, the GOP created a program to do just that. Project REDMAP (Redistricting Majority Project) poured about $18 million into hundreds of traditionally quiet state legislative races.

REDMAP was a stunning success, resulting in GOP gains of more than 700 seats in state legislatures in the 2010 midterm election. Most importantly, those victories turned 20 state legislatures from Democratic control to Republican control.

When it came time to redraw the congressional district maps in 2011, the GOP executed the second phase of the plan. With sophisticated computer software, the Republicans were able to engineer safe districts Elbridge Gerry could only dream of.

The new, Republican-friendly districts helped the GOP retain its majority in the House in the 2012 elections even though as a group the Democratic candidates won 1.2% more votes (1.4 million) nationwide.

In the 2014 midterms, absent President Barack Obama's coattails, the Republicans' House majority widened from 33 seats to 59 seats. This past November, as in 2012, the gerrymandered districts ensured minimal GOP losses (six seats).

Because the next round of redistricting won't take place until 2021, the GOP's dominance - and the power of the extremist Freedom Caucus - will continue at least through the next two election cycles.

Vexing as it is, gerrymandering doesn't need to be a permanent blight on the U.S. electoral system. Here's what could be done...

How to Fix Gerrymandering

The best way to put a stop to gerrymandering is to change federal law, which does not specifically forbid it (although the Voting Rights Act of 1965 outlawed using redistricting to dilute minority voting groups).

Individual states could also change laws to restrict gerrymandering, but that is a piecemeal solution.

Because both parties have enjoyed the benefits of safe districts when they're in power, the will to outlaw gerrymandering has been lacking.

Both have incentives. The Democrats have experienced how bad it can be on the losing end of gerrymandering. The Republican leadership has struggled to control the demon child of gerrymandering, the Freedom Caucus.

But both parties apparently would rather fight for the spoils than fix the system. REDMAP 2020 is already under way, with a spending goal of $125 million. The Democrats have formed Advantage 2020 and hope to raise $70 million. Sigh.

The best hope to end gerrymandering ultimately lies with voters tired of having their votes wasted. Some have made their voices heard though lawsuits.

In Wisconsin, 12 voters took their state to court over the 2012 gerrymandering. They won the first round in a U.S. District Court, although the Wisconsin attorney general has planned an appeal.

In December, the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments in two gerrymandering cases, for North Carolina and Virginia, with a ruling expected in June.

In Maryland (where the Democrats are the guilty party), a lawsuit alleges that voters' rights were violated when redrawn lines turned their district from red to blue in 2012.

It's not hopeless. A Supreme Court decision last July upheld a Florida lawsuit, forcing two gerrymandered districts to be redrawn in time for the 2016 election.

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About the Author

David Zeiler, Associate Editor for Money Morning at Money Map Press, has been a journalist for more than 35 years, including 18 spent at The Baltimore Sun. He has worked as a writer, editor, and page designer at different times in his career. He's interviewed a number of well-known personalities - ranging from punk rock icon Joey Ramone to Apple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak.

Over the course of his journalistic career, Dave has covered many diverse subjects. Since arriving at Money Morning in 2011, he has focused primarily on technology. He's an expert on both Apple and cryptocurrencies. He started writing about Apple for The Sun in the mid-1990s, and had an Apple blog on The Sun's web site from 2007-2009. Dave's been writing about Bitcoin since 2011 - long before most people had even heard of it. He even mined it for a short time.

Dave has a BA in English and Mass Communications from Loyola University Maryland.

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