Martin Hutchinson
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The Keystone Delay Won't Stop These Canadian Oil Sands Stocks
I'm not a knee-jerk hater of the Obama administration.
But the President's decision to reject the Keystone pipeline was one of his worst.
Aside from creating jobs, the pipeline would have decisively swung U.S. energy supplies more toward domestic sources and those of our friendly neighbor Canada.
Granted, the pipeline wouldn't create energy independence but it would mean importing less oil from the Middle East.
It is the kind of switch that could help save the U.S. large amounts of blood and treasure in the future.
Because in practice, our dependence on Middle Eastern oil forces us to incur huge foreign costs – after all, we just finished paying $800 billion for the Iraq war. As you know, that is just a drop in a much larger bucket.
Add in the human losses and the costs are incalculable.
In this case, caring less about what goes on in the Middle East – other than ensuring the safety of our ally Israel – would save us all those costs, and get us that much closer to balancing the damn Federal budget.
So let's just say shelving the Keystone pipeline wasn't exactly the president's finest hour.
Bullish on Canadian Oil Sands Stocks
However, while the Keystone Pipeline continues to twist in the wind, investors shouldn't ignore the Canadian energy sector – especially the Athabasca tar sands.
Because with oil prices on the rise, these Canadian resource plays are likely to offer investors serious returns.
Here's why: oil prices are headed higher.
In fact, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's recent promise that U.S. interest rates will remain near zero until the end of 2014 has given a huge boost to commodity and energy prices.
What's more, the $600 billion injection into EU banks and the promise of another $600 billion this month just adds more fuel to the inflationary flames.
Eventually, oil prices will get so high that they will cause a recession all by themselves, just like they did in 2008. But remember, that happened at $147 per barrel, so we've still got quite a way to go. This time oil could get closer to $200 per barrel.
That's bullish for places like the Athabasca tar sands.
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Not Much of a Debate: Inflation is Part of the Plan
Forget about lost decades. Forecasts that we'll be turning Japanese couldn't be further from the truth.
Here's why.
It's simple, really. Deflation is not in the interest of anybody in power, so it's very unlikely to happen.
The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy move to target inflation last week just re-emphasizes this point.
That's not to say deflation is a bad thing for everybody.
For savers and those living on fixed incomes, deflation would be a very good thing indeed.
Their income would gradually increase in real terms, and their savings would become steadily more valuable. Holders of Treasury bonds would also gain mightily from deflation.
However, the very people who would gain from deflation are not in power.
The People's Bank of China can't vote in the U.S. (yet!), Ron Paul is not president, and there is not an organized and powerful savers' political movement. After all, this is not Germany or Japan!
Meanwhile, in the real world, the U.S. government is spending far more than it takes in, and its debt is rising to dangerous levels. This has been happening on a bipartisan basis since at least 2001.
The Tea Party may have elected a Congress committed to reducing spending, but none of the battles of 2011 actually reduced spending – they just slowed the rate of growth somewhat.
Since much of the debt is borrowed long-term at low interest rates, the best way to reduce its burden on future generations is to encourage inflation.
Savers may lose out on the deal, but to those in Washington, the idea of inflating our way out of debt is irresistible.
Of course, sometimes we can depend on an independent central bank to resist this temptation. But at present, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is committed to near-zero interest rates in his fight against deflation.
Now you don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to realize that, if the power structure is committed to at least moderate inflation, inflation is what you are going to get.
In fact, it is already brewing.
Better Than Brazil: How to Invest in a Colombian Safe Haven
What's an investor to do?…
The Eurozone is about to collapse. The United States is struggling out of the deepest recession since World War II. And the IMF forecasts global growth will drop from 5% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2012.
How about investing in a safe haven far away from all of these troubles – one where you can actually watch your money grow?
I have found one in Colombia. Let me tell you why.
It is because Colombia is no longer a place controlled by drug kingpins or ripped apart by civil war. Colombia is a country on the comeback.
This revival began in 2002 when former president Alvaro Uribe decided to take on both the leftist guerillas and the drug barons. Since then, his successor Jose Santos has followed up on those policies, and they have worked.
In 2011, Colombia's homicides dropped by 5% to 14,746 and its murder rate dropped to 33 per 100,000 of population.
Admittedly, that's still five times the U.S. level, but these things are relative – it's half the level it was just four years ago.
Foreign investors have noticed, and last year, foreign investment in Colombia was up 56% to $14.8 billion.
Colombia Beats Brazil
In fact, according to the World Bank's "Doing Business" survey, Colombia ranked 42 out of 183 countries.
That was near the top spot in Latin America and far above Brazil's appalling rank of 126. Only Chile was higher with a rank of 39.
Stock market investors have noticed this, too – in the second half of 2011 Colombia had $4.9 billion of initial public offerings, the most in Latin America – and yes, again ahead of Brazil!
On the macroeconomic side, Colombia is sound, with public debt at just 45% of gross domestic product (GDP), a modest budget deficit, inflation just over 3% and the central bank base rate at 4.75% — no Ben Bernanke nonsense of zero interest rates!
Colombia has also gotten a boost by a surge in oil production, with exploration now possible in areas that had been "no go" for foreign investors for decades.
In November 2011, oil production was 920,000 barrels/day, up 17.5% from the previous year. Oil and minerals were responsible for 82% of Colombia's 2011 foreign investment, so the potential for investors is immense.
However, the real reason why Colombia is so attractive [To continue reading, please click here...]
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Restoring the Dream: State of the Union Pitches an Economy "Built to Last"
In a speech before the nation last night, President Obama's State of the Union Address spoke of a new American economy that is "built to last."
Of course, in the wake of the dot com bubble, the subprime mortgage fiasco and the funny money of the last decade, that's certainly an objective all of us can heartily agree with.
The American Dream is in need of repair.
The good news is that with one exception the President's State of the Union Address did outlined some useful steps that could be taken to help boost the economic recovery.
Naturally though, I think the details could use a little tweaking!
The Worthy Goals in the State of the Union Address
To start off with, the President outlined his primary strategy to help bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States. That's an entirely worthy objective.
What's more, this goal actually has a decent chance of being met— at least partially.
Here's why…
Chinese manufacturing costs have been rising rapidly over last few years, since its workforce is now demanding a larger share of the profits in the country's new found prosperity.
Also the President was correct when he claimed that there are several intrinsic advantages to manufacturing here in the states. As a result, the cost equation has been swinging pretty rapidly in favor of bringing manufacturing jobs back home.
His example of the Master Lock plant in Milwaukee running at full capacity for the first time in fifteen years is just part of a greater trend.
The President's proposal to lower corporate tax rates, while eliminating the loopholes that allow companies like General Electric to pay almost no U.S. taxes, will also undoubtedly help to bring even more manufacturing jobs back home.
Not only is this sensible, the President's proposal is politically clever as well.
After all, it's always pretty smart to call for something already starting to happen. That way your success is almost guaranteed!
Unfortunately, some of the President's other ideas were less satisfying…
How to Win Bernanke's War on Savers with a 19% Yield
There is no other way to put this… With his zero interest rate policy (ZIRP), U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has declared a virtual war on the nation's savers.
That's why savings-conscious investors have been forced out into the markets these days in search of higher yields.
Between 10-year notes offering yields under 2% and CD rates hovering near 1%, savers have been left little choice.
It is one of the reasons why high-paying dividend stocks have been in demand ever since the ZIRP crisis began.
For savvy investors looking to boost their yield, there's only one place to look…
They're called mortgage REITs, and they offer investors the chance to collect some of the highest dividend yields available today.
In fact, one of these investments is actually paying a 19% yield, right now!
That's not a typo. Double-digit yields like those really can be found if you know where to look for them.
I'll tell you more about this company in a moment. But first I'd like to explain to you what mortgage REITs are all about.
Mortgage REITs Explained
Real Estate Investment Trusts, or REITs, came into existence because of U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower's "Cigar Tax Excise Tax Extension" of 1960. Under this initially obscure tax provision, REITs can avoid corporate income tax, provided they invest in real estate-related assets and pay out at least 90% of their income in dividends to investors.
Mortgage REITs, as their name suggests, invest in residential and commercial mortgages.
Within the residential mortgage REIT category, some invest in agency-guaranteed REITs while others specialize in REITs that are not guaranteed.
Given the recent default rate on home mortgages, investors would be wise to concentrate on guaranteed agency mortgage REITs. This is due in part to Ben Bernanke's monetary policy since 2008.
Let me explain…
If You're Out of Work Blame Your Cell Phone
Times are tough out there.
We would like to blame China, incompetent politicians, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the banking system, or some unseen forces for this phenomenon.
But in reality, the answer is no further than our pockets. The real culprit is your cell phone.
The arrival of these gadgets changed everything…
That's because before the cell phone boom, it was very difficult to run an efficient international outsourcing operation. Until then, there were no means of communicating between different offices other than fax, telex, and the balky international telephone system.
Consequently, these communication barriers made manufacturing products overseas cumbersome and expensive.
And since there were relatively few outsourcing operations at the time, there was also an acute shortage of skilled employees in poor countries, making a difficult situation even worse.
As for competition, there wasn't much. That meant the jobs of workers in rich countries were still relatively secure.
But not for long.
Starting in 1995, the Internet and the modern telecommunications revolution changed everything.
The Race to the Bottom
Suddenly, these same barriers began to come down. The job market was changed forever.
Now it was possible to communicate on a real-time basis with factory or service operations in poor countries all across the globe. Outsourcing had been born.
At about the same time, the retail behemoth Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) discovered a China and the price advantage it could gain by manufacturing goods overseas. Wal-Mart's new world began to take shape.
Goods could now be designed by Wal-Mart, made to Wal-Mart's specifications and delivered to Wal-Mart stores in just a few weeks, enabling the retail giant to keep up with trends in fast-moving markets.
The rest, as they say, is history.
There was only one problem. This sea of change wasn't self-limiting.
To continue reading, please click here…
Emerging Markets Forecast 2012: Forget the BRICs! Here Are the Best Emerging Markets of 2012
Don't let the headlines fool you, there's lots of money to be made in global investing in 2012.
You're just going to have to be careful – more so than in years past – because right now the line drawn between successful markets and markets that are in danger of collapse is treacherously thin.
Take the fashionable growth markets, the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – for example.
It's been 10 years since Goldman Sachs Group's Chairman of Asset Management Jim O'Neill coined the BRIC acronym. His recommendation was certainly effective – one of the best of all time, even. But today, all four BRIC countries face problems, and their troubles illustrate the dangers of following investment fashions.
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The Madness of Crowds: How to Play Bonds, China, and Gold in 2012
Yes, I know that markets are irrational.
I read Charles Mackay's 1841 classic, "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" long before it ever became fashionable.
Even so, when you think about it, 2011 must set some kind of record.
As investors, that means we need to decide whether this madness will continue in 2012 and which direction to take.
Take the madness in the bond world, for instance.
Long-term bonds of a country with an out-of-control budget deficit and a worrying trade deficit are currently yielding 1.6% below inflation.
In other words, year after year, investors are willing to pay 1.6% of their capital to hold them. On top of that, investors have been so keen on this miserable asset in 2011 they have bid up its price by no less than 26%.
Conversely, China is revolutionizing the world economy.
Year after year, China puts up growth rates of 8% or more, and the latest data suggest that will continue throughout 2012.
What's more, Chinese stocks stand on a bargain-basement price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 8-times earnings. Yet, in 2011, investors shunned these bargains, giving the Chinese market a pathetic return of minus-22%.
It is Madness I Tell You
Do you see what I mean when I talk about irrational?
To a Martian, these statistics would be proof that earthly markets had lost their collective minds. That's not just a random walk – it's a deliberate stroll that will destroy your wealth.
For investors, it raises the question of how long this irrationality is going to last. Will this extreme irrationality persist in 2012, or will it reverse?
The first conclusion to be drawn is that current markets…
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An Investor's Guide to the 2012 Iowa Caucuses
Whether you see it as an example of direct democracy in action or an over-hyped media circus, there's no question that the Iowa caucuses will influence this year's presidential election.
Traditionally, the top three finishers in the Iowa caucuses have had the best shot at securing the Republican nomination for president. And while U.S. President Barack Obama has enjoyed a bit of a surge in the polls recently, he's far from a lock to win a second term.
So investors – regardless of their political affiliation – would be smart to closely consider each potential candidate's economic platform, as well as their chances of winning the nomination.
This year the Republican field is as competitive as I've ever seen. You can make a case for multiple candidates winning the caucuses, and any candidate could be boosted into the thick of the race by a strong finish.
Even the participants that are unlikely to win either Iowa or the nomination have significant strengths and policy ideas that could be absorbed by other candidates.
For investors, there are two criteria: First, how well will a candidate's ideas and personality play in the market and in the U.S. economy? And second, how likely is the candidate to beat President Obama in November 2012?
Generally, a Republican victory in 2012, if accompanied by Republican control of Congress, would be good for the market and would cut domestic public spending below that of a renewed Obama administration. It would also keep taxes lower, although a substantial tax increase is probably inevitable in 2013-14.
A Republican president would repeal Obama's healthcare legislation, although it's unlikely that that would save much money or solve healthcare's funding problems.
A Republican president also would probably replace U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, although a President Mitt Romney or President Newt Gingrich would be unlikely to change the overall "loose money" thrust of monetary policy unless forced to do so.
Most likely Republican candidates would also pursue a more aggressive – and expensive – foreign policy than a re-elected Obama. So unless a real budget-cutter is elected, there will be little improvement in the U.S. budgetary position and a likely worsening in inflation over time, leading to another financing crisis well this side of 2016.
That said, let's take a detailed look at each candidate in this field guide to the 2012 Iowa Caucuses.
Jon HuntsmanJr.
Jon Huntsman, 51, was President Obama's Ambassador to China after being Governor of Utah. In Utah, he increased spending 33% during his term, not a good sign for his ability to balance the federal budget. He also backed "cap and trade" legislation on global warming and the 2007 immigration amnesty bill.
In an attempt to attract economic conservatives, he has put forward a supply-side tax reform, but he appears blocked by Mitt Romney, another moderate Mormon, in his attempt to gain traction. His best shot is New Hampshire on Jan. 10, but unless Romney fades very fast, he's unlikely to go much further. However, he is media-savvy, which could help. Still, he's not viable as a vice presidential candidate for either Ron Paul or Rick Perry, because the neoconservative lobby (which wants an aggressive foreign policy) does not like his fairly dovish foreign policy views.
If by some fluke he won the nomination, he'd have a good chance against Obama, and if elected, he'd probably be quite a good middle-of-the-road president and good for the market.
Rick Santorum
Rick Santorum, 53, was Senator from Pennsylvania 1995-2007, unluckily losing his 2006 re-election bid by 18%. He's the darling of the social conservatives and of the neocon foreign policy hawks, with an economic policy of tax breaks for manufacturing.
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