U.S. Stocks
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Is the Plunge in Commodities a Bear Market Signal for Stocks?
The biggest slump in commodity prices since 2008 is undermining confidence on Wall Street and fueling speculation that a new bear market has been born.
Despite forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices, commodities, with the notable exception of gold, are taking a big hit.
The Journal of Commerce (JOC) Commodity Index that tracks the growth rate of steel, cattle hides, tallow and burlap plunged 57% in May, the most since October 2008 - something that gave analysts a sense of dj vu.
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Why U.S. Stocks Will Rise Above Weak Growth in Global Markets
After another lousy week, it's official: Global markets have suffered the worst late-spring setback since 1940 -- a May-June period when the Germans invaded the Netherlands, then marched into Paris, and Italy declared war on France and Great Britain. Just like that, seven decades ago, World War II was on, and markets went into freefall.
If stocks are as good at anticipating global calamity this time as they were in that horrible spring 70 years ago, we may be in for a terrible second half.
It's a bitter irony that so many of those old enmities are flaring up again on the Continent at this critical time. The European Union was created two decades ago at behest of the former Allies to prevent the Continent from sliding into armed conflict again, and the euro currency was later launched to cement the new political relationship.
But many centuries of deep-seated distrust are hard to negate with diplomacy and idealistic optimism, and now we see Europeans back at each others' throats in a flurry of recriminations over who is to blame for outrageous deficits, debts and defaults in the Eurozone -- and more importantly, who should pay for them.
To read about how Europe's turmoil could affect the U.S. economy, click here. -
Two Big Reasons to Believe the U.S. Stock Market Will Bounce Back
There's been a lot of cheerless news coming out of Europe lately, and that's taken a toll on the U.S. stock market. But I want to take this opportunity to offer up some positive points and remind investors that it's still too early to declare the bull-market dead, and even more premature to fret over a new bear market beginning.
There are two key considerations that support a continued rise in U.S. stocks:
To find out why it's too early to give up on stocks, read on... -
Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Market Volatility Query
The Dow Jones Industrial Average last week dipped below 10,000 for the first time since February as a month of market volatility and price declines continued. Analysts predicted volatility to continue into June as government exit strategies begin and liquidity dwindles.
The zooming rebound in U.S. stock prices from their March 9, 2009 bottom - the strongest rebound since the Great Depression - has been stymied by concerns over the Eurozone debt contagion, financial reform, the market flash crash and new political sparks in Korea. Figures show that the bulls are still hanging around - on the sidelines - but the bears have been calling the shots during a month that has seen stock prices fall more than 8%.
"I think it's a question of pick your poison," Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told MarketWatch. "The market was poised for a very severe correction and whether it's southern Mediterranean countries or worries about German banks, you can pick your catalyst." -
Sell in May – But Don't Go Away From the U.S. Stock Market
If you embrace the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Go Away" as an investing strategy, you could end up with a bad case of the U.S. stock market summer blues, a new research study has found.
That concept is based on the notion that the May-to-November span provides a weak environment for U.S. stock market investors. According to Jon Markman, a best-selling author and contributing writer to Money Morning, that viewpoint started gaining traction in late April. And why not? The major U.S. indexes were already up a lot more than anyone expected, making that a seemingly convenient point to take profits.
Those who didn't follow that strategy probably now wish that they had.
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We Want to Hear From You: How Are You Responding to Market Volatility?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped below 10,000 Tuesday for the first time since February as a month of market volatility and price declines continued.
The zooming rebound in U.S. stock prices from their March 9, 2009 bottom - the strongest rebound since the Great Depression - has been stymied by concerns over the Eurozone debt contagion, financial reform, the market flash crash and new political sparks in Korea. Data shows that the bulls are still hanging around - on the sidelines - but the bears have been calling the shots during a month that has seen stock prices fall more than 8%.
"I think it's a question of pick your poison," Dan Alpert, managing partner at Westwood Capital, told MarketWatch. "The market was poised for a very severe correction and whether it's southern Mediterranean countries or worries about German banks, you can pick your catalyst."
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The Real Story Behind Last Week's Stock-Market Panic
Thursday's U.S. stock market trading session qualified as a genuine stock-market "panic." They're rare, fortunately, so they're memorable.
You can say you were there.
According to the volume analysts at Lowry Research Corp., this stock market panic was on par with the mini crash of October 1989, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 6.9% in a single day. But it wasn't on par with the famed session of October 1987, when the Dow plunged 22.6% in a day.
For an in-depth analysis of last week's U.S. stock market panic, please read on...
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European Debt Contagion Puts U.S. Stock Market on Rollercoaster Ride
Panic over European debt contagion sent the U.S. stock market on a wild ride today (Thursday), at one point sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly below 10,000 for the first time since November 2009 before the market turned again.
The Dow was down nearly 1,000 points at 9,869.62 at about 2:40 p.m. EDT when it suddenly rebounded. The Dow ended up closing at 10,517 down 350.97 points or 3.2 % on the day. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2319 down 82.65 points or 3.4%, and the Standard & Poors 500 Index closed at 1127 down 37.85 points or 3.2%.
The trading left the Dow down 6.1% from its yearly high of 11,205, set less than two weeks ago on April 26.
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The Bull Market Will Pick Up Pace When Retail Investors Finally Climb Aboard
Data shows that retail investors have not yet bought into the bull market. But when they eventually do regain their confidence, the market will soar to new heights.
Consider this: Trim Tabs Investment Research, a boutique data analysis firm in the San Francisco Bay area that's popular with hedge fund managers, last week declared that it had turned fully bullish from cautiously bullish on U.S. stocks. The firm thus boosted its recommended equity exposure to 100% long from 50% long.
The reason for Trim Tabs' change of posture: Its unique blend of macroeconomic data shows the U.S. economy making a gradual recovery, corporate buybacks are picking up during earnings season, and demand indicators are increasingly bullish.
Let's spend some time understanding their point of view, as the firm is influential among large institutions.
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European Debt Crisis Raises Caution Flags But U.S. Economy Won't Be Derailed
Stocks somersaulted into the red early last week in the wake of European debt downgrades, rising revulsion over the prospect of a bailout of Athens and a broad re-pricing of risk. Breadth was negative, the number of new highs shrank and number of new lows swelled. Financials tumbled and retailers stumbled. Caution flags are rising.
Click Here to Read More on how European Debt Will Affect the Markets
