Recession 2013 Prediction
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N/A: DJI
May 23 10:05 AM
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Recession 2013 Is On the Way; Here's What Jim Rogers is Doing
If legendary investor Jim Rogers is right, not only is Recession 2013 unavoidable, it's going to be a doozy.
In recent interviews, Rogers has been predicting a 2013 recession, bowled over by a potential blowout in Europe and unsustainable spending by the U.S. government.
"Be very worried about 2013 and be very worried about 2014, because that's when the next slowdown comes," Rogers told Reuters.
And while Rogers sees no true safe havens out there, a few investments can provide some comfort - specifically, commodities in the form of agriculture, gold, and silver.
Rogers' statements usually get lots of attention, mainly because he has an uncanny tendency to be right.
Together with George Soros, he founded the Quantum Fund in the 1970s and posted returns of 4,200% over 10 years. Rogers retired in 1980 at the age of 37, but remains active as a private investor.
Back in 1999, Rogers recommended gold when it was trading at $252 and silver at $4.
We all know what happened after that.
Here's the Jim Rogers take on the economy and how to survive Recession 2013.
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Central Banks Move to Prevent Recession 2013
With more investors and consumers concerned over the Recession 2013 threat, Europe and China today (Thursday) took action to motivate their sluggish economies and prevent a drastic global slowdown.
It hasn't even been a week since a crucial European summit provided a blueprint for the 17-member Eurozone to pull out of its debt crisis. But already the rally that immediately followed has fizzled. At issue is how European leaders will work out the tricky details for a central banking authority and the expanded use of bailout funds.
Now the European Central Bank (ECB) doesn't have much left in its arsenal to calm fears of a broad economic slowdown in the region. It used one of its last tools Thursday when it slashed its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, the lowest level since 1999, when the euro was created.
At this level, the ECB hopes that bankers be more willing to lend and also that investors will open their wallets wider.
ECB President Mario Draghi noted in a press conference following the group's decision that the move was made independently of China's decision to cut rates.
"There wasn't any co-ordination that went beyond the normal exchange of views on the state of the business cycle...economy...or global demand," said Draghi.
Draghi stressed that the cut wasn't aimed to help an individual country, but to assist the entire struggling region.
"We can genuinely say that this measure is addressed to the whole of the euro area, and not only to specific countries," he said.
Reiterating that markets haven't felt the full effect of the ECB's recent moves to increase liquidity, Draghi also cautioned that the bank could only do so much. Draghi said the central bank couldn't do more than it already had to encourage people to borrow or invest.
"Credit is now led predominantly by demand, and if demand is weak, you wouldn't expect string credit growth," Draghi added.
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How this Year's Election Will Shape "Recession 2013"
More and more Americans have voiced concern over the U.S. economy barreling toward "Recession 2013."
Fears were fueled by a May 22 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report that claimed the scheduled year-end tax increases and spending cuts (known as Taxmageddon and fiscal cliff) will be followed by a U.S. recession.
Congress has until the end of the year to change the course of the U.S. economy, although the longer it waits, the more volatility could creep into markets.
"The markets don't want to wait until Dec. 31," Peter Fisher, senior managing director at BlackRock Inc., and a former Federal Reserve and Treasury official, told Bloomberg Television May 30. "Congress is going to have to wake up in October when the markets start pricing in the uncertainty of a recession in 2013."
But there's another big factor at play: Election 2012.
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Recession 2013: This Report Shows We're Already Headed There
Recent reports have indicated a downturn in the U.S. economy. Coupled with fears stemming from the Eurozone debt crisis, they've fueled speculation about "Recession 2013."
In fact, former President Bill Clinton said he thinks we are already in a recession - and that was before the latest U.S. unemployment numbers were released, painting an even gloomier picture.
By now most of you have heard about the awful numbers in the discouraging U.S. jobs report for May, where only 69,000 jobs were added - nowhere near the 150,000 expected.
But what's worse about the U.S. jobs report is the trend of long-term unemployment.
Even though the national unemployment rate has dropped from its October 2009 high of 10.1% to its current level of 8.2%, the long-term unemployment levels have not seen a similar drop.
Without improvement in these numbers, fears regarding another recession will become reality.How U.S. Jobs Trend Will Spell "Recession 2013"
Long-term unemployment, measured every six months, reached a peak of 46% of the unemployed population during May 2010.
That number has only fallen to 42.8%, or 5.4 million of the total unemployed, and has risen of late.
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