Equity securities
How Capital Waves Are Creating the Biggest Profit Opportunities in Today's Markets
Back when oil was trading at a record high of $145 a barrel – and was generally expected to go higher – I concluded that the forces at play were speculative, not fundamental – driven by new institutional money looking to diversify away from too many concentrated equity bets. I argued these forces were temporary, and not entrenched, meaning that oil prices were actually headed for a fall.
The "forces" I was referring to are called "capital waves." Capital waves create some of the biggest trading opportunities in the markets today. Investors who are able to spot capital waves and identify their likely impact have a huge advantage over those who don't.
With oil, for instance, pundits were calling for new highs of $200, $250, $300 and even $500 a barrel. But behind the curtain, there was a major capital wave at play: I knew that oil was being pumped out of the ground like mad, and that shipping rates were exploding because oil was being stored in offshore, idled tankers. I knew that as little as $20 billion had been "re-allocated" out of the equity markets and into this new-asset-class investment for pension fund accounts.
As a speculative frenzy seemed to be enveloping the oil market, I called for oil prices to plummet – to more than a few looks of incredulity or outright guffaws.
When the secondary capital waves took hold, the speculative advance in oil prices first stalled – and then oil prices plunged as capital exited in another wave.
Don't feel bad if you missed this opportunity. That's the important thing to remember about capital waves – they're out there if you know where to look and how to interpret them. In fact, as good as this oil play was, I see even better opportunities ahead.
Buffett Bets on Bright U.S. Economic Future With Burlington Acquisition
Warren Buffett believes in the United States' economic future, and yesterday (Tuesday) he put his money where his mouth is.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) acquired railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. (NYSE: BNI) in a deal valued at $44 billion, the largest in Berkshire's history.
Berkshire, which already owns 22.6% of the company, will pay $100 per share in cash and stock for the remainder of Burlington's business. The offer values Burlington stock at a 31.5% premium to its Monday close. The deal, expected to close in the first quarter of next year, includes $10 billion in Burlington debt.





