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Currency War

How to Profit from the Currency War China Just Started


The People's Bank of China uses its massive reserves to buy or sell the yuan to maintain a desired exchange rate. It's been pegged to the U.S. dollar in some way for decades.

So, a strong dollar has often meant a strong yuan.

I wasn't shocked, though. It was a logical move after all, and its implications open a nice profit opportunity for us...

Currency Wars: China Now Has Unprecedented Control Over the U.S. Dollar


China fired a shot heard 'round the world Aug. 11, stoking fears of what could become the ugliest of all currency wars. In a surprise move, the country massively devalued the yuan 2% - its biggest one-day devaluation in 20 years.

China's yuan devaluation will have more than just that immediate impact - it gives the country unprecedented, long-term control over the U.S. dollar.

Here's how China has managed to place the U.S. dollar on puppet strings...

U.S. Financial War with Iran to Trigger Dollar Collapse

Dow Jones futures today

The U.S. is waging a dangerous financial war with Iran right now.

And if it's not managed carefully, it could embolden the dollar's enemies to mount a counterattack on the U.S. currency.

Such a move could destroy the U.S. dollar as we know it...

The Best Currencies to Invest in for 2013

Sure, the U.S. dollar has been rising – but that will end. So, here’s your all-star list of the best currencies to invest in for 2013. Read more...

How to Profit From the Currency War

Money pyramid If you want to know how to profit from the currency war, just look to Japan.

That's because Japan's aggressive move to cheapen the yen in order to stimulate its own economy is working.

Of course, Money Morning's Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald predicted this would happen months ago, and he was dead on.

But even if you missed the first moves in this currency war, it's not too late to profit.

To hear Keith explain how investors can still take advantage of the "race to the bottom" and profit from the global currency war,

click here.

Why Your Financial Future Will Be Built Upon the Chinese Yuan

Currency yuan

It’s the Yuan’s world, and the West is just living in it.
It’s no coincidence that Yuan-settled trade jumped 41.3% - to nearly three trillion Yuan - in 2012, after it increased by more than 300% in 2011.
In fact, since June 2005, the Chinese Yuan has risen 24.66% against the U.S. dollar, backed in part by 1.3 billion consumers and real assets. To borrow a tech term, China's currency is the world’s new “killer app.”
Here’s how you can make it part of your investing future

Are You About to Lose Your Savings in the Currency War?

In the Currency War, the "end game" is a race to the bottom. Because really, under a fiat money system, there's nowhere else to go.
Unfortunately, I believe the U.S. is on the same path.
This was just confirmed by Kyle Bass, founder and principal of Hayman Capital Management, a Dallas hedge fund, who has profited handsomely from prescient calls on events from the subprime mortgage meltdown to Greek sovereign debt restructuring. In a recent discussion with a senior Obama official, Bass disclosed that he asked how the U.S. would be able to grow exports if they don't allow nominal wage deflation. The official's answer: "We're just going to kill the dollar."
There is one way to protect your net worth from all these central bank shenanigans. In my view, the answer is to own and accumulate gold.
So I suggest you ignore what central banks say, and instead do what they do...

Is Japan About to Fire the First Shots in a 1930s Style Currency War?

The great currency risk right now is not the "race to the bottom" you hear about, but a full-blown 1930s-style currency war.
This is not front-page news yet, but I have a sneaking suspicion it will be shortly...
It's going to blindside Washington and most of Europe, where central bankers, politicians, and economists fail to recognize that events from nearly 100 years ago are now primed to repeat themselves. Worse, it will devastate an entire class of investors who have put their faith in the current economic dogma of endless bailouts and money printing.
I'll explain what happened in 1931 in a moment. But first, ironically, this currency war won't start because of international problems. Instead, it will be touched off in earnest because of domestic concerns - only not American ones.
Here are three reasons I think Japan will fire the first shots.

Three Ways to Profit as China Dumps Japanese Debt

As a veteran trader, I have a tendency to look past the day's top headlines. That's why a recent Bloomberg News story - which stated that China sold a net total of 769.2 billion yen ($9.24 billion) worth of Japanese debt in September - really caught my eye.

By itself, this story probably wouldn't be a big deal. But this development is the start of an important new trend in the global currency markets. And the following three factors tell me that we should be taking a close look at why China has decided to dump Japanese debt. For instance:

  • Given that the same thing happened in August, September marked the second straight month Beijing has sold more Japanese securities than it purchased.
  • This marks the reversal of a seventh-month stretch of China being a net purchaser of Japanese debt.
  • The two months of sales nearly wiped out the net surplus of 2.32 trillion yen ($27.86 billion) that China had amassed as a result of seven months of buying Japanese debt.
  • Finally, the 2.02 trillion yen ($24.26 billion) worth of Japanese debt that China sold in August was China's single-largest monthly sale of Japan government bonds since 1995, when these statistics first started being recorded.
While there are other conceivable explanations, my take is that China is definitely unloading its yen-denominated holdings, and shifting its investments elsewhere as part of a much bigger reallocation strategy. As investors, this is a trend that we need to track - and to react to.

Let me explain....

To understand how to profit from this currency-market development, please read on...

United States To Face Attacks on Quantitative Easing Policy at G20 Summit as Currency War Rages On

The United States will go on the defense at this week's Group of 20 (G20) meeting, having to explain its quantitative easing (QE2) policy to foreign leaders who have criticized the move as a currency war tactic to weaken the dollar and damage other countries' export-driven recoveries.

China, Brazil, Germany and South Africa all have spoken out against the U.S. Federal Reserve's announcement last week that it will buy $600 billion in U.S. Treasuries through June. Finance policymakers from around the globe say the move will depress the dollar and drive capital flows to emerging markets, creating asset bubbles.

Brazil's central bank president Henrique Meirelles said the extra liquidity in the U.S. economy would cause "risks for everyone," and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the Fed's move "clueless."

Read More…

Currency War Carries On as G-20 Meeting Fails to Secure Specific Trade Targets

Despite securing an agreement from Group of 20 (G-20) officials to avoid weakening their currencies any further, the Obama administration failed to convince member countries to implement specific guidelines to measure compliance and monitor trade imbalances.

At a meeting last weekend in Gyeongju, South Korea, finance ministers from both developed and emerging economies agreed to try to maintain trade balances at "sustainable levels," which they left to be negotiated at a future date. They were unable to reach consensus on precise targets, as the United States proposed. G-20 members will meet again in Seoul on Nov. 11 and 12.

The G-20 was able to hammer out a deal to get China and the United States - as well as the other G-20 nations - to agree to "refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies," and to let markets set foreign-exchange values. China is widely seen as keeping its currency undervalued to boost its exports, while the United States has been accused of pursuing a weak dollar policy, also to increase its overseas shipments.

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Money Morning Mailbag: China Needs to Boost Domestic Demand to Continue Economic Recovery

China released data this week showing its economy grew 9.6% in the third quarter from a year earlier, slower than years past but still significantly ahead of other countries that are struggling to stabilize their economies.

A slight dip in growth is what China wanted. Its gross domestic product (GDP) has grown on average more than 10% annually since 2006. The country's central bank lifted rates this week by 0.25 percentage points for the first time since 2007 to further cool the risk of overheating.

While working to maintain a healthy level of growth, China now has to contend with other countries devaluing their currencies to compete against a cheap yuan that is fueling an export-driven recovery. However, the whole world can't depend on exports – somewhere along the line there must be growth in demand.

Read More…

Currency War: China Stands Firm on Yuan as Global Criticism Escalates

Germany and Japan are joining the U.S. in pressuring Beijing to let the yuan appreciate to prevent an international currency war from spiraling out of control. Still, China remains firm that a gradual rate change is all it will allow.

German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle warned yesterday (Wednesday) that a trade war could erupt if China didn't float its currency for a more fair value. As the China-U.S. currency tensions have heated up, other countries are saying China's unfair trade advantage is threatening export-driven recoveries around the globe.

"We have to take care that the currency war doesn't become a trade war," Bruederle told German business paper Handelsblatt. "China bears a lot of responsibility for ensuring that it doesn't come to an escalation."

Read More…

Question of the Week: Investors Seek Metals To Soften Blow of Global Currency War

The housing market remains in the dumper. U.S. stocks - despite a rally - are still 22% below their record highs of two years ago. And the "official" unemployment rate remains at a heart-stopping 9.6%.

With their knees almost ready to buckle under such burdens already, how will American consumers respond when clothes, computer accessories and other key consumer staples at their neighborhood Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) undergo an overnight price hike of 30% to 60%?

As the United States aims to increase exports by debasing the dollar, a global currency war is underway that could swallow consumers and investors if they don't prepare for the likelihood of a weaker dollar.

The United States, China, Switzerland, Brazil, South Korea, Australia, Japan have all entered the war, trying to bring down their currencies to boost exports and fuel growth. Countries are vying to win the "race to the bottom," as it's been called by Money Morning Contributing Writer Peter Schiff.

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You Heard it Here First: China's Plan to Dethrone the Dollar Continues to Unfold

The U.S. dollar is on the way out as the world's top reserve currency. And as Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald predicted more than a year and a half ago, the yuan could be set to replace it.

The greenback has served as the world's benchmark reserve currency since the mid-20th century, but soaring deficits and the U.S. Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy have drained the dollar's value. Meanwhile, emerging markets - many of which are vibrant manufacturing hubs, net creditors, and have rich caches of commodities - are more fiscally sound than the United States, which has a $1.3 trillion budget deficit.

"If you look at the fundamentals of a lot of these emerging markets, they are considerably better than developed markets," Kenneth Akintewe, a Singapore-based investment manager at Aberdeen Asset Management PLC told Bloomberg in an Oct. 11 interview. "Who wants to be holding U.S. dollars at this stage?"

China, which leads the world with more than $2 trillion in currency reserves held mostly in U.S. Treasuries, is chief among the countries seeking respite from the dollar's decline. Beijing has long bemoaned the depreciation of the dollar, stating outright that it should be replaced as the world's main reserve currency.

Read More…