oil commodities
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Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices Today
The collapse of talks between Iran and the "Big 6" (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) should have accelerated international crude oil prices.
And yes, they are higher.
But the real spike hasn't hit. Not yet.
The rising crisis atmosphere in the region and the genuine possibility that a fourth round of talks between the two sides will not even take place should have renewed the upward movement.
That hasn't taken place yet, either.
Oil prices are caught between the normal dynamics of geopolitical concerns - which push prices north - and continuing concerns over a global economic slowdown - which results in lowering expectations.
Now, this limbo is a delicate balance; it could change in a matter of hours.
We are likely to see a short-term rise Monday evening if the Norwegian oil and gas sector strike is not averted. Labor negotiations between Norway's oil workers and employers over pay and pensions failed - yet again - yesterday. The country is now just hours away from the first complete shutdown of its oil industry in decades. (Already, the strike has cut oil output by 13%, according to Reuters.)
Then there are the figures coming out from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which will almost certainly show a drawdown on U.S. inventories. Normally, that would also push up prices.
However, absent an Iranian move against the Strait of Hormuz or a major refinery accident somewhere in the world, the rise will be less than usual.
That's because right now, four things are tempering the oil price rise:
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Why Crude Oil Prices are in Steep Retreat
Oil prices sank to their lowest level in eight months Wednesday and the trend continues.
Crude oil for August delivery fell yesterday (Thursday) below the $80 line to $78.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Oil prices breaking the $80 line can have a psychological impact on traders, which could send oil spiraling even further.
"Oil is participating in the broad decline of equities and commodities," Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of Iitrader.com in Chicago, told Bloomberg News. "We broke an extremely key level for oil, the previous monthly low around $81."
Oil prices fell more than 3.5% the day after the Fed announced a disappointing extension of Operation Twist.
The commodities market, measured by the S&P GSCI Spot Index, entered into a bear market yesterday, off 22% from its highest close of the year on Feb. 24.
Many experts think oil is reaching a bottom - but there are other factors still in play.
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