Taipan Daily: Trillion Shmillion – Europe's "Common Currency" Is Still Doomed
As far as the euro goes, the trillion-dollar "shock and awe" program was a shocking disappointment. Here's why.
"... while Europeans no longer fear foreign armies, they are starting to fear foreign bondholders. Europe's existence as a "lifestyle superpower' has depended on an ample supply of credit... "
- Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
"...this is just another example of a short-term, leveraged solution, that merely adds to the burden of future problems..."
- Marc Ostwald, Monument Securities
Odds of IMF Bailout Increase as Greek Bond Prices Plummet
Prices for Greek 10-year bonds plummeted to record lows today (Thursday) on speculation Europe's most troubled economy is about to unravel.
Economists expressed new doubts over the country's banks and short term funding plans and warned that recent developments now threaten to create a vicious cycle of bad news.
"The fear factor is beginning to creep in. In fact, it's galloping in," Neil Mellor, a senior currencies analyst at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK) in London told The Wall Street Journal.
Irish Banks Get Bailout as Ireland Continues Drastic Moves to Leave PIGS Behind
Ireland's government will extend more aid to the nation's banks in an effort to salvage the economy and avoid going down the same path as struggling Greece.
The Irish government has set up a "bad bank" to help the banking sector rebound from massive losses on loans to property developers. The National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) will apply an average discount of 47% to $21.5 billion (16 billion euros) of loans in the first tranche. The bank will take over a total of $107 billion ($80 billion euros) of loans, transferring the debt from the balance sheets of Ireland's biggest banks - Allied Irish Banks, PLC (NYSE ADR: AIB) and Bank of Ireland (NYSE ADR: IRE).
"It looks like they are going to try and take all the pain now," said Stephen Taylor, strategist at Dolmen Securities. "It looks likely that at this stage the state is going to have to increase its ownership of the banks."
Beware of Eurozone Plans for Greek Debt Bailout
An old proverb dating back to the Trojan War tells us to "beware of Greeks bearing gifts."
Today, with the fate of the European euro and perhaps even the entire Eurozone region hanging in the balance - and Greece needing a bailout to avoid default on its massive public debt - a more-appropriate warning might be: "Beware of Greeks seeking gifts."
Unfortunately, European finance ministers are looking at a bailout proposal that would amount to little more than an outright gift.
And it's a gift that - in my opinion - should never be given.
To understand the risks posed by a bailout-plan for Greece, please read on. Read More...
Germany: The "Must-Invest" Economy
If you're a U.S. investor, you can't be happy about the prospects for your portfolio. After all, you're mostly trapped in an economy with a gigantic and dangerous financial-services sector, a central bank that can't stop itself from printing money and a government that overspends wildly.
But there is an answer: You should consider allocating some of that "at-risk" capital to a country that has none of those problems - Germany.
Germany has a banking system, of course, but that banking system is not the overgrown financial-services monster that we have here in the United States (or, for that matter, in Great Britain). It's impossible to get a subprime mortgage in Germany: Even now - and even after mortgage levels have crept up in recent years - the average down payment for the purchase of a new home in this key Eurozone nation is 50%. As a result, the homeownership rate in Germany is only 43%, the lowest rate in the European Union.
That's actually healthy; far less of Germany's capital is tied up in unproductive housing and the savings rate is correspondingly higher. (Let's face it, most Americans don't accumulate 50% of the cost of a house in savings over their lifetimes - unless forced to do so in a company pension scheme).
To find out how to profit from Germany's promise, read on... Read More...
- ECB Holds Steady in Fight Against Inflation, Despite Contracting Economy By Jennifer YousfiManaging Editor Despite economic contraction in the second quarter, the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday (Thursday) maintained its hawkish stance on inflation. Led by President Jean-Claude Trichet, the ECB’s monetary policy committee voted to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%. “Upside risks to price stability prevail,” Trichet said at a press conference in […] Read More...
- ECB Holds Rates Steady, but Growth Concerns are Beginning to Supplant Fears About Inflation By Jason Simpkins Associate Editor After boosting its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on July 3, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be forced to reverse course and cut rates sooner than it planned, as slow growth is beginning to trump concerns about inflation. The ECB left its key rate unchanged at 4.25% […] Read More...
- ECB Stands Firm Against Inflation By Jennifer YousfiManaging Editor After voting to hold rates steady at its monthly meeting yesterday (Thursday), European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean-Claude Trichet said a rate hike in July is "possible." Inflation in the Eurozone is running at a 16-year high. And on Wednesday, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) boosted its inflation […] Read More...
- ECB Still Will Boost Rates in September From Staff Reports The European Central Bank indicated it may still raise interest rates in September and announced another three month loan – this one $54 billion – to ease lending between commercial banks during the ongoing credit crunch, Bloomberg News reported. The ECB has injected emergency funds into the global financial system over the […] Read More...
- ECB Bails Out Banks; Dow and Other Global Stock Indexes Plummet By Jason Simpkins The credit mess that started as a slowdown in the U.S. housing industry, and then spread to the sub-prime mortgage market, morphed into a full-blown global credit crisis yesterday (Thursday), forcing the European Central Bank into action. Yesterday’s developments were no surprise to us, for we’ve been saying for months that the […] Read More...