An interesting study published in Science recently found that people frequently underestimate their future selves. When asked to score their current preferences, values and personality traits compared with how they felt

10 years ago and how they will feel 10 years in the future, people believe they changed more in the past than they will in the future.

It didn't matter whether the participants were teenagers or middle-aged; people just assume that their present selves are "as good as it gets."

Investors have held a similar illusion about the stock market since the financial crisis.

With the barrage of negative headlines and abhorrence toward risk, investors seemed to feel that equities would not improve going forward.

This turned out to be a mistaken belief: Take a look at the last four years of U.S. market and gold returns.

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