By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Map Report - • Print | Email
The odds are good that China won't dump its holdings of U.S. Treasuries anytime soon. But by substantially reducing its purchases of U.S. debt – or halting them completely in the form of a buyers' strike – the Red Dragon could absolutely shatter the myth that it is the U.S. Federal Reserve that controls U.S. interest rates.
And that could also crater the bond market in the process.
To find out how you could protect yourself if foreign creditors ditch the dollar read on…
By Kerri Shannon, Associate Editor, Money Morning - • Print | Email
The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw its biggest drop in seven months in February, fueling the U.S. Federal Reserve's argument that interest rates can remain low "for an extended period" without yet facing dangerous inflationary pressures.
Wholesale prices were down a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February, the Labor Department reported today (Wednesday), a day after the Fed's one-day policy meeting where it reiterated the need to encourage economic growth through low interest rates.
The central bank's position to keep the federal funds rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25% since December 2008 has sparked inflation concerns among many investors. However, proof of tame inflation buys the Fed more time in deciding when to continue with its "exit strategy" and pull the trigger on a rate hike. The Fed has remained firm on its stance that there is no evidence of rising inflation due to low interest rates.
For a U.S. president, nominating Fed governors is a little like nominating Supreme Court justices: Since they serve a 14-year term, you have the chance to shape the U.S. Federal Reserve for a decade after your administration ends. What's more – even though Fed governors are subject to confirmation by the U.S. Senate – you're far less likely to have trouble getting them through than you do with the Supremes.
That's why U.S. President Barack Obama's current chance to nominate three out of the seven Fed governors is legitimate front-page news – and isn't merely the "inside monetary baseball" trivia that occupies much of the daily business section. Probably two of those three governors still will be serving in 2020, long after President Obama has published his memoirs.
The bottom line: One of President Obama's legacies will be a "soft money" Fed.
To discover the dangers of a "soft money" Fed, read on...
The U.S. Federal Reserve today (Tuesday) kept its benchmark interest rate at a record low level Tuesday and made no changes to the key "extended period" policy pledge.
In its description of the economy, the Fed noted that "household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit." Also, the housing market has yet to turn a significant corner and the commercial real estate market remains in dire straits.
"Investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls," the Fed statement said.
By Don Miller, Contributing Writer, Money Morning - • Print | Email
The Term Asset Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) program has succeeded in reviving the consumer loan-backed market and may even return a profit for the Federal Reserve, according to William Dudley, one of the main architects of the facility.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Dudley, the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that the TALF program has reignited the market for securities backed by loans on vehicles and credit-card debt.
TALF was launched by the Fed to entice buyers to buy new bonds backed by auto and student loans. At the time, investors were reluctant to purchase securities backed by shaky collateral, fearing they would lose their entire investment.
By Shah Gilani, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning • @ShahGilani_TW - • Print | Email
U.S. senators Christopher Dodd, D-CT, and Bob Corker, R-TN, have fashioned a compromise on stalled banking regulation that straddles divisions over establishing a financial consumer protection agency and addresses unwinding too-big-to-fail firms.
The deal deftly divides lawmakers on both sides of the aisle in the Senate, as well as in the House of Representatives, which passed its plan for financial reform in December.
By engineering gridlock in the nation's capitol, lawmakers seem determined to stall any meaningful overhaul of financial-markets regulation. But rather than counting on backsliding into the status quo to grease the wheels of economic recovery, the overhang of unresolved and ineffectual legislation threatens long-term investor confidence and desperately needed public protections.
To read more about the deal's shortcomings, please continue below...
By Kerri Shannon, Associate Editor, Money Morning - • Print | Email
The Senate's journey to agreement on a financial reform bill could lead to consumer protection responsibilities remaining in the hands of the Federal Reserve.
After much back-and-forth among senators, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd (D-CT) is proposing a consumer protection unit that will be housed in the Fed. Sen. Bob Corker, R-TN, offered the idea as an alternative to Dodd's earlier proposal of creating a consumer protection division in the Treasury Department.
Dodd's revision aims to appeal more to Republicans than earlier proposals, in hopes the Senate can move forward with U.S. financial regulation overhaul. The proposal is expected to scale back the measures approved by the House of Representatives in December 2009.
By Kerri Shannon, Associate Editor, Money Morning - • Print | Email
Any speculation that U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had his finger on the "exit strategy" trigger has been silenced.
Bernanke yesterday (Wednesday) faced the House Financial Services Committee to instill public confidence in the Fed's ability to exercise a smooth exit strategy and quell continued fears of a tightening monetary policy.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) "continues to anticipate that economic conditions — including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations — are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the Federal Funds rate for an extended period," he said.
Looking for an exact date when U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow central bank policymakers will raise interest rates?
Experts refer to this eventuality as Bernanke's "exit strategy" – a financial euphemism for the interest-rate increases that are certain to come … at some point.
That's just it – those experts can't tell you when that exit strategy will begin. I can't tell you that, either (Sorry, loaned my crystal ball to Miss Cleo for her new infomercial).
But what I can give you that the pundits can't is a "Road Map to Higher Interest Rates," which spells out the specific events that should precede the most-heavily anticipated U.S. central bank interest-rate increase in history. Follow it and you should be perfectly positioned to profit when the time comes.
(Remember, a few months ago, I introduced Senior Secured Floating Interest Rate Bonds, or SSFRs, an investment that you'll want to own when interest rates rise.)
So, without further ado…
The so-called "exit strategy" has yet to enter the picture.
U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers yesterday (Wednesday) announced that the benchmark Federal Funds rate would remain in its record-low range of 0.00% to 0.25% for an "extended period." And policymakers also said that the nation's central bank would continue with its plan to wind down its purchases of agency debt and mortgage-backed securities.
The term "exit strategy" is a financial euphemism for boosting interest rates. By keeping short-term interest rates at what many experts say are artificially low levels, the Fed is betting that inflation will remain subdued in the short and medium-term and that the beleaguered U.S. housing market will be able to stage its recovery without crutches.
