From the Editor: Subscribers who followed Keith's most recent play on U.S. Treasuries locked in a 100% gain on Friday. But "this game is a long way from over," he says. So here's what he's recommending now. Take notes. "Home run potential" isn't a phrase Keith uses lightly...
Halfway through Wednesday's session, stocks are in danger of closing in the red for a fifth straight day. And this is all you'll hear about today.
Yet bonds are telling you the real story.
In fact, at this point, they are the next best thing to the Holy Grail if you've got the right perspective and understand what's happening.
This is a big moment.
It's big for uber-investors like Bill Gross, who just experienced something brand-new for PIMCO.
And it's big for you.
So at the very least, strongly consider the first move I'm going to show you today. You don't have to buy a single bond to take advantage of its home run potential. The other two moves I'm going to share with you simply "ice the cake."
But let's go back to the 1980s for a minute, when all this payoff potential began to build...
Insights on Interest Rates: Why Treasury Bonds Are No Longer the Market Bellwether
Divining the direction of interest rates used to be a lot easier.
With the Federal Funds Rate, policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve would indicate precisely what they wanted the overnight lending rate between big banks to be. And the prices of U.S. Treasury securities of all maturities fell in line like obedient soldiers.
But things have changed.
Forget about watching the Fed Funds Rate now. That central bank benchmark has ranged between 0.00% and 0.25% for a couple of years now. Going forward, i t's not going to be an indicator of interest-rate movement, because it's not going to change much.
Sure the Fed wants it there. But more to the point, the Fed Funds Rate remains in that range because all the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) are far bigger now, are lending less, and have huge excess reserves on which they'd love to earn an overnight profit. So for now and for the foreseeable future, they'll be plenty to lend between giant "TBTF" club members.
And t hanks to its "quantitative-easing" (QE) strategy, the Fed is essentially monetizing the U.S. Treasury's debt by buying in the secondary market from primary dealers like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) the equivalent of every new issue that comes to market.
The net result: There's no real gauge of demand because the Federal Reserve has hijacked the free market.
To understand the workings of the "new" interest-rate market, please read on...