Greek Debt Crisis
Heavy Betting in the Middle of Mayhem
There's going to be a lot of very heavy betting over the next few days, weeks, and months on what's going up, what's going down, and what's going around:
- How far will Facebook IPO price go?
- How far DOWN from here will JPMorgan go, with the FBI and DOJ now sniffing around?
- How far AROUND the globe will the fallout be if Greece loses its game of chicken?
If you don't have the stomach for what's going to feel like an out-of-control rollercoaster ride, sideline yourself.
If, on the other hand, you like a lot of action, welcome to Mayhem – the preamble month to what will likely be the Summer of Some Discontent.
That is, unless you like rapid-fire trading.
Which, by the way, is not just fun, but can be very, very profitable. I'm in, and so are the subscribers to my Capital Wave Forecast. We're gearing up for some heavy betting in the weeks and months ahead.
So, what's front and center today? You know. The big three headlines: Facebook, JPMorgan Chase, and Greece. Are you sick of hearing about them? I'm not. I like trading the headlines.
Here's my "heads-up" on the big three headlines.
As Greek Debt Default Nears, Investors Need to Take Cover
At this point a Greek debt default is virtually unavoidable, and it could happen in a matter of weeks.
The ensuing chain reaction will upend markets around the world and will almost surely lead to more defaults among the European Union's (EU) other debt-plagued nations, collectively known as the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain).
The bond markets have already passed sentence, with the yield on two-year Greek bonds spiking to an astronomical 76% yesterday (Tuesday). Yields on 10-year Greek bonds rose to 24%.
By comparison, the 10-year bond yields of another PIIGS nation, Italy, rose to 5.74%. Meanwhile, bond yields for the EU's strongest economy, Germany, have dropped below 2%.
The credit default swap (CDS) markets, where investors can insure their bond purchases against default, agree with the bond markets' verdict. As of Monday it cost $5.8 million and $100,000 annually to insure $10 million worth of Greek debt for five years, which means the CDS market now considers default a 98% probability.
Most European stock markets have been hammered over the past several weeks, with some dropping as much as 25%.
"Default is inevitable," said Money Morning Global Investment Strategist Martin Hutchinson. "Greeks are paid about twice as much as they should be, and that gap can't be solved by austerity."
How Soon is Now
In recent weeks Germany has shown more reluctance to dig deeper into its own pockets to bail out Greece and the other PIIGS. At the same time, Greece has struggled to implement the austerity measures that are required if it is to continue receiving aid from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Greece's budget deficit has increased 22% this year, while its economy is projected to shrink more than 5%.
Every new development appears to bring Greece closer to the brink of default – and some see that happening in the very near future.
"My guess is there will be a Greek debt default by the end of this fiscal quarter – yeah, that means very soon," said Money Morning Capital Waves Strategist Shah Gilani.
European Banks Wait in Fear Over Consequences of Unresolved Greek Debt Crisis
Fresh signs of a possible default in Greece have revived a contentious debate between politicians and major banks in the European Union over what to do about the Greek debt crisis.
Yesterday (Wednesday) Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou had no success convincing opposition party leaders to support new austerity measures needed to comply with bailout terms set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other European Union countries.
Without those measures, Greece will not receive the bailout money it needs to avert default. Default would destroy the country's credit for a decade, maybe longer.
Resurgent Greek Debt Crisis Stokes Concern, Causes S&P to Lower Rating
Concern that the Greek debt crisis is far from resolved led Standard & Poor's to lower that troubled country's debt rating even deeper into junk territory yesterday (Monday).
The S&P cut Greece to B from BB- with a warning it could downgrade further.
"In our view, there is increased risk that Greece will take steps to restructure the terms of its commercial debt, including its previously-issued government bonds," S&P said in a statement.
A restructuring of the Greek debt could result in principal reductions of 50% or more, with the loss borne by the bondholders.
One year after a bailout intended to help the Greek government address its crushing debt – it owes more than 150% of its gross domestic product (GDP) – European Union (EU) leaders are worried Greece is not doing enough to fix its debt problems.
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