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Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to show a gain of 160,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.9%, when the Labor Department releases the February jobs report tomorrow (Friday) at 8:30 a.m.
Employment growth has averaged 177,000 per month over the last six months, and February is expected to fall short.
One reason is the 2% payroll tax cut that ended with 2012, leaving workers with less disposable income. Also, top income earners were slapped with a higher tax rate.
The full tax impact wasn't felt in January, but retailers and restaurants are beginning to feel the pain.
us jobs report graph
Take a Closer Look Before Cheering the November U.S. Jobs Report
The Department of Labor today (Friday) released the November U.S. jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy added 146,000 jobs last month, handily beating most economists' expectations.
The addition pushed the unemployment rate down from an unhealthy 7.9% to a still elevated 7.7%. That is the lowest level in four years, since December 2008.
Projections for the unemployment level ranged for it hold steady at 7.9% or rise to up to 8.1%.
But the reasons for the drop aren't as encouraging as the lowered rate itself.
The Real Story of the November U.S. Jobs ReportThe reason behind the surprising drop was because more dejected workers simply left the labor force. Some 350,000 people, unable to find work and no longer looking for a job, have dropped off the radar and were not counted among the slew of individuals still out of work.
The labor participation rate fell 20 basis points to 63.6%. Without this drop in the labor force, the unemployment rate would have remained at 7.9%.
Three years after the end of the 2007-2009 recession, the labor force participation rate remains extremely weak. If the rate reflected normal levels, the unemployment rate would be considerably higher.
Also contributing to the unexpected uptick was early seasonal retail hiring, instead of long-term sustainable positions. Retail was a key jobs producer in November, adding 53,000 to payrolls.
That's partly due to Thanksgiving being earlier this year than usual. Plus, more stores kicked-off the holiday shopping spree much before the usual Black Friday start.
These factors "suggest an asterisk will have to be put alongside the monthly non-farm report," Bloomberg senior economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in today's Bloomberg Economics Brief.
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How Political Spin Skewed the U.S. Jobs Report
The stock market – closed Friday for a holiday – had a chance today (Monday) to react to the March employment report – and fell in morning trading.
Although job gains continued in March, they were about 90,000 short of what was expected. Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald joined Fox Business’ “Varney & Co.” program Monday morning to take a closer look at the U.S. jobs report.
Fitz-Gerald detailed why investors need to look beyond the unemployment rate drop at more telling numbers – data the White House would like you to ignore.
Watch this video of Fitz-Gerald with “Varney & Co.” host Stuart Varney to find out what you need to know about the U.S. jobs report, and how it could affect the markets and economic recovery.