fomc meeting today
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FOMC Meeting Message: Don't Blame Us for Sluggish Economy
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded today (Wednesday) with one clear message to Washington: Thanks for the lousy economy.
Central bank members cited only "moderate" expansion in economic activity and a slow improvement in the stubbornly high unemployment level.
Acknowledging the economy is moving at an unhurried pace, the FOMC members pointed an accusing finger at Capitol Hill.
"Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth," the statement read. That remark was in direct reference to a deadlocked Congress, sequestration and its far-reaching impact.
A spate of fresh economic reports back that sentiment:
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FOMC Meeting Minutes Signal These Investment Moves to Make Now
It's clear from the leaked Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes that the Fed isn't taking away the punchbowl quite yet - but investors can take steps now to be prepared for an eventual sign that quantitative easing will end.
The FOMC meeting minutes show the central bank remains divided on when to end QE and raise interest rates.
The Fed's current policy of buying $45 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities monthly will remain in place at least through midyear. Near-zero interest rates also look safe until 2015.
The Fed has held short-term rates at historic lows since 2008, with a goal of juicing the anemic U.S. economy. The Fed minutes reiterated that Bernanke and company will keep rates super low until the unemployment rate dips below 6.5% or inflation rises above 2.5% a year.
The monthly March jobs report, released after the March 19-20 Fed meeting, showed a significant slowdown in job creation. While the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.6% from 7.7%, the rate decreased largely because a huge number of people stopped looking for work.
The glum employment data could even extend the Fed's 2015 date to raise interest rates.
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FOMC Meeting: The Fed's Latest Plan
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to keep interest rates at historic lows and to continue with its $85 billion in monthly bond-buying stimulus, despite a more optimistic labor outlook.
It was a near-unanimous 11-1 vote in favor of the decision, announced at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. Kansas City Fed President Esther George was the sole holdout.
The Fed said that while fresh information since the January FOMC meeting suggests "a return to moderate economic growth following a pause late last year, fiscal policy has become somewhat more restrictive."
In defense of its ongoing bond buying, the statement read, "To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month."
The aim remains the same: "to maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader conditions more accommodative."
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FOMC Meeting: Can Bernanke Control the Market Reaction?
Financial markets have sometimes been turbulent after the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement.
For example, when the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Aug. 9, 2011 to keep interest rates at a record low, the Dow plunged 205 points. Then before market close it turned around and closed 429.92 points, or 4%, higher.
According to former Fed governor Laurence Meyer, FOMC meeting statements on monetary policy are the second biggest market-moving events. FOMC meeting minutes releases are the first.
But the Fed is trying to change that.
In fact, the Fed will now issue its statement at 2 p.m., to give Chairman Ben Bernanke an opportunity to better control the message it sends to financial markets. Usually there are a couple hours that pass between the statement release and Bernanke's press conference.
"They probably did some research and said the market has periods of increased volatility right after the announcement," Robert Pavlik, chief market strategist at Banyan Partners, told the Associated Press. "Well, of course there's going to be. That's the way it works."
The Fed hopes the decreased time lapse will allow chief Bernanke to shed more light on Fed policy and prevent wild market swings based on speculation or concern."They are trying to be more open and work with the market to some degree. It's probably a good thing," said Pavlik. "You don't want to give away the store but to try to get their message across so that people can understand it in real time makes a lot of sense. Maybe, if they could put it in language that the average man can understand, instead of double-Fed-talk, it would probably make even more sense."
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One Reason the Fed Meeting Today Might Not End in QE3
Dismal economic reports for the United States have recently made the stock market rise - not the expected reaction.
That is due to traders anticipating that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) or a similar measure will be coming to stimulate the American economy.
Yet, despite unemployment rising in the United States and growth falling, no major economic stimulus programs along the lines of QE3 have yet been announced by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at any Fed meeting.
The timing of QE2 explains why.
QE2 was a program where the Federal Reserve inflated its balance sheet to purchase about $700 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to finance the federal budget deficit. This unprecedented act was required as few other investors, either foreign or domestic, were buying U.S. Treasury bonds at the prevailing interest rates.
Without this action, the low interest rate environment promised by Bernanke until at least 2014 and imperative for the recovery of the United States economy, particularly the real estate sector, would have been untenable.
The Federal Reserve as a result became the "buyer of last resort" for U.S. Treasury bonds.
QE2 was announced by Bernanke at the Jackson Hole economic policy summit in August 2010. However, the Fed's bond buying did not start until after the mid-term elections in November 2010. QE2 ended in June 2011.
That is why QE3 has neither been announced nor initiated.
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Today's FOMC Meeting Too Early for Action
There is little doubt that the struggling U.S. economy could use some goosing, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a position to deliver a good boost.
But, a move isn't likely at the conclusion of today's (Wednesday) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
While a fresh spate of data suggests new steps from the central bank are warranted, many economists warn that the economy doesn't need immediate action - especially since the prior moves from the Fed haven't been very effective.
Growth has clearly slowed and unemployment remains elevated, but the sluggish pace of the U.S. economy may not be slow enough to compel the Fed to make an impactful move today, and any Fed decisions will be pushed to later in the year.
Today's FOMC Meeting: Not Ready for QE3
The U.S. Commerce Department last week reported that the U.S. economy grew at a paltry 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2% in the first. Plus, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims ticked up in the latest week while the unemployment level remains at a sickly 8.2%.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke maintains that his team is prepared to take further action if unemployment stays high, but he remains vague on what action might be taken.
With the reeling recession in Europe and a slowdown in stalwart China, global growth has been severely dented and is weighing on the U.S. economy. Those factors increase the odds of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but the Fed may not pull the trigger Wednesday.
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The Power of Today's FOMC Meeting
Get ready for more volatility this week as the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting kicks off today (Tuesday) and investors wait for a sign of more quantitative easing, or QE3.
The Federal Reserve announces what will happen with interest rates eight times a year at FOMC meetings. FOMC meetings are scheduled well in advance and receive a great deal of attention from the media and markets, but it wasn't always this way. It was not until 1994 that the Federal Reserve started publicizing the actions of the FOMC.
Now the FOMC announcements have become trading opportunities.
In fact, under Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve has become the most influential market maker in history.
Bob McTeer, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, wrote in Forbes that investors are so glued to Fed actions they even react when minutes are released from an FOMC meeting - even when the meeting's outcome was already known.
"It used to be "buy on the rumor, sell on the news' or vice versa. Now it seems to be "sell on the news and sell again on the same news in slightly greater detail,'" wrote McTeer.
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FOMC Meeting Minutes: Will We Ever See QE3?
Investors were anxiously listening today (Wednesday) to see if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes gave any hints the Fed may engage in a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to bolster the ailing U.S. economy.
But no such clues were shared.
Last month the Federal Reserve decided to extend Operation Twist, a bond maturity extension program. But many investors wanted a third round of asset buying, or QE3, instead of more twisting.
Immediately following details of the June FOMC meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been choppy all day, was little changed. Then came the negative reaction and all three major indexes ticked lower, and the VIX, the "fear index," edged higher. The Dow fell as much as 90.14 points, or 0.7%, to 12,562.98 in afternoon trading.
Though QE3 is not completely out of the question, things need to deteriorate further for the Fed to even consider more bond purchasing as a means of stoking the economy, according to the FOMC meeting minutes.
Just four Fed officials referred to more quantitative easing in their individual forecasts, with two in favor and two considering another round.
Had that FOMC meeting been held today, maybe more officials would have supported a heavier stimulus measure. Since that meeting, fresh data have shown manufacturing is weak and unemployment levels are still elevated - and look to move higher.
In addition, economists have drastically reduced second-quarter growth estimates amid the weaker-than-expected numbers.
This has left scores scratching their heads asking how much worse things need to get before the Fed makes a move.
The minutes also show that several Fed officials want to create "new tools" to ease financial conditions. With little left in their cache to give the economy a much needed boost, "new tools" are warranted, but scarce at best.
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Today's FOMC Meeting: Here's What the Fed Could Do
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the nation after today's FOMC meeting, and there's not much left in his bag of tricks to stimulate the U.S. economy and avoid the recession many are predicting for 2013.
After more than three years of trying to rouse the economy, hiring remains weak, unemployment is still elevated, and economic growth has ebbed.
As the Fed concludes its two-day policy meeting today, it needs to act sooner rather than later - and may be ready to do so.
"I think Fed officials will send a pretty decisive signal that they are prepared to provide more support to boost economic growth and lower unemployment," Brian Bethune, economics professor at Gordon College in Massachusetts, told the Associated Press.
Here is a trio of scenarios Team Bernanke could present.
What Could Happen at Today's FOMC Meeting
#1: The Fed Continues Operation Twist
There's a good chance the Fed will decide to continue its previous monetary stimulus method, "Operation Twist."
Under this strategy, the Fed traded $400 billion in short-term bonds for those with longer maturities. The goal of the twist is to drive down long-term interest rates.
This creates an environment that makes it cheaper for businesses to obtain loans and for consumers to get a hold of mortgages and other forms of credit.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s (NYSE: GS) chief economist Jan Hatzius said in an e-mail to clients he expects the Fed to start a new asset purchase program.
"A decision not to ease is tantamount to a tightening. At this point we'd be quite surprised if we saw no easing," said Hatzius.
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