us economic forecast

Why There's No Real Inflation (Yet)

According to Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman, "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
Well, apparently not...
There's certainly plenty of cause for inflation today. Every central bank in the Western world is holding interest rates down, and almost all of them are printing money like it's going out of style. And the big deficits governments were running should be making inflationary matters even worse. Taken together, monetary and fiscal policies are far more extreme than they have ever been.
But today inflation is only running at around 2% - well below where it should be, according to Milton's monetarist theories.
What does it all mean?

2013 U.S. Economic Forecast: Even Without the Fiscal Cliff, A Recession Still Looms

Everyone is worried about the damage the "fiscal cliff" might do to the U.S. economy in 2013, but the reality is that's only one of the potential problems in our 2013 U.S. Economic Forecast.

At present there appears to be four problems-- aside from the fiscal cliff-- that could throw the U.S. economy into recession in 2013.

These are international problems that include:

  • Brewing trouble in Japan: Japan faces an election next month. More importantly, its government debt is currently 230% of GDP, with that ratio rising by about 10% a year. The current government has increased sales tax in 2014, which may cause a recession and will likely push its debt to GDP ratio even higher.

    The problem is no country has ever survived a debt/GDP ratio above about 250% without defaulting. Britain did succeed with this in 1815 and 1945, but on the second occasion it relied on exchange controls, inflation, and dozy domestic investors, while on the first occasion it had a government under Lord Liverpool far more capable than anything we have seen in the last 185 years.

    The point is, if Japan gets a weak coalition after its election, the market may panic and cause a Japanese government default.

To continue reading, please click here...

To continue reading, please click here...

© 2014 Money Map Press. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning. 16 W. Madison St. Baltimore, MD, 21201, Email: customerservice@MoneyMorning.com