Debt
Why the Eurozone Debt Crisis Never Really Went Away
How many times have we been told the Eurozone debt crisis is resolved, only to have it turn up again like a bad penny?
Last year's string of good news/ bad news on the Eurozone debt crisis had the markets going up and down like a yo-yo until the routine grew so tiresome that most people stopped paying attention.
But while the crisis faded into the background, it never really went way.
Remedies that were sold as solutions haven't solved a thing.
The celebrated bailouts of countries like Portugal, Ireland, and especially Greece have served mainly to postpone real solutions that would be far more painful.
"The Eurozone politicians in their infinite wisdom have concluded that it is easier to prolong the agony than to take their medicine," said Money Morning Chief Investment strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.
In fact, the Eurozone debt crisis is getting worse.
Collective debt among the 17 member nations is on the rise, having increased from 85.3% of GDP (gross domestic product) in 2010 to 87.2% last year. That's the highest level in the history of the Eurozone.
Unemployment in the Eurozone rose in March to 10.9%, up from 10.8% in February and 9.9% a year ago. Manufacturing also declined last month, as new orders fell for the 11th month in a row.
And the austerity imposed on the troubled PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) to bring their budget deficits and debts under control have actually made the situation worse.
"It's done no good at all," Fitz-Gerald said of the Eurozone's efforts to deal with the debt crisis. "It's an absolute travesty."
The steep and sudden cuts in spending are pushing most of Europe back into a recession, which will eventually be felt here at home.
Subprime Student Slaves: The Lowlife Trap of Higher Education
"And the strong to seem to get more
While the weak ones slave
Empty pockets don't ever make the grade
Mama may have, and Papa may have
But God bless the child that's got his own
That's got his own."
We can thank the late, great Billie Holiday for those lyrics. And we can thank our higher education system for giving "the child that don't his own"a chance to get some.
Some debt, that is.
Students, many of them adults looking to gain new skills, are being systematically ripped off and enslaved by schools and lenders, blinding them with hope about what a higher education can do for them while bilking them for billions in the process.
It's a dirty game, and a big one at that. You probably know, because you probably owe.
But wait.
First, let me offer some insights on the market before I get to my indictments…
Why the Doom and Gloom?
So far, so good…as far as earnings season, that is. Three quarters of companies reporting, so far, have beaten Street expectations. And 81% have offered up better than expected revenue forecasts for the future.
So… why all the doom and gloom?
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The Student Loan Bubble is the Next Subprime
Don't look now but there's another giant bubble out there. It's so big it rivals subprime.
I'm talking about the student loan bubble.
Recently, the outstanding volume of student loans passed $1 trillion. What's more bothersome is that the average individual amount owed by new college graduates has passed $25,000.
With college costs zooming upwards faster than inflation, this is rapidly becoming another subprime mortgage-like sinkhole.
Just like subprime, the problem is that people of modest means are being suckered by high-pressure salesmen into taking on too much debt.
The difference is that since student loans are government guaranteed and can't be released in bankruptcy, the burdens will be paid by the unfortunate ex-students and the U.S. taxpayer.
The standard justification for soaring higher education costs is a simple one.
The United States needs to maintain an educational lead in order for its wage levels to remain above those of its competitors.
I'm talking largely about emerging markets, which have been helped enormously by modern communications, making global sourcing much easier than it was.
There are two problems with this view.
2012 Financial Crisis: Wall Street's Latest Scheme Uses Your Bank Account to Create the Next Crash
In 2008, reckless credit default swaps nearly obliterated the global economy. Now comes the next crisis – rehypothecated assets.
It's a complicated, fancy term in the global banking complex. Yet it's one you need to know.
And if you understand it, you will get the scope of the risks we currently face – and it's way bigger than just Greece.
So follow with me on this one. I guarantee that you'll be outraged and amazed – and better educated. You'll also be in a better position to protect your assets at the end of this article, where I'll give you three important action steps to take. So follow along…
Latest Greek Debt Crisis Deal Solves Nothing
Although a pending deal will allow Greece to get its next batch of bailout money, the Greek debt crisis is as much of a time bomb now as it ever was.
Private bondholders tentatively agreed yesterday (Thursday) to take a 70% "haircut," or a reduction in the value of the Greek debt they hold, in exchange for more Greek austerity measures.
If the Greek parliament approves the measures, which include lowering the minimum wage by 22%, cutting 150,000 public sector jobs and further reductions in pensions, Greece will get the $130 billion in bailout money it must have to avoid default on March 20.
Trouble is, none of that solves the real problem, which is Greece's shrinking ability to pay back future debt.
"Greece will be able to make the payment and immediate default will be avoided," Jurgen Odenius, chief economist for Prudential Fixed Income, told USA Today. "But the situation still won't be sustainable."
Previous austerity measures designed to lower budget deficits have hammered the Greek economy. Unemployment is 20.9%. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) has declined for five straight years and has been negative for the past three. Last year the Greek economy contracted 5.7%. Economists expect Greek GDP to shrink another 5% or so this year.
As the Greek economy gets smaller, balancing the budget gets harder. Greece almost certainly will need to keep borrowing money for years to come.
And because Greece's credit is shot, it will have a tough time selling bonds at rates low enough to avoid sinking deeper into the debt hole.
Cash for Keys: Avoid Foreclosure, Pay the Bank Less Than What You Owe… and Get $30,000
Tags: bank loans, cash for keys, forclosure program, Foreclosures, Housing Market, mortgage loans, realestate, second-lien, Short Sales
The Hunt for Higher Yield: Investors Pour into Emerging Market Debt
The never-ending hunt for higher yield is leading investors to bet record amounts on emerging market debt.
In just the first two weeks of 2012, governments of undeveloped economies from Asia to Africa sold more than $30.6 billion in dollar-denominated bonds according to Bloomberg News.
That's up from roughly $19.9 billion in the same period last year and the most since 1999, when Bloomberg began collecting data.
Typically, investors shun emerging market bonds during times of uncertainty in favor of "safer" assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
But that has started to change.
The Big Move Into Emerging Market Debt
In fact, investor demand is overwhelming supplies as orders have outstripped the amount of bonds being sold.
During a recent auction, the Philippines received $12.5 billion of orders for $1.5 billion of 25-year bonds, pushing the yield down to a record-low 5%. Indonesia sold 30-year bonds at a record-low yield of 5.375% and Colombia sold $1.5 billion of 29-year bonds at 4.964%.
Analysts say the debt crisis in Europe, along with record low yields on U.S Treasuries, has investors on the hunt.
They are now buying the debt of undeveloped nations like Indonesia, Mexico and Brazil, even though credit-rating firms rank them as more risky than their European counterparts
"What we're seeing is a re-evaluation of sovereign-credit risk, increasingly being driven more by fundamentals than by classifications," Eric Stein, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance Corp. (NYSE: EV) told The Wall Street Journal.
According to the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index, investment-grade sovereign emerging-market bonds are yielding an average of 4.7%.
By contrast, Italian 30-year debt yields 7%, while Spanish 30-year debt yields 6.1%.
One reason emerging market bonds are attracting interest is…
Why You Should Ignore the Coming Debt Ceiling Debate
Under the guise of yet another debt ceiling debate, Republicans and Democrats will spend much of the week demonizing each other on the Washington stage.
But don't be fooled. This so-called debate will be nothing more than a planned-in-advance sideshow to supply each side with 2012 election campaign fodder.
The deal put in place on Aug. 2 essentially guaranteed that the limit on the U.S. national debt would be raised to $16.4 trillion in January. That means any sound and fury that emanates from Washington this week over raising the debt limit will signify nothing.
"It's pro-forma. They already made a deal to raise the debt ceiling last time around," said Shah Gilani, Money Morning Capital Waves Strategist and author of the Wall Street Insights & Indictments newsletter. "The President has to ask for the increase — which makes it look like he caused it — and the Republicans get to display anger that "here we are again.' But it's a game they agreed to earlier."
The deal in August intentionally split the debt ceiling increase into three separate requests to set up these faux debates for public consumption.
U.S. President Barack Obama did his part on Thursday by making a formal request for the $1.2 trillion increase in the debt limit.
That was the cue for Republicans in the House of Representatives to draft a "resolution of disapproval" which they will debate and vote on this week. And given that the GOP has a majority in the House, the resolution is guaranteed to pass.
In this play's next scene, the Democratic-controlled Senate rejects the resolution, which allows President Obama's requested debt ceiling increase to take effect by default – just as all sides envisioned back in August.
And even if a few rebellious Democratic Senators vote with their Republican colleagues, President Obama can veto the resolution. With the odds of Congress overriding a veto near zero, the debt ceiling increase is pretty much a lock.
But the show must go on.
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Paul Krugman is Dead Wrong: Debt Matters
Paul Krugman, the Princeton University economics professor, Nobel Prize winner, and regular New York Times op-ed contributor says, "Debt matters, but not that much."
Not only is he off the reservation on this one, but he's completely fallen off his high horse.
In the real world, debt actually matters a lot.
In a Houston Chronicle opinion piece last week, Krugman, riding his horse – whose name might as well be Liberal Conscience – trampled conservatives under the guise of an economics lesson that derided "deficit-worriers" for wrongly seeing "America as being like a family that took out too large a mortgage, and will have a hard time making the monthly payments."
According to Krugman, that's a bad analogy and "the way our politicians think about debt is all wrong, and exaggerates the problem's size."
Decide for yourself. Either debt matters a lot, or not that much…
The World According to Paul Krugman
Professor Krugman calls all the conversation in Washington about debt and deficits a "misplaced focus" and says all of the economic experts "on whom much of Congress relies have been repeatedly wrong about the short-run effects of budget deficits."
He derides the fears that deficits will cause interest rates to soar by pointing out that they haven't moved.
What he doesn't say is that they haven't moved because they're not free to move.
The fact is that the U.S. Federal Reserve has corralled the free market in interest rates by knocking short-term rates to almost zero through successive open market operations and extraordinary quantitative easing measures.
Mr. Krugman mocks those waiting for rates to rise and notes that while they wait "rates have dropped to historical lows."
Maybe what he doesn't realize is that the Fed's actions themselves have been nothing short of historical.
The crux of Mr. Krugman's supposition that debt doesn't matter much is based on his bashing of the popular analogy comparing America's debt problems to those of a mortgaged homeowner.
All of which Krugman claims is "a really bad analogy in at least two ways."
He says, "First, families have to pay back their debt. Governments don't – all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base."
"Second," he says, "an over-borrowed family owes the money to someone else; U.S. debt is, to a large extent, money we owe ourselves."
He goes on to say that the debt from World War II was never repaid and didn't make postwar America poorer.
In fact, the Professor points out, "the debt didn't prevent the postwar generation from experiencing the biggest rise in incomes and living standards in our nation's history."
Krugman is Flat Out Wrong
First off, the homeowner analogy is excellent–not irrelevant.
Mr. Krugman is wrong when he says that homeowners have to pay back their debt. The truth is they don't have to.
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