Gold
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There's Reason to be Pessimistic about the U.S. Economy, but Never Panic
Pessimism increased again among investors last week, as a slew of economic data stoked fears of a double-dip recession.
Indeed, housing and unemployment continue to weigh on the U.S. economy. But don't panic. Remember that the prospects for a full economic recovery are much better outside the United States, and that it's often good to be greedy when others are fearful.
To find out more about the precarious state of the U.S. economy read on...
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Three Ways to Brace for a Double-Dip Recession: Recession-Proof Stocks
Today (Friday) we conclude our series on bracing for a double-dip recession.
In Part I of this investment series, "Three Ways to Brace for a Double-Dip Recession: Going for the Gold," we discussed ways investors could safeguard against the imminent decline of the U.S. dollar by buying gold.
In Part II, "Three Ways to Brace for a Double-Dip Recession: Going Global," we explored potential investments in foreign countries that have more stable economies and better growth prospects.
And today, we're going to conclude by looking at "recession-proof" stocks right here in the United States.
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Three Ways to Brace for a Double-Dip Recession: Going Global
The last time the U.S. economy suffered through a double-dip recession, this country was struggling to overcome the fallout from an Arab oil embargo, Vietnam War-era deficits, and an inflationary spiral that just wouldn't let go.
That 1981-82 double-dip downturn - the result of an economic "shock treatment" aimed at curing those ills - consisted of two recessions that were separated by a single quarter of growth.
The current backdrop is very different from the one that was in place back then, but the threat of a double-dip recession is no less real.
The world's No. 1 economy lost 8.4 million jobs during the recession that got its start in December 2007, making it the worst national downturn since the Great Depression and the biggest loss of employment since the end of World War II.
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Three Ways to Brace for a Double-Dip Recession: Going for the Gold
The last time the U.S. economy suffered through a double-dip recession, this country was struggling to overcome the fallout from an Arab oil embargo, Vietnam War-era deficits, and an inflationary spiral that just wouldn't let go.
That 1981-82 double-dip downturn - the result of an economic "shock treatment" aimed at curing those ills - consisted of two recessions that were separated by a single quarter of growth.
The current backdrop is very different from the one that was in place back then, but the threat of a double-dip recession is no less real. Indeed, with each passing week, and with every new economic report that comes out, the possibility that the U.S. economy will backslide into a double-dip recession seems to become more of a probability - or even a likelihood.
"For me a 'double-dip' is another recession before we've healed from this recession [and] the probability of that kind of double-dip is more than 50%," Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University and co-developer of Standard and Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, told Reuters. "I actually expect it."
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When This Indicator Says to 'Buy Gold,' It's Never Wrong
When I recently predicted that the long-term trends were in place to send gold to $5,000 an ounce, I was stunned by all the attention that my forecast received.
Granted, a move of that magnitude represents a dizzying long-term profit opportunity. But that's just it - it's a long-term profit opportunity.
I've uncovered some profit plays that offer equally hefty gains - but in the short term.
One in particular stands out - a profit opportunity that relates to a signal that I refer to as the "Gold Spike Indicator," or GSI. Because of the nature of the indicator itself, this profit opportunity is available only four times a year.
And the next "window" of opportunity is just weeks away.
To find out all about this profit "window," please read on... -
Think Gold Prices Have Peaked? Think Again
If you think gold prices have peaked, think again. Gold may have fallen from its June 18 record high of $1258.30 an ounce, but the yellow metal is in for the long haul.
In fact, Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS) has increased its long-range forecast for gold, arguing in a new report that prices should remain near current levels for at least the next four years.
CS analysts' 2014 target is now $1,300 and ounce, compared to their previous forecast of $1,120. That may not seem like a very brave forecast since gold is already trading at nearly $1,200 an ounce. But it has profound implications for gold miners, because mining stocks are priced based on expectations of future earnings. Removing the expectation that gold futures prices could slide way back removes an impediment to shares going higher.
The rationale for the change: Credit Suisse believes there is an 80% chance of a renewed quantitative easing - or money printing - due either to a full-blown sovereign debt crisis or a new recession. This enthusiastic and inflationary activity would rev up the safe haven buying that has pushed up gold prices over the past few years. The feeling is that companies and government officials may cheat and lie, but gold is as steady as a rock as an irrefutable, trusted source of value.
