- July's Narrowing Trade Gap Lifts Hope for U.S. Economic Recovery
- There's Reason to be Pessimistic about the U.S. Economy, but Never Panic
- Washington – Not China – Is the Real Manipulator Here
- Europe-China Connection Could Rattle Stocks
- U.S. Stocks: Winning Streak is Over, But Bull Market Continues
- U.S. Trade Deficit Widens, but Signals a Healthier Economy
- China Passing U.S. as World's Largest Auto Market
- Strong Exports Compress Trade Deficit
- Gold Climbs to 27 Year High, Oil Eclipses the $83 Level
- U.S. Exports Grow at Fastest Pace in Three Years
- China scraps currency rules for companies
Indeed, housing and unemployment continue to weigh on the U.S. economy. But don't panic. Remember that the prospects for a full economic recovery are much better outside the United States, and that it's often good to be greedy when others are fearful.
To find out more about the precarious state of the U.S. economy read on...
The Obama administration's assertion that China is artificially keeping the yuan undervalued to gain a global competitive advantage isn't just misguided: It actually demonstrates that Washington lacks even a basic understanding of global economics. Given that the same U.S. leaders who have been pushing to hang this manipulator label on China and impose sanctions are the same ones who tried to end the financial crisis by creating a river of debt that will haunt us for years, I can't say that I'm surprised.
As the U.S. argument goes, pegging its currency to the dollar gives China a distinct advantage when it comes to less-expensive manufacturing and a strong export market. The implication is that somehow this is negatively impacting our economy, or - in a variation of the same logic - holding back our recovery. Washington points to the massive trade deficits we regularly run with that country as evidence of China's currency-market wrongdoing.
In reality, China's pegged currency has done two things. First, it's allowed the United States to keep its inflation rate at a much lower (and more-manageable) level than it should have been in view of the $14 trillion in debt that this country has taken on.
And, second, it's allowed China to fuel its own stimulus package while at the same time assuming a meaningful role in the ongoing global recovery.
The Shanghai stock market ended a fraction higher, so it was a bit anticlimactic. But the key thing to know is that the Chinese market still appears to be in a downtrend and that bodes ill for the rest of the emerging markets. The 50-day moving average of iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE: FXI) has turned emphatically negative, as has the slightly longer 100-day average. The index fund also is already beneath its 200-day average, which tends to distinguish bull cycles from bear cycles.