Friday was the 25th anniversary of Black Monday. On October 19, 1987 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508 points, or a mind-numbing 22.6%.
How bad was it?...
Let's put it this way, if it happened today the Dow would drop 2,965 points on the session to finish at roughly 10,158. You can imagine the depression.
Now you know why they call it "Black Monday," even though it occurred in a sea of red.
In absolute or percentage terms it was the largest one-day drop ever-- beating the 13.6% drop on the worst day of the 1929 crash.
But then again, the 1929 crash was caused only by human beings. The 1987 event, on the other hand, was largely computer-driven. Of such is progress made!
For British observers like me, Black Monday was memorable as being the first business day after the Great Storm, the first hurricane to hit the British Isles since 1703.
The relief at not having lost a third of the British Navy, which happened on the previous occasion, made Black Monday seem a minor hiccup. I actually bought some shares as the U.S. markets opened, and was delighted to see that they closed at a higher price than I paid!
There was also the satisfaction of hearing about a rather smug ex-colleague, who had received a large payout from the bank where we had worked (no such payout came my way, alas) and had invested it and margined 50% in the U.S. market.
Alas, blessed by Fortune though he was, he was awakened at 1:30 am London time by a margin call for $700,000. I always felt it was something of a fitting recompense for greed and creepiness to authority.
How the Market CrashedOf course, those whose trading lives don't extend back to 1987 doubtless feel that it can't happen again.
Well, I have news for you....
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Stock Market Today: These Earnings Expose a Huge Concern for 2013
The stock market today opened lower as yet another American corporation, Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), disappointed investors with its earnings call.
Here's the market roundup, along with one stock that is soaring today because analysts say there is a "50% chance" it could be acquired.
- Caterpillar lowers earnings outlook for second time this year- The world's largest construction maker reported third-quarter earnings that beat expectations but cut its 2012 sales and earnings forecasts. CAT joins a growing list of American firms including McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG), and General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) that have either missed expectations or lowered their outlook this earnings season. Caterpillar reported third-quarter net income of $1.7 billion, or $2.54 per share, compared with $1.14 billion, or $1.71 per share a year ago. Adjusting for one-time items CAT earned a profit of $2.26 per share, ahead of analysts' estimate of $2.22. The troubling facts for CAT include its order backlog fell 18% from the second quarter of this year and the Peoria, IL-based company now expects to generate much lower sales for the remainder of this year and 2013.
While earnings have taken their toll on corporate giants, this stock is up almost 30% today on hopes of a buyout:
Stock Market Today: Earnings Crush Giants as This Stock Gains 30%
The stock market today opened well in the red after earnings from industry leaders disappointed investors on the 25th anniversary of Black Friday.
Here's today's roundup and one stock that has gained over 30% this week.
- General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE), Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) fall short of estimates- Two American titans, software leader Microsoft and diversified conglomerate General Electric, reported their latest earnings. GE saw its third-quarter profit rise 8.3% to $3.49 billion, or 33 cents per share, from $3.22 billion, or 22 cents per share a year earlier. Yet the company's revenue fell short of expectations and its outlook for next year did not inspire much confidence. Microsoft saw its fiscal first-quarter earnings drop 22% from a year ago and missed analysts' forecasts for earnings and revenue. GE and Microsoft are struggling with the same obstacles that have scared investors and hurt other businesses: the global economic slowdown and uncertainty regarding the fiscal cliff. "We're not assuming that Europe gets any better," GE's Chief Executive Officer, Jeff Immelt, told investors on a conference call. "We're looking at '13 being kind of like '12, with the big variable being the fiscal cliff." GE stock is down 2.5% in early trading and MSFT stock is down almost 3%.
- Restaurant stocks hurt by drought- McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) and Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (NYSE: CMG) both reported weak third-quarter earnings, an indication they are still feeling the effects of this summer's epic drought. Same-store sales were the driving negative factor for both restaurants. McDonald's posted global same-store sales growth of 1.9%, the first time that number has been below 2% since 2003. Chipotle's comparable sales rose 4.8% in the quarter, its lowest growth in almost three years. "I think that competition has certainly gotten more aggressive the past several quarters," Morningstar analyst R.J. Hottovy told Reuters. "Between commodity costs coming in and companies being able to price more aggressively, but also consumers still being very fixated on value, it's led to a very cutthroat restaurant environment." Chipotle has seen its stock plunge to under $250 from above $400 earlier this summer after two consecutive dismal earnings reports. "They're coming up against a little bit of a ceiling," Peter Saleh, a New York-based analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, told Bloomberg. "They need to do something more either on advertising or new product news to draw more customers into their stores." MCD stock is down 3.4% today and CMG stock is down over 14% as of noon.
QE Infinity Won't Work, But Here's What Will
Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher recently offered a stunning assessment about our policymaking central bankers down in Washington.
They're winging it.
In a talk before a Harvard Club audience, Fisher presented a candid assessment about all the levers the Fed has been pulling in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. And that includes the recently announced QE3.
"Nobody really knows what will work to get the economy back on course. And nobody-in fact, no central bank anywhere on the planet-has the experience of successfully navigating a return home from the place in which we now find ourselves. No central bank-not, at least, the Federal Reserve-has ever been on this cruise before."
I don't know about you, but the idea that four years and trillions of dollars into this quantitative easing voyage we're still sailing without a compass isn't just appalling.
Yet this ship of fools sails on.
The problem is, Fisher is right: QE3 won't work. QE1 and QE2 didn't fix this mess. Nor will QE4, QE5, onwards to infinity.
What's more, there's a cottage industry of pundits and consultants who'll agree.
Trouble is, just like Fisher and his colleagues at the Fed, none of them can tell you why it won't work.
That's what we're going to do here today.
We'll start by giving you the lowdown on how this nation's central bankers view "Quantitative Easing." Then we'll show you how the Fed thinks QE is supposed to work.
Finally, we'll punch some (actually, many) holes in in the Fed's hull by discussing why it's not working.
We'll even demonstrate what could still be done to fix this wretched mess.
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Stock Market Today: This Stock's Dip Could Be Promising
The stock market today opened flat as positive housing data was weighed down by somewhat mixed earnings.
Here's our market roundup and one stock that's soaring today.
- Housing starts reach four-year high- The housing market continues to show signs of recovery as the rate of home building in September grew to levels not seen since July 2008. Housing starts rose to an annual pace of 872,000 homes, up 15% from August. Builders also filed for permits at an annual rate of 894,000 homes, up 11.6% from last month and 45.1% year-over-year. Demand for housing will continue to be helped by the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates near historic levels and the implementation of QE3. Housing prices have rebounded from their nadirs in part because foreclosures are at five-year lows and because the number of U.S. households grew 2% in 2011, its largest rise in 10 years. "There is going to be a continued housing recovery over the next few years," said Larry Seay, chief financial officer at Meritage Homes Corp. (NYSE: MTH) in Scottsdale, AZ, at an investor conference. "Pent-up demand that has built up from people deferring household formation is going to help buoy the recovery. High affordability not only with house prices being very low, but also interest rates being as low as they've been in decades, and all that translating into an improved buyer confidence."
- Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC) delivers a mixed bag- Charlotte, NC-based Bank of America barley managed to squeeze out a profit for the third quarter after $1.6 billion in litigation charges ate away at its earnings. The financial giant earned $340 million - a little more than zero cents per share. That was better than analysts' average estimate of a loss of 7 cents per share, but well below last year's third-quarter profit of $6.2 billion, or 56 cents per share. Revenue also fell, slumping to $20.4 billion from $28.5 billion a year ago, missing expectations. A day after Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit abruptly resigned, Bank of America's CEO Brian Moynihan sounded confident about his bank's future. "We are doing more business with our customers and clients, deposits are up, mortgage originations are up," he said. "Our strategy is taking hold even as we work through a challenging economy and continue to clean up legacy issues." BAC stock is up 0.6% in early trading.
Stock Market Today: It's Easy to Beat Earnings Estimates When You Aim Low
The stock market today opened higher as earnings continue to be "not as bad as expected" and industrial production shows signs of stabilizing.
Here's our market roundup for investors:
- Earnings continue to beat estimates- The third quarter was supposed to be a dismal earnings season but lowered expectations are giving companies a boost. Johnson and Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) reported better-than-expected profits this morning and each offered investors something else to cheer about. JNJ's third-quarter profits fell 7% from last year but its adjusted EPS of $1.25 beat Wall Street's estimates of $1.21. Goldman had a third-quarter profit of $1.51 billion, compared with a year-earlier loss of $393 million and easily beat both earnings and revenue forecasts. Besides the strong earnings, Goldman announced that it would increase its quarterly dividend to 50 cents from 46 cents and JNJ raised its 2012 earnings forecast. JNJ stock is up 1.4% in early trading and GS stock is up 1.0%.
"Investors are cycling back into risk as earnings as well as economic numbers in the U.S. are somewhat better than expected," Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, NJ-based fund manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. told Bloomberg News in a telephone interview. "Economic growth will continue to be sluggish even with the flickers of hope that we've seen this morning."
Stock Market Today: Banks Net Record Profits, But Stocks Slip
The stock market today is trying to end what has been a negative week on a positive note.
Markets have traded down all week on global economic concerns and today are being held back by JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) even though the two financial giants posted record earnings.
Here's what's bringing those stocks down and why consumer sentiment is at a five-year high:
- Banks slide amid record earnings- JPMorgan and Wells Fargo each reported record quarterly profits but neither stock is surging on the results. Wells reported third-quarter net income of $4.94 billion, or 88 cents per share, up from $4.06 billion, or 72 cents a year ago and JPMorgan announced third-quarter earnings of 5.71 billion, or $1.40 a share, up from $4.26 billion, or $1.02 a share a year earlier. The record results were spurred by homeowners taking advantage of lower interest rates in order to refinance their mortgages. "The one big positive is clearly mortgage origination revenues," Richard Staite, an analyst at Atlantic Equities LLP in London, told Bloomberg News in an interview before results were announced. "Rates will remain at this level or potentially drop further and ultimately that will drive a recovery in the housing market."
Stock Market Today: Is this 9% Gainer a Recession-Proof Winner?
The stock market today opened lower as investors enter the third-quarter earnings season feeling very pessimistic. Alcoa's report yesterday and Chevron's announcement today only intensified this sentiment, but there is one stock that is proving to be a winner.
- Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports a loss to start earnings season- Alcoa reported a net loss of $143 million, or 13 cents a share for the third quarter, a reversal of last year's third-quarter profits of $172 million, or 15 cents a share. Sales fell as well, dropping 9.2% to $5.83 billion from $6.42 billion. Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, was hurt by declining demand and aluminum prices that are 20% lower than a year ago. The company now expects aluminum demand will rise 6% this year, lower than the 7% forecast made in July. The silver lining for Alcoa is that the numbers weren't as bad as expected. Excluding environmental and legal charges the company posted a profit of 3 cents per share, ahead of Wall Street's estimate to break even. Even though sales fell they too beat projections. "The global economy is clearly slowing," Lloyd O'Carroll, a Richmond, Virginia-based analyst for Davenport & Co., told Bloomberg News yesterday. "That's what the IMF said today and so I think what Alcoa is doing is consistent with that." AA stock was down almost 4% as of noon.
- Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) announces 3Q results will stumble- Chevron said on Tuesday that it expects third-quarter earnings to be "substantially lower" than its second-quarter results. The San Ramon, CA-based company cited lower production and a lower price of oil for the decline in profits. For the months of July and August the average price of a barrel of oil in the U.S. was $95.44 compared to $103.91 in the April-June quarter. Last quarter the company earned $7.2 billion, or $3.66 per share and analysts expect net income of $6.2 billion, or $3.08 per share for the third quarter. Chevron, the second-largest U.S. energy company by market value, will release full third-quarter results on Nov. 2. CVX stock is down 3.5% as of noon.
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Stock Market Today: Jobs Are Good, But this Stock is Better
The stock market today opened higher after the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The Dow Jones was up 60 points, or 0.45%, and the S&P 500 was up 6.40 points, or 0.44% in early trading.
The jobs report seems to have jumpstarted markets today, but one stock has been hot all week and doesn't need manipulated reports to boost it higher.
Here's a breakdown of today's news and a stock you need to know about.
- Unemployment falls for right reasons this month- The Labor Department reported today that 114,000 jobs were added in September, in line with expectations. The surprising news is that unemployment declined three percentage points to 7.8%, marking the first time since January 2009, President Obama's first month in office, that unemployment is below 8%. Unlike last month where the rate ticked down due to more workers dropping out of the labor force, this month's decline was a result of more jobs added in prior months and a surge in part-time workers. The August and July reports were collectively revised upward a total of 86,000 jobs and around 582,000 workers accepted a part-time role. After the revisions 146,000 jobs were added on average over the last three months, significantly better than the second quarter average of 67,000. Both candidates will try to spin September's report and analyze the numbers to their advantage as October's jobs report comes out just days before the election. "The September jobs report will frame the economic debate and could prove critical to the election outcome," Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank AG (NSYE: DB), told The Wall Street Journal ahead of Friday's release.
- Earnings season about to kick off- Believe it or not next week starts the third quarter earnings season as Alcoa Inc. (NSYE: AA) announces its earnings after markets close on Tuesday. Investors have been waiting to see if a poor earnings season could reverse the rally we've had over the past few months. Analysts expect the majority of earnings to be weak after many companies have already lowered their outlooks.
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Stock Market Today: Looks Like Europe is Still a Huge Mess
The major headlines in the stock market today include: the ECB's about to release its balance sheet - which is quite scary, Spain is about to request a full-fledged bailout, and disappointing motor vehicle sales follow an unexpectedly good manufacturing report.
Here's a closer look.
- Europe is nowhere near fixed- Stocks opened higher Tuesday on hopes that Spain would request a bailout for the entire country and not just the banks. This drove the markets higher but stocks have since pared gains after digesting the release of the European Central Bank's balance sheet which showed $21 trillion in assets and $22 trillion in liabilities. Never mind that there are more liabilities than assets and no equity to speak of, the questions economists are asking is where is all this money, who is accountable for it and can we even trust these numbers to be accurate.
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