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The Looming Bear Market: What You Can do That Washington Can't and Wall Street Won't
I just finished a battery of media appearances on Fox Business, Bloomberg, BNN and CNBC Asia, and without exception I was asked about two things: President Barack Obama's jobs bill and the U.S. Federal Reserve's "QE3."
The first thing investors and analysts alike want to know is whether or not the president's jobs bill will work. The answer to that question is "no" – not as it stands, anyway.
The second question is whether or not Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will further extend the central bank to help the economy. Well, I do think the Fed will intervene, but I don't believe for a second that the central bank's intervention will help the U.S. economy.
As a result, we're likely to see stocks enter into a bear market and retest their March 2009 lows.
I know that's a terrifying thought. But to be perfectly honest, there's nothing President Obama or Bernanke can do at this point. If companies don't want to spend the $2 trillion worth of cash they're hoarding, there's very little the government can do to encourage them to loosen their purse-strings.
That said, I want to give you five specific steps to take to protect yourself from the looming bear market, preserve your sanity – and even profit.
But before I get to that, you need to understand the dangers that are fast approaching.
A Roadblock to Recovery
President Obama and Chairman Bernanke can toss all the money they want at the economy. But no amount of spending can change the fact that we need the following three things to get our market moving again. They are:
- Sustained demand.
- A solution to the European sovereign debt crisis.
- And a bottom in housing prices.
As it currently stands, the U.S. economy will be lucky to log 1% growth this year, which is even lower than the anemic 1.5% I predicted in my annual forecast in January.
That's pathetic for a nation that spent more than $1.4 trillion of borrowed money on "stimulus." This lackluster growth is also evidence that the Obama administration's $800 billion stimulus plan – and the Fed's two rounds of quantitative easing – did absolutely nothing to salvage our economy.
Citizens are scared silly. Businesses are uncertain. They're uncertain of regulatory changes, uncertain of taxes, and uncertain about their overall economic environment. So they're doing what rational people do when confronted with the unknown: They're hunkering down.
And with good reason.
The typical U.S. family got poorer during the past 10 years due to a decade-long income decline. Median household income fell to $49,995 last year, and is now 7% below where it was in 2000. The number of people living in poverty has risen to 15.1%, the highest level since the U.S. Census began tracking this information in 1959.
It should also be noted that a large portion of that decline is directly attributable to inflation, which the Fed continues to assert is "transitory."
Out of the Fire…
You may be holding out hope that the president's jobs plan will help turn things around – but it won't.
Are You Betting on a Bull Market?
On March 9, the U.S bull market in stocks will celebrate its second birthday.
But what everyone really wants to know is this: A year from now, will we be celebrating again – or will we be trying to outrun the bear?
So far, 2011 is delivering on that bull market promise. The just-finished month of February represents the third straight month of U.S. stock-market gains.
All three major indices are up more than 5% so far this year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose 3.02% in February and 2.26% in January. In fact, even with the damage that the Middle East crisis inflicted on stock prices at the end of last month, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each enjoyed their strongest February showing since 1998.
Strong Second-Quarter Earnings Can't Keep the Bears at Bay
The second-quarter earnings season has gotten off to a strong start, but it's been no match for bears who are less than thrilled with future earnings prospects.
More than half of the companies on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index have reported second-quarter earnings results. And so far, they've been strong, with two-thirds of those companies beating earnings estimates, three-fifths beating on sales and almost half beating on both earnings and sales.
As a result, the consensus second-quarter earnings per share estimate has climbed to $20.63 from $19.60 at the beginning of the month. Merrill Lynch analysts expect final second-quarter earnings per share to come in at $20.75 – a 5% sequential improvement from the first quarter.
That would be a deceleration from the 15% sequential growth seen between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, but it's good growth nonetheless. In fact, it puts 2010 S&P 500 earnings at about $83 per share. And at current prices, that gives the market a price-to-earnings multiple of just 13.3-times – below the long-term historical average of 15.
Bull Market Update: U.S. Stocks Are Hanging By a Thread – But It's a Tough Thread
If you ask me, the current bull market in U.S. stocks is hanging by a thread.
In fact, a decline that takes the Standard & Poor's 500 Index down below the 1,040 level – roughly 7% below where it closed yesterday (Wednesday) – would probably murder the bull-market case for stocks.
But until that decline actually occurs, don't rule the bulls out for the count.
That "thread" may be tougher than you think.
Is the Plunge in Commodities a Bear Market Signal for Stocks?
The biggest slump in commodity prices since 2008 is undermining confidence on Wall Street and fueling speculation that a new bear market has been born.
Despite forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices, commodities, with the notable exception of gold, are taking a big hit.
The Journal of Commerce (JOC) Commodity Index that tracks the growth rate of steel, cattle hides, tallow and burlap plunged 57% in May, the most since October 2008 – something that gave analysts a sense of déjà vu.
Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away, or Ride the Bull Awhile Longer?
I'm sure you have heard the old saw that it's a smart idea to "sell in May and go away."
That concept is based on the notion that the May-to-November span provides a weak environment for investors. I have already heard the cry go up recently because the major indexes are already up a lot more than anyone expected, and this would seem to be a convenient time to take profits.
Yet like most old market adages, there's not much substance to the concept if you take a good look at history.
Question of the Week: Overlooked Problems Will Kill the U.S. Bull Market
[Editor's Note: Let's hear your thoughts on next week's Money Morning Question of the Week: How confident are you in the U.S. jobs market? Do you feel that the U.S. employment outlook is getting better, getting worse, or essentially just holding its own? Are you in the job you want to be working in? If not, why not? E-mail your responses to mailbag@moneymappress.com. Don't miss your chance to let your "vote" be heard !]
The U.S. stock market has staged one of its most powerful rallies in history, zooming nearly 70% in the 12 months that followed the March 9, 2009 market low. U.S. stocks soared another 5% during the first three months of 2010 – its best first quarter in a dozen years. But where do we go from here?
Between the New York Stock Exchange continuously reaching new highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising up along its eight-day average, and a rebounding retail sector, there's reason to celebrate what appears to be a market recovery offering investors profit opportunities.
"You can't bury your head in the sand and ignore what's happening," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "If you did that, you've missed a 60%-plus rally in the [Standard & Poor's 500 Index] since early last March. You cannot fail to acknowledge what's happening" in the markets, even though top traders understand that cheap money from the government bailout – and not a well-rounded economic recovery – is most likely behind the torrid run-up in U.S. share prices.
Money Morning Question of the Week: Is this a true bull market? A year from now, are U.S. stocks – as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index – trading higher, lower, or at the same level as they are today?
What follows are some of the most well thought-out responses we received (as well as a previous comment regarding the bull vs. bear market argument posted on our Web site) with many agreeing this bull market is too good to be true.
Despite the Near-Record Run in U.S. Stocks, Oil, Commodities and China Will be the Long-Term Winners
Although U.S. stocks have made a fairly smooth transition into Year Two of what's so far been a near-record bull market, there are still many traps that can quickly ensnare a less-than-cautious investor.
Moving forward, investors need to focus on quality, take the time to understand what's really happening in Washington, and turn to such once-unconventional investments as oil, commodities and China stocks, says Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald.
"I expect the markets to remain very fragmented. Volatility will almost certainly increase, leaving investors both psychologically scarred and totally confused," Fitz-Gerald said, underscoring the need for investors to embrace a truly global view. "Fully 75% of the economic activity on the planet now takes place outside U.S. borders. So it only makes sense that investors embrace new ways of thinking in order to avoid getting left behind. At the same time, energy and commodities still have a long way to run – meaning there's substantial profit potential available."
In a wide-ranging interview, the former professional trade advisor, best-selling author and noted Asia-investing expert:
- Predicted that oil and commodity prices are headed higher, making them "must-invest" asset classes for investors who don't want to be left behind.
- Stated that ongoing miscues in Washington coupled with higher growth abroad make it imperative that U.S. investors embrace a truly global view when planning their investing strategies.
- And predicted that many blue-chip U.S. companies will go for dual-listings, listing their shares on China's Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), providing those U.S.-based firms with access to the plentiful capital and robust growth available in that Asian giant's marketplace.
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