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  • Why Commodities Investors Can Expect Sunnier Days Ahead

    During the current commodity supercycle, there have been occasions-too many to count-when investor psyche has been damaged by reports about slowing U.S. growth, a hard landing in China or a debt crisis in Europe.

    Yet just behind the gloom, significant and positive trends are taking hold, causing the storms to start dissipating.

    I often say that government policies are precursors to change, which is why we follow the monetary and fiscal actions closely as they can have a significant impact on asset prices.

    You have to go back about 16 months when Brazil kicked off the latest global easing cycle by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Since then many developing countries such as the Philippines, China and Colombia, as well as developed nations of Japan, the European Central Bank, the U.S. and the U.K. have joined forces in a world-wide synchronized stimulation of the economy.

    Last summer, Mario Draghi indicated that the ECB would do "whatever it takes" to save the euro. In the fall, the Federal Reserve agreed to buy $85 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgages, amounting to $1 trillion a year.

    And just recently, Japan announced that, in addition to pumping $1.1 trillion into the markets through 2013, the central bank will keep an open-ended approach to buying assets through 2014.

    Historically, central banks' policy actions occur after there's been some economic deterioration. Several months later, the stimulative measures work their way through the global economy.

    This has been the case with China, which has been showing remarkable improvement in its export-oriented HSBC Purchasing Managers Index. The PMI is a measure of health of companies in China, as it includes output, new orders, employment and prices across numerous sectors.

    This month, the Flash PMI came in at 51.9, beating market consensus, which was at 51.7. The PMI stands at a two-year high, as you can see in the chart below.

    To continue reading, please click here...

  • Four Things Suppressing Crude Oil Prices Today

    The collapse of talks between Iran and the "Big 6" (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) should have accelerated international crude oil prices.

    And yes, they are higher.

    But the real spike hasn't hit. Not yet.

    The rising crisis atmosphere in the region and the genuine possibility that a fourth round of talks between the two sides will not even take place should have renewed the upward movement.

    That hasn't taken place yet, either.

    Oil prices are caught between the normal dynamics of geopolitical concerns - which push prices north - and continuing concerns over a global economic slowdown - which results in lowering expectations.

    Now, this limbo is a delicate balance; it could change in a matter of hours.

    We are likely to see a short-term rise Monday evening if the Norwegian oil and gas sector strike is not averted. Labor negotiations between Norway's oil workers and employers over pay and pensions failed - yet again - yesterday. The country is now just hours away from the first complete shutdown of its oil industry in decades. (Already, the strike has cut oil output by 13%, according to Reuters.)

    Then there are the figures coming out from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, which will almost certainly show a drawdown on U.S. inventories. Normally, that would also push up prices.

    However, absent an Iranian move against the Strait of Hormuz or a major refinery accident somewhere in the world, the rise will be less than usual.

    That's because right now, four things are tempering the oil price rise:

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  • Why Crude Oil Prices are in Steep Retreat

    Oil prices sank to their lowest level in eight months Wednesday and the trend continues.

    Crude oil for August delivery fell yesterday (Thursday) below the $80 line to $78.20 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

    Oil prices breaking the $80 line can have a psychological impact on traders, which could send oil spiraling even further.

    "Oil is participating in the broad decline of equities and commodities," Rich Ilczyszyn, chief market strategist and founder of Iitrader.com in Chicago, told Bloomberg News. "We broke an extremely key level for oil, the previous monthly low around $81."

    Oil prices fell more than 3.5% the day after the Fed announced a disappointing extension of Operation Twist.

    The commodities market, measured by the S&P GSCI Spot Index, entered into a bear market yesterday, off 22% from its highest close of the year on Feb. 24.

    Many experts think oil is reaching a bottom - but there are other factors still in play.

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