Wall Street
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Four Factors to Consider Before Determining Your Long-Term View on U.S. Stocks
Stocks rose worldwide over the past week -- ranging from +2% in U.S. big caps to +6% ingold -- as investors swelled with sudden courage in response to positive reports on Chinese economy and glimmers of hope that European governments can get their financial houses in order.
The week's results erased four weeks of losses, including the despairing session that ensued on June 7 after a disappointing report on U.S. employment. Meanwhile, the result of the past 35 trading days, or seven calendar weeks, are still largely negative, ranging from a loss of 5.5% for U.S. stocks and -8.5% for Europe. Only gold stocks have eluded the smoke monster, rising 7% in the span.
The variation in one-week and one-month results illustrate perfectly how investors are showing that they arehopeful but unconvincedthat recent strength in gross domestic product (GDP) growth and corporate income advances are sustainable, and therefore won't buy stocks heavily until prices are so cheap that they discount worst-case scenarios. In other words, they want a high risk premium before buying -- sort of like demanding a 72-month warranty before buying an expensive car.
To read about the four factors you should consider before investing click here.
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Moribund Sentiment Is Jeopardizing the U.S. Stock Market
The U.S. stock market is really at a critical juncture right now.
I'm all for being optimistic at the prospect of a super-oversold condition amid rampant pessimism. But bulls need to take charge of the controls of this sputtering plane. But now that they failed to yank the stick higher before the February lows, the bottom is really in danger of falling out.
Most corrosive for the major indexes' value at present are large-cap energy and bank stocks, which have fallen 7% as a group amid a hex from the BP PLC (NYSE ADR: BP) blowout and financial regulation clampdown.
You would think that a cut in oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico would provide a strong undertow for energy, at least, but investors have been acting like industrial demand will grind to a halt in coming months.
June historically has been the second worst month of the year, after September. But after suffering through the worst May since 1940, and bearish sentiment on overdrive, it's fair to expect opportunistic investors to dive in now and take advantage of bargains.
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Taipan Daily: Spoiling Wall Street's Surprise
Sometimes I don't know whether to excoriate the Wall Street/Washington axis for its constant efforts at obfuscation - or thank it for all the smoke and mirrors.
Yes, there is something deeply troubling about a culture so utterly dedicated to the manipulation of facts. But then again, these distortions introduce exactly the sort of information gaps that power the most lucrative trading opportunities.
For example, we have recently read that British Petroleum (BP) - mired armpit deep in a cesspool of oil of unknown size and depth, and fully aware that it will be sued continuously unto the next generation - is rewarding loyal investors with a billion-dollar dividend and spending something like $100 million on a public relations campaign to somehow obscure its culpability and rescue its reputation.
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The Tobin Tax: The Fix-It Plan Wall Street Hates … But Can't Seem to Kill
German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently came out in favor of a "Tobin tax" - a small tax on financial transactions, proportionate to the size of the transaction. The Tobin tax idea also has been proposed by Britain's former prime minister, Gordon Brown, and was proposed in Congress by U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-OR.
Every time a Tobin tax is proposed, it has failed to gain traction - which isn't surprising: Wall Street, with its international affiliates and legion of lobbyists, hates the idea.
Even so, the Tobin tax idea just refuses to die - which is a good thing, since it is probably the best way of curing some of Wall Street's pathologies.
To understand how the Tobin tax can benefit investors, please read on... -
Germany's Short-Selling Ban Lacks the Political Muscle to Go Global
Hoping to win more public and political support for its involvement in the bailout of Greece, Germany has banned the naked short-selling of European sovereign debt instruments. However, other European governments are refusing to follow suit, highlighting the lack of political will that's needed to regulate the credit default swap (CDS) market.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the ban would remain in place until the EU comes up with a comprehensive plan for financial reform.
"This will all remain in place until other rules are established on the European level," she said.
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What Does Germany's Credit-Default-Swap Ban Mean for You?
Germany did something on Tuesday that I've been hoping would happen for three years: It outlawed naked short-selling and speculation on European government bonds with naked credit default swaps.
The financial institutions that have been profiting from this type of speculation immediately went on the offensive.
German officials justified the surprise, unilateral move by financial regulator BaFin by stating that the "exceptional volatility" in government debt - if accompanied by massive short-selling and naked CDS trading - could result in excessive price movements that would actually "endanger the stability of the entire financial system."
To learn about the strategies you should employ because of Germany's move, please read on... -
Are 'Pure-Play' ETFs a Shrewd Investment – Or a Risk Not Worth Taking?
They're called "pure-play" exchange-traded funds (ETFs). And they're the latest rage in the ETF sector.
But are they too much of a risk?
According to Dictionary.com, a mutual fund is an investment company "that gives small investors access to a well-diversified portfolio of equities, bonds and other securities," professionally managed to "match the objective stated in the (fund's) prospectus."
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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Corporate Profits Query
Corporate profits returned in full in the first quarter of the year, with company after company topping Wall Street estimates.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) raked in $3.33 billion in first-quarter net income. Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) beat analysts' estimates with a $2.1 billion profit. Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL) brought in $3.38 billion.
"There is clear and broad-based improvement in the economic factors in the United States and around the world," said JPMorgan Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon. "It appears to be strengthening, not weakening. It is possible that they will strengthen enough to end up with a strong recovery."
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Money Morning Mailbag: Readers Eager For Effective Financial Regulation
The Money Morning mailbag continues to overflow with reader thoughts and concerns regarding financial reform – which is finally making slow progress in Washington. After three failed attempts to bring a financial regulation bill to the floor this week, the Senate on Wednesday finally agreed to start debate.
Following is a collection of this week’s Money Morning reader comments on our articles regarding reform, inspired also by more news from the Securities and Exchange Commission case against Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) as executives faced a Senate committee hearing.
