Dow Jones Industrial Average
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Why Second Quarter Earnings Haven't Spurred a Stock Market Rally
Second quarter earnings season is in full swing on Wall Street and investors are keeping a close eye on corporate profits.
But rather than pinning their hopes on earnings for relief from the recent downturn in stocks, investors seem to be suffering from tunnel vision. They're ignoring numerous positive earnings reports and instead focusing on macro-economic trends to determine the day-to-day fate of the markets.
And as a slew of economic reports continue to display conflicting trends, investors are finding it difficult to read the tea leaves. So far this earnings season, the market and the investors that drive it are all over the place.
The result has been a string of volatile trading days featuring gyrating and erratic stock trading.
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What Can 1962 Tell Us About Today's Stock Market?
We dove into market history a lot recently with studies of the 3%+ up day a couple weeks ago as well as a look at the growth rate of the index of Leading Economic Indicators. The takeaway: History suggests there are grounds for being optimistic about the stock market.
Now here's a new reason for optimism: The current situation bears a striking resemblance to the 1962 summer stock market rebound.
Here's the scoop: In early 1962, a head-and-shoulders pattern emerged that looked very similar to the one that appeared to have taken shape in April-June this year. When the neckline of the pattern was violated in April 1962, stocks fell like a ton of bricks into a June low that was ultimately 27% lower than the January 1962 high.
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Four Factors to Consider Before Determining Your Long-Term View on U.S. Stocks
Stocks rose worldwide over the past week -- ranging from +2% in U.S. big caps to +6% ingold -- as investors swelled with sudden courage in response to positive reports on Chinese economy and glimmers of hope that European governments can get their financial houses in order.
The week's results erased four weeks of losses, including the despairing session that ensued on June 7 after a disappointing report on U.S. employment. Meanwhile, the result of the past 35 trading days, or seven calendar weeks, are still largely negative, ranging from a loss of 5.5% for U.S. stocks and -8.5% for Europe. Only gold stocks have eluded the smoke monster, rising 7% in the span.
The variation in one-week and one-month results illustrate perfectly how investors are showing that they arehopeful but unconvincedthat recent strength in gross domestic product (GDP) growth and corporate income advances are sustainable, and therefore won't buy stocks heavily until prices are so cheap that they discount worst-case scenarios. In other words, they want a high risk premium before buying -- sort of like demanding a 72-month warranty before buying an expensive car.
To read about the four factors you should consider before investing click here.
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Two Big Reasons to Believe the U.S. Stock Market Will Bounce Back
There's been a lot of cheerless news coming out of Europe lately, and that's taken a toll on the U.S. stock market. But I want to take this opportunity to offer up some positive points and remind investors that it's still too early to declare the bull-market dead, and even more premature to fret over a new bear market beginning.
There are two key considerations that support a continued rise in U.S. stocks:
To find out why it's too early to give up on stocks, read on... -
Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Market Volatility Query
The Dow Jones Industrial Average last week dipped below 10,000 for the first time since February as a month of market volatility and price declines continued. Analysts predicted volatility to continue into June as government exit strategies begin and liquidity dwindles.
The zooming rebound in U.S. stock prices from their March 9, 2009 bottom - the strongest rebound since the Great Depression - has been stymied by concerns over the Eurozone debt contagion, financial reform, the market flash crash and new political sparks in Korea. Figures show that the bulls are still hanging around - on the sidelines - but the bears have been calling the shots during a month that has seen stock prices fall more than 8%.
"I think it's a question of pick your poison," Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told MarketWatch. "The market was poised for a very severe correction and whether it's southern Mediterranean countries or worries about German banks, you can pick your catalyst." -
We Want to Hear From You: How Are You Responding to Market Volatility?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped below 10,000 Tuesday for the first time since February as a month of market volatility and price declines continued.
The zooming rebound in U.S. stock prices from their March 9, 2009 bottom - the strongest rebound since the Great Depression - has been stymied by concerns over the Eurozone debt contagion, financial reform, the market flash crash and new political sparks in Korea. Data shows that the bulls are still hanging around - on the sidelines - but the bears have been calling the shots during a month that has seen stock prices fall more than 8%.
"I think it's a question of pick your poison," Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told MarketWatch. "The market was poised for a very severe correction and whether it's southern Mediterranean countries or worries about German banks, you can pick your catalyst."
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Will Extreme Volatility Actually Stabilize the Markets?
Stocks tumbled across the board last week like a pair of dice rumbling around a craps table, rocked by extreme volatility. Just when it looked like they were rolling up the unnerving loss of the critical 200-day average on Thursday, bulls' returned to the fray and pushed the major indexes just barely back into safe territory.
But is the market really safe? It's currently at the bottom of its multi-week range, so this is the time to get bullish again if you think the range will remain in force. The S&P 500 Index actually touched its February 2010 low on Friday before rebounding, which will give all the range-traders a green light.
Click Here to Find Out What Last Week's Extreme Volatility Means for the Markets...
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The Real Story Behind Last Week's Stock-Market Panic
Thursday's U.S. stock market trading session qualified as a genuine stock-market "panic." They're rare, fortunately, so they're memorable.
You can say you were there.
According to the volume analysts at Lowry Research Corp., this stock market panic was on par with the mini crash of October 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9% in a single day. But it wasn't on par with the famed session of October 1987, when the Dow plunged 22.6% in a day.
For an in-depth analysis of last week's U.S. stock market panic, please read on...
