By Shah Gilani Contributing Editor While it's clear from the current credit crisis that our financial system is at a critical juncture, it's just as clear that there's no agreement over how we should fix the problems we face. The reality is that neither the plan put forth by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. "Hank" Paulson Jr. - nor any of the addendums offered up by Congress or the lobbyists - will resolve this crisis.
The key culprits are the structured financial products that reside on the balance sheets of banks, dead investment banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and all manner of other duped and unsuspecting investor entities worldwide, as well as the proliferation of the unregulated $62 trillion credit default swaps (CDS) market.
Because all these securities, and in the case of credit default swaps, bilateral contracts, are impossible to value and impossible to guarantee, no one trusts them. As a result, everyone is afraid of these securities and contracts.
Banks are currently not lending to one another because they are afraid that the next round of write-downs and losses may imperil some of their trading partner banks to which they formerly lent billions and billions of dollars to every night. If the answer were really as simple as adding liquidity, the Federal Reserve would have lowered the Fed Funds target. But that won't work. It's a vicious cycle that's eroding banks' faith in one another, and worse, our faith in our banks.
Unfortunately, I don't see the Treasury Department's much-needed rescue plan being effective without actually addressing the pricing of - indeed, the very existence of - credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations. As well intentioned as it is, the Treasury plan will create more problems than it solves and will eventually saddle taxpayers with so much debt that it will tank the dollar. It could even put the U.S. government's AAA investment rating at risk. That would be calamitous.
I have a modest proposal that I'm calling the Money Morning Plan, because it potentially heralds a new dawn in the credit crisis, addressing the problems from the bottom up, and not from the top down. The bottom line is that my plan will end the credit crisis quickly with potentially little or no cost to taxpayers. And those are the two most important benefits of all. I present my plan as an open letter for public debate.
Dear Ladies and Gentlemen,
How we respond to the upheavals in our financial markets will define the American character at home and in the eyes of the world. With our cherished history of free markets and entrepreneurial spirit, we should guide ourselves as we always have, trusting our collective financial interests to our Constitution, which created a government by the people, for the people. Trying times are not a mandate to foreswear our personal, financial nor collective economic interests to any lobby or government other than one that protects all our rights, especially the right to not be taxed unfairly or unjustly.
The proposed Treasury Department rescue plan before Congress has not been presented without due consideration. There are, however, other proposals that merit our collective contemplation. As a taxpayer and investor, I am proposing an alternative plan for open discussion. We need to act quickly, but we need to act responsibly.
Respectfully;
Shah Gilani Contributing Editor Money Morning www.moneymorning.com
[Editor's Note: Contributing Editor R. Shah Gilani has toiled in the trading pits in Chicago, run trading desks in New York, operated as a broker/dealer and managed everything from hedge funds to currency accounts. In his just-completed three-part investigation of the U.S. credit crisis, Gilani was able to provide insider insights that no other financial writer or commentator could hope to match. He drew upon the experiences and network of contacts that he developed through the years to provide Money Morning readers with the "real story" of the credit crisis. It's a perspective on the near-financial meltdown that you'll find nowhere else. If you missed Gilani's investigative series, Part I appeared Friday, Part II ran Monday and Part III was published yesterday (Wednesday).]
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