Results for U.S. Economy
Producer Price Index Drop Supports Fed’s Position on Keeping Low Interest Rates
The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw its biggest drop in seven months in February, fueling the U.S. Federal Reserve’s argument that interest rates can remain low "for an extended period" without yet facing dangerous inflationary pressures.
Wholesale prices were down a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February, the Labor Department reported today (Wednesday), a day after the Fed’s one-day policy meeting where it reiterated the need to encourage economic growth through low interest rates.
The central bank’s position to keep the federal funds rate at a record low range of zero to 0.25% since December 2008 has sparked inflation concerns among many investors. However, proof of tame inflation buys the Fed more time in deciding when to continue with its "exit strategy" and pull the trigger on a rate hike. The Fed has remained firm on its stance that there is no evidence of rising inflation due to low interest rates.
Will Obama’s “Soft Money” Fed Lead to Hard Times for the U.S. Economy?
For a U.S. president, nominating Fed governors is a little like nominating Supreme Court justices: Since they serve a 14-year term, you have the chance to shape the U.S. Federal Reserve for a decade after your administration ends. What’s more – even though Fed governors are subject to confirmation by the U.S. Senate – you’re far less likely to have trouble getting them through than you do with the Supremes.
That’s why U.S. President Barack Obama’s current chance to nominate three out of the seven Fed governors is legitimate front-page news – and isn’t merely the "inside monetary baseball" trivia that occupies much of the daily business section. Probably two of those three governors still will be serving in 2020, long after President Obama has published his memoirs.
The bottom line: One of President Obama’s legacies will be a "soft money" Fed.
Fed Plan to End Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program Brings Market Anxiety
Anxiety surrounds Tuesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as the central bank’s year-long mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchase program nears its scheduled March 31 close, opening the door for mortgage rate increases and surprising market fluctuations.
The Fed spent billions of dollars on MBS guaranteed by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) and Ginnie Mae weekly for the past year, topping out its portfolio at $1.25 trillion.
As the program ends, investors and analysts are speculating that mortgage rates could rise – and rise fast.
Stock Market Buying Power Hits New Rally High, as Demand Outpaces Supply
Checking in with the volume experts over at Lowry Research Corp., it appears that U.S. stock market buying power hit a new rally high last week, while selling pressure hit a new low.
That reflects the same pattern of expanding demand and contracting supply that has characterized the entire rally out of the March 2009 lows – a rally that’s now one year old.
According to Lowry analysts, if you look back over the past eight decades, every major market top has been preceded by a sustained period of rising supply and falling demand as profit-taking becomes increasingly aggressive.
And that’s not all. If you look at the six-month stretch that precedes a market top, advance/decline (A/D) lines have always deteriorated for at least six months before a major top. At the moment, by their measures, the U.S. market remains in the first phase of a long-term uptrend, which is the lowest-risk period for new buying after a bear market.
Bulls Overcome Market Tug of War to Send Stocks off to Strong March Start
Stocks rose briskly last week, resulting in a big week for the major market indexes. Weekly and monthly index charts improved, and such major U.S. stocks as The Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) emerged from flat-lining or faltering price patterns on decent, if not outstanding, volume.
Just two weeks ago, every one of the afore-mentioned stocks looked terrible, exhibiting intense apathy amid slow, grinding declines. Then the skies parted, and suddenly the sun is shining on these shares once again.
That’s why U.S. stocks are off to a strong March start – already up 4.1% from the end of February. And don’t forget, a year ago at about this time (March 9, 2009), the market reached its nadir: The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up 69.98% since that time.
Here’s why the shift seems so abrupt. The markets are now in a tug of war between two forces:
- On the plus side are good fourth-quarter earnings reports related to an improving economy.
- On the negative side – as a friend at a major macro hedge fund described it last week – are “frigid winds blowing across the credit icebergs.”
To find out who’s winning the stock-market tug of war, please read on…
Lehman Execs Have No One to Blame but Themselves
The U.S. bankruptcy-court examiner investigating the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. issued a stinging report Friday that accused senior executives of freewheeling accounting practices that led to the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and sparked the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The 2200-page report, authored by Anton Valukas, chairman of the Chicago-based law firm Jenner & Block LLP, also excoriated Wall Street investment banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) for finally pushing Lehman over the edge by demanding more collateral and changing guarantee agreements, Bloomberg News reported.
But the report says ultimate responsibility for its collapse can be attributed to a wrong-headed business model that rewarded excessive risk and encouraged leverage – problems that were brought to a head by the investment banks and government agencies.
New Banking Regulations … Same Old Story
U.S. banks, drunk with greed, drove the nation’s economy to the brink of financial Armageddon.
To save U.S. banks from losing their license to dangle the nation’s economy over a cliff, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the country’s elected elite threw them a bailout party and gifted them with
the accounting- world’s version of “Transformers. ”
Unfortunately, new banking regulations aimed at solving these problems are little more than the same old song and dance that forced the bailout – and stuck U.S. taxpayers with a multi-trillion-dollar tab.
To see how reformers have failed to fix the banking system, please read on…
What’s In Store for U.S. Stocks in Light of Greece’s Tragedy?
The recent month of February was quite interesting for U.S. stocks, because while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.6%, it didn’t exactly take a direct route to those gains: There were eight separate triple-digit moves in the Dow, both up and down.
At the root of that volatility were political and economic developments that challenged the rationale for the huge rally out of the March 2009 low. Bulls were basically rethinking their beliefs that the home-price plunge had abated, employment was on the verge of a big turnaround, governments could cut taxes and boost spending without end, and that interest rates would remain at zero for years.
I had prepared subscribers for much of this turmoil. Back in early November, I highlighted signs of trouble in the market for government debt well before the troubles in Dubai and Greece came to a head. In December, we started a dialogue on what to expect as the U.S. Federal Reserve withdrew liquidity from the economy and lifted interest rates. The upshot was a series of letters detailing why you should expect the first nine months of the year to trade flattish with a lot of volatility.
The Dividend Stock Recovery: Get Ready for a High-Yield Bonanza
It’s been a tough time for income investors lately.
Ten-year Treasuries pay less than 4%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index yields just over 2%. Money market fund returns are microscopic, paying an average of just 0.05%. (At that rate, it will take your money one thousand years to double.)
What should you do?
Take a look not at the stock market, but inside it. The S&P 500 may yield 2.1%, but many individual stocks are yielding far more. In addition, yields are about to arch higher.
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