FOMC Meeting
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What the Fed Will Do at Today's FOMC Meeting
Optimism swept over investors following the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but don't expect the same when this month's two-day Fed meeting wraps up tomorrow (Wednesday).
In fact, don't expect much of anything. No surprises and nothing new are expected.
It's widely agreed that the historic low interest rates won't be raised anytime soon, and there will be no grand announcements of any further game-changing stimulus programs like the Sept. 13 QE3 statement.
No new policy measures are forecast either, as focus has shifted to the Nov. 6 presidential election. Minutes from the meeting will be released Nov. 15, after ballots are cast.
This month's meeting will be more ho-hum and about discussions not delivery.
"The Fed has entered a holding pattern while watching for signs of a substantial improvement in the labor market," Ellen Zentner, senior U.S. economist for Nomura Securities told MarketWatch.
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One Reason the Fed Meeting Today Might Not End in QE3
Dismal economic reports for the United States have recently made the stock market rise - not the expected reaction.
That is due to traders anticipating that a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) or a similar measure will be coming to stimulate the American economy.
Yet, despite unemployment rising in the United States and growth falling, no major economic stimulus programs along the lines of QE3 have yet been announced by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at any Fed meeting.
The timing of QE2 explains why.
QE2 was a program where the Federal Reserve inflated its balance sheet to purchase about $700 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to finance the federal budget deficit. This unprecedented act was required as few other investors, either foreign or domestic, were buying U.S. Treasury bonds at the prevailing interest rates.
Without this action, the low interest rate environment promised by Bernanke until at least 2014 and imperative for the recovery of the United States economy, particularly the real estate sector, would have been untenable.
The Federal Reserve as a result became the "buyer of last resort" for U.S. Treasury bonds.
QE2 was announced by Bernanke at the Jackson Hole economic policy summit in August 2010. However, the Fed's bond buying did not start until after the mid-term elections in November 2010. QE2 ended in June 2011.
That is why QE3 has neither been announced nor initiated.
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Why the Jackson Hole Fed Meeting Will Look Familiar
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will take the podium this Friday at the economic policy summit in Jackson Hole, WY, as traders hang on every word hoping he'll deliver a clear signal of central bank action in 2012.
They have good reason to think the Jackson Hole Fed meeting can move markets. It was at this summit two years ago in August 2010 that Bernanke announced an economic stimulus program that came to be known as Quantitative Easing 2.
QE2 consisted of the Federal Reserve inflating its balance sheet to purchase $700 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds from November 2010 to June 2011. This was necessitated as no investors, either foreign or domestic, could be found to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds at such low interest rates.
Now, two years later, the U.S. economy has economic growth falling with unemployment rising. Consumer confidence is at record low levels. Lending institutions are processing millions of properties through various stages of foreclosure. Businesses are sitting on record levels of cash, preparing for the worst, rather than investing in job-creating plants, equipment and machinery.
Oil prices are also rising, which will have a negative impact on the U.S. economy. The more money sent overseas to pay for imported oil, the less there is to buy the goods and services that raise the level of employment in the United States.
This was how things were in 2010. Actually, things seem worse now since Standard & Poor's in August 2011 downgraded the credit rating of the United States.
In an attempt to change this gloomy outlook, the Federal Reserve is letting it be known that it will act again in a major way, like in did in August 2010.
But, like that year, no new policies will officially start until after Election 2012.
The Federal Reserve cannot be seen as doing anything that might influence voting when Americans go to the polls the first Tuesday in November. That is the way it was in 2010, and that is the way it will be this year.
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Today's FOMC Meeting: We Could Wait Four More Months for Action
The U.S. Federal Reserve continued its wait-and-see stance today (Wednesday) and remained in idle mode when it said and did little at the conclusion of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
The central bank decided to leave rates unchanged, reiterated it would leave rates low through at least 2014 (not extending them to 2015 as expected) and did not announce a third round of quantitative easing.
The Fed chiefs did, however, voice that should conditions warrant, they are ready to step in and take aggressive steps to bolster the U.S. economy.
PIMCO's leader Bill Gross told CNBC that "a changing in policy landscape can be expected in a month or so."
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Today's FOMC Meeting Too Early for Action
There is little doubt that the struggling U.S. economy could use some goosing, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is in a position to deliver a good boost.
But, a move isn't likely at the conclusion of today's (Wednesday) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
While a fresh spate of data suggests new steps from the central bank are warranted, many economists warn that the economy doesn't need immediate action - especially since the prior moves from the Fed haven't been very effective.
Growth has clearly slowed and unemployment remains elevated, but the sluggish pace of the U.S. economy may not be slow enough to compel the Fed to make an impactful move today, and any Fed decisions will be pushed to later in the year.
Today's FOMC Meeting: Not Ready for QE3
The U.S. Commerce Department last week reported that the U.S. economy grew at a paltry 1.5% annual rate in the second quarter, down from 2% in the first. Plus, the Labor Department reported initial jobless claims ticked up in the latest week while the unemployment level remains at a sickly 8.2%.
Fed chief Ben Bernanke maintains that his team is prepared to take further action if unemployment stays high, but he remains vague on what action might be taken.
With the reeling recession in Europe and a slowdown in stalwart China, global growth has been severely dented and is weighing on the U.S. economy. Those factors increase the odds of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3), but the Fed may not pull the trigger Wednesday.
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The Power of Today's FOMC Meeting
Get ready for more volatility this week as the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting kicks off today (Tuesday) and investors wait for a sign of more quantitative easing, or QE3.
The Federal Reserve announces what will happen with interest rates eight times a year at FOMC meetings. FOMC meetings are scheduled well in advance and receive a great deal of attention from the media and markets, but it wasn't always this way. It was not until 1994 that the Federal Reserve started publicizing the actions of the FOMC.
Now the FOMC announcements have become trading opportunities.
In fact, under Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve has become the most influential market maker in history.
Bob McTeer, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, wrote in Forbes that investors are so glued to Fed actions they even react when minutes are released from an FOMC meeting - even when the meeting's outcome was already known.
"It used to be "buy on the rumor, sell on the news' or vice versa. Now it seems to be "sell on the news and sell again on the same news in slightly greater detail,'" wrote McTeer.
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FOMC Meeting Minutes: Will We Ever See QE3?
Investors were anxiously listening today (Wednesday) to see if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes gave any hints the Fed may engage in a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) to bolster the ailing U.S. economy.
But no such clues were shared.
Last month the Federal Reserve decided to extend Operation Twist, a bond maturity extension program. But many investors wanted a third round of asset buying, or QE3, instead of more twisting.
Immediately following details of the June FOMC meeting, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had been choppy all day, was little changed. Then came the negative reaction and all three major indexes ticked lower, and the VIX, the "fear index," edged higher. The Dow fell as much as 90.14 points, or 0.7%, to 12,562.98 in afternoon trading.
Though QE3 is not completely out of the question, things need to deteriorate further for the Fed to even consider more bond purchasing as a means of stoking the economy, according to the FOMC meeting minutes.
Just four Fed officials referred to more quantitative easing in their individual forecasts, with two in favor and two considering another round.
Had that FOMC meeting been held today, maybe more officials would have supported a heavier stimulus measure. Since that meeting, fresh data have shown manufacturing is weak and unemployment levels are still elevated - and look to move higher.
In addition, economists have drastically reduced second-quarter growth estimates amid the weaker-than-expected numbers.
This has left scores scratching their heads asking how much worse things need to get before the Fed makes a move.
The minutes also show that several Fed officials want to create "new tools" to ease financial conditions. With little left in their cache to give the economy a much needed boost, "new tools" are warranted, but scarce at best.
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Is the Fed's Operation Twist Just the Start of More Stimulus?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day policy meeting Wednesday announcing an extension of Operation Twist, the policy of swapping short-term Treasury securities in its reserve for bonds with a longer maturity.
The program, set to expire June 30, will now continue until year's end. During the next few months the Fed plans to buy some $267 billion worth of bonds.
In a press conference after the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated the Fed sees weaker times ahead. Its outlook has changed, and not for the better.
It was not what investors wanted or needed to hear.
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Today's FOMC Meeting: Fed Votes Operation Twist to Continue
Today's FOMC meeting - which started Tuesday - ended in a widely expected manner.
The Fed announced it will extend Operation Twist, which was set to expire at month's end, until the end of 2012, in an effort to keep interest rates low.
The Fed will expand Operation Twist, which replaces short-term bonds with longer-term debt, by $267 billion.
In a statement, the FOMC said the prolongation of Operation Twist "should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates and help make broader financial conditions more accommodative."
The Fed pointed to the U.S. economy's poor recovery as reason for more "twist."
"Growth in employment has slowed in recent months and the unemployment rate remains elevated," the Fed reported. "Household spending appears to be rising at a slower pace than earlier in the year."
The lack of more intense stimulus, namely a third round of quantitative easing, sent the Dow Jones, which had been flat all day, plummeting some 50 points in just seconds. All three major indexes treaded lower following the report. Gold, hoping for QE3, sold off some $25 an ounce.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.67% just after 1 p.m. in New York from 1.62% late yesterday.
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FOMC Meeting: Will Ben Print?
Most investors expect Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to announce more stimulus when the FOMC meeting concludes tomorrow (Wednesday).
But what if he doesn't?
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald joined Fox Business' "Varney & Co." Tuesday to discuss this outcome with host Stuart Varney.
"Keith, what happens if Ben doesn't print any money, makes no such announcement, and the Germans don't agree to let Europe print any money," asked Varney. "What happens?"
To hear what Keith said investors can expect from the Fed, and the market reaction, watch this video.
Keith also analyzed the Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) announcement that it will release a tablet to compete with the Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPad.