Results for Martin Hutchinson
The Truth About Inflation…
Question: It seems to me that a large portion of “capital gains” is actually caused by inflation (depreciation of the value of the dollar) and that the federal tax on capital gains is just another way to unjustly penalize (gouge)…
Will Obama’s “Soft Money” Fed Lead to Hard Times for the U.S. Economy?
For a U.S. president, nominating Fed governors is a little like nominating Supreme Court justices: Since they serve a 14-year term, you have the chance to shape the U.S. Federal Reserve for a decade after your administration ends. What’s more – even though Fed governors are subject to confirmation by the U.S. Senate – you’re far less likely to have trouble getting them through than you do with the Supremes.
That’s why U.S. President Barack Obama’s current chance to nominate three out of the seven Fed governors is legitimate front-page news – and isn’t merely the "inside monetary baseball" trivia that occupies much of the daily business section. Probably two of those three governors still will be serving in 2020, long after President Obama has published his memoirs.
The bottom line: One of President Obama’s legacies will be a "soft money" Fed.
It’s Time to Invest in Canada
This isn’t the first time that I’ve written about Canada, a well-run country that has avoided many of the mistakes made by the United States. Its budget deficit is moderate, its balance-of-payments deficit is also small, its banking system is in pretty good shape and it faces very little inflation risk, since the country has maintained a reasonable monetary policy.
At this point, you might well be asking: Well, if you’ve said this all before, why does it bear repeating now?
The answer is simple: As I’ve hunted for attractive investments recently, I have noticed that a very high percentage of those companies are domiciled north of the border.
In short, it’s time to invest in Canada.
To discover the profit opportunities available just north of the border, please read on…
European Bailout Fund Proposal … Just Another Bad Idea
Has bailout mania finally reached Europe?
The 16 nations that make up the Eurozone are seriously exploring the creation of a “European Monetary Fund,” a bailout fund that would help euro-member countries that can’t pay their debts.
This has the potential to be a pretty good idea. If structured correctly, the EMF could provide the discipline and stability that the euro needs.
However, I’m not holding my breath: Given the EU’s track record, the EMF bailout plan will most likely evolve into yet another slush fund for politicians – as well as a drag on the European economy.
History proves Europe’s bailout-fund proposal is unworkable. Read on to see why…
Six Ways to Profit as Brazil’s Economy Takes Off
In many ways, Brazil offers some of the best prospects among emerging markets and deserves to be a core holding in any international portfolio.
Brazil’s economy had only a shallow recession and is now recovering nicely. Its market has been one of the best performing since Dec. 31, 2008, and both inflation and the budget deficit remain under control.
Yet one can be only moderately bullish – and I’ll explain why.
To find out how to profit from Brazil’s bullish prospects, read on…
How to Profit from the Next Spike in Oil Prices
Earlier this week, British company Desire PLC (Pink Sheets: DSPMF) began drilling in an offshore block of the Falkland Islands. Immediately, Argentina President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner let loose with a howl of rage, and the Summit of Latin American and Caribbean Unity issued a protest against the British company’s drilling operations.
Argentina’s claim to the Falklands had remained dormant since the war 28 years ago, yet the moment the drill bit touched seabed the years rolled away. This showed yet again that oil remains salient to international politics and the world economy in a way shared by no other commodity. So how should investors play it?
For the best ways to profit from rising oil prices, read on…
The Chinese Are Selling Treasuries – So What Are They Buying?
In the monthly U.S. Treasury report this week, it was announced that China had sold $34.2 billion of Treasuries in December (or allowed short-term ones to run off), making Japan once again the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries.
The battle between China and Japan for the title of largest holder of this dubious asset is not very interesting. What’s more interesting is the question of where China is instead opting to invest. After all, $34.2 billion is a fair chunk of change, and China’s overall reserves are growing – not shrinking – and now total $2.4 trillion.
The People’s Bank of China usually keeps its holdings a carefully guarded secret, much more so than for most central banks – our knowledge of its holdings of Treasuries comes from U.S. data, not from China. We do, however, have some evidence about the Chinese government’s investment thinking, thanks to the holdings of China Investment Corp., the country’s $200 billion sovereign wealth fund.
To discover the details of China’s global investments, please read on…
How Banks Are “Crowding Out” the U.S. Rebound
When U.S. President Barack Obama unveiled the $787 billion "stimulus" bill of extra spending and modest tax cuts last year, it became clear that the U.S. budget deficit was going to eclipse the 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) level for at least one year (and, as we now know, probably three years).
On those grounds, I opposed the "stimulus" – a position that was a lot less popular then than it has since become. However, as I’ll show you below, it now looks as if I was right – and the implications for the U.S. economy are highly worrisome.
You see, the theory postulated by economist John Maynard Keynes holds that the extra spending stimulates additional output fails to address the question of where the money comes from.
Government cannot create wealth – it has to borrow it. If, before the stimulus, government finances were in good shape, as was the case in China, then stimulus does indeed stimulate: The modest budget deficit that it causes is easily financed, and the extra spending creates some jobs and maybe some useful infrastructure, depending on how well targeted it is.
In the United States, however, government finances were in a mess before the stimulus began.
Despite India’s Optimism, There May Be a Better Time to Buy
The Indian government announced Monday that the country’s economy was expected to expand by 7.2% during the fiscal year that ends next month.
Agriculture – which had been expected to be a major drag on the economy because of a poor monsoon season – contracted a mere 0.2%. That is a truly stellar performance, showing that India – like China – has emerged almost unscathed from the global economic meltdown. It would pretty well justify the Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd.’s rich Price/Earnings multiple of 20 and would make Indian stocks a "Buy" even at these levels.
Unfortunately, when looked at closely, the picture is not quite so rosy.
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