Stock Market
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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's "Flash Crash" Query
The May 6 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average triggered a roar of theories on the cause of the "flash crash." Was it a "fat finger" that entered an incorrect trade, leading automated trading systems to hit a high-frenzied sell mode? Did the initial sell-off fuel panic that escalated sales before manual corrections could be implemented?
As the New York Stock Exchange slowed trading, orders were routed to electronic exchanges that were not operating under the same safeguards and some companies' stocks were briefly valued at just pennies.
The exchanges have agreed to revise circuit breakers designed to stop trading during periods of extreme volatility, and to develop standards for handling erroneous trades. Almost all exchanges admitted that the markets' varying policies on halting trading contributed to the roller coaster ride.
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Stock Market Strategies for the Post-Financial-Crisis 'New World Order'
For many investors, the recent thousand-point plunge by the U.S. stock market was probably the proverbial last straw.
So let me be perfectly clear about the point that I want to make here: Sitting on the sidelines could be the investment mistake of a lifetime. The post-financial-crisis "new world order" that's emerged from the speculative excesses, recessionary realities and regulatory breakdowns of recent years has created a world of lucrative new profit opportunities - governed by a new set of profit rules.
Let me explain...
To discover the next generation of global-stock-market winners, read on...
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We Want to Hear From You: How Has the Market's "Flash Crash" Affected Your Investment Behavior?
Thursday's Dow Jones Industrial Average 1000-point drop triggered a roar of theories on the cause of the "flash crash." Was it a "fat finger" that entered an incorrect trade, leading automated trading systems to hit a high-frenzied sell mode? Did the initial sell-off fuel panic that escalated sales before manual corrections could be implemented?
As the New York Stock Exchange slowed trading, orders were routed to electronic exchanges that were not operating under the same safeguards and some companies' stocks were briefly valued at just pennies.
"I still haven't heard a satisfactory answer as to what happened and what could be done about it," Frank C. Boucher, the head of a Virginia-based financial planning firm, told Bloomberg on Monday - four days after the market's drop.
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Dramatic Drops and Short-Covering Rallies Illustrate How Capital Waves Lead to Profits
The Greece rescue package is signed and sealed, but is still far from being delivered. It took three tries, but this time global investors believe the EU got it right. Investors celebrated yesterday (Monday) with a relief rally that touched virtually all of the world's key financial markets - and that served as a strident counterpoint to the near-freefall that gripped the U.S. stock market on Thursday.
So is it finally time to shelve our fears of financial contagion, meaning the financial shocks that start with one nation or market and spark a conflagration that spreads through interdependent entities in plague-like fashion?
Definitely not. In fact, hang onto your hats: We have just entered the brave new world where a butterfly flapping its wings in China can fan a market fire on the other side of the world. There are more contagions to come. But because of forces known as "capital waves," the same heat that burns some investors can also generate substantial profits for those who understand how to position themselves.
To understand how capital waves bring profits, please read on...
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Thursday's Wild Stock Market Ride Spotlights 'High-Frequency Trading' as the Latest Worry For Investors
Back on April 14, U.S. stocks advanced for the fifth day in a row, causing the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index to close above the 1,200 level for the first time in more than 18 months.
Traders said that a growing confidence in the strength of the U.S. rebound was a key rally catalyst.
But Money Morning's Shah Gilani was worried.
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Should Investors Sell in May and Go Away, or Ride the Bull Awhile Longer?
I'm sure you have heard the old saw that it's a smart idea to "sell in May and go away."
That concept is based on the notion that the May-to-November span provides a weak environment for investors. I have already heard the cry go up recently because the major indexes are already up a lot more than anyone expected, and this would seem to be a convenient time to take profits.
Yet like most old market adages, there's not much substance to the concept if you take a good look at history. -
Here's Why U.S. Stocks May be Headed Higher
U.S. stocks were back up to their old tricks last week, as volatility waned and financial, industrial and retail stocks waxed. It was a week in which risk was in fashion - until Friday, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hammered Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) with fraud charges related to the subprime-mortgage crisis. With that, playing defense was considered offensive.
Leading the way forward were companies that are the ultimate in beta and hopefulness - such as beaten-down bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK), which rose 60%, beaten-down car parts maker American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL), up 10%, beaten-up retailer Tuesday Morning Corp. (Nasdaq: TUES), up 24%; and beaten shoemaker Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX), up 20%. We're not talking, here, about investors who last year bought the shares of companies that were left for dead; these stocks might actually be worth something in an economic turnaround.
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Low Stock Market Volume: It's Even Weaker Than You Think
Conventional investing wisdom tells us that when stocks rally on low stock market volume, traders perceive that lack of widespread participation as an indicator of the market's future vulnerability.
And as torrid as this rally in U.S. stock prices has been, the lack of trading volume has been a consistent cause for concern.
Unfortunately for market bulls, even this well-chronicled concern doesn't tell the whole story. That's because U.S. stock market volume is even worse - actually, much worse - than anyone realizes. And this ultra-low stock market volume should be sending up some serious red flags for investors.
To find out how Wall Street is artificially inflating stock-market volume, read on ... -
Question of the Week: Overlooked Problems Will Kill the U.S. Bull Market
The U.S. stock market has staged one of its most powerful rallies in history, zooming nearly 70% in the 12 months that followed the March 9, 2009 market low. U.S. stocks soared another 5% during the first three months of 2010 - its best first quarter in a dozen years. But where do we go from here?
Between the New York Stock Exchange continuously reaching new highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising up along its eight-day average, and a rebounding retail sector, there's reason to celebrate what appears to be a market recovery offering investors profit opportunities.
"You can't bury your head in the sand and ignore what's happening," said Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. "If you did that, you've missed a 60%-plus rally in the [Standard & Poor's 500 Index] since early last March. You cannot fail to acknowledge what's happening" in the markets, even though top traders understand that cheap money from the government bailout - and not a well-rounded economic recovery - is most likely behind the torrid run-up in U.S. share prices.
Money Morning Question of the Week: Is this a true bull market? A year from now, are U.S. stocks - as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 Index - trading higher, lower, or at the same level as they are today?
What follows are some of the most well thought-out responses we received (as well as a previous comment regarding the bull vs. bear market argument posted on our Web site) with many agreeing this bull market is too good to be true.
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Fastest Recovery Ever Could Push Corporate Profits to Record Highs in 2010
Sometimes we get a little carried away talking about esoteric subjects like bulls, bears, supply, demand, moving averages and the like. But if you just want to focus on something real, then look at corporate profits. When they're rising from a low, that's good; when they're flat-lining or declining, that's bad. Pretty simple.
Much of the rally of the past year has been in anticipation of a profit recovery. And now that recovery is actually coming in a bit better than bulls expected, which is why they are able to elbow bears so effectively. ISI Group now figures that corporate profits will clock in at +38.8% for the first quarter (year over year) of 2010, then +42.4% in the second quarter, +36.8% in the third quarter and then +30% in the fourth quarter (against harder comparisons). That would put profits in 2010 up a record 36.1% overall.
To read more about how corporate earnings will shape the market click here.
