By William Patalon III
Executive Editor
Money Morning/The Money Map Report
After U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers meet today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday), most experts expect a half a percentage point cut in the benchmark Federal Funds Rate – which is already 1.0%.
That doesn’t leave members of the central bank’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) much room to maneuver. Still, the policymakers may have more ammunition in their arsenal and the statement that accompanies the rate decision at the end of the two-day session could shed some insight on the “creative” actions the Fed could consider in addition to rate cuts (For instance, the central bank could extend the new investment firm discount window, offer additional loan guarantees, or utilize any number of other tools).
And the Fed may well have to use those other tools. As Japan’s “Lost Decade” demonstrated, “zero” interest rates won’t necessarily jump-start an economy – especially when interest rates weren’t really the problem. And as several Money Morning investigative pieces have demonstrated, the low interest rates aren’t necessarily inducing banks to lend. Indeed, many banks are using the federal bailout money to finance buyout deals.
The ministers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will meet in Algeria on Wednesday and President Chakib Khelil implied that a surprisingly sizable production cut is in the cards. While OPEC controls about 40% of the world’s oil supplies, energy analysts hold more stock in actions rather than words. Said one of those analysts: “You can announce all the cuts you want. Compliance is the key."
Market Matters
In a major story last week, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) may be eliminating 35,000 jobs as it adds Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) to its ever-growing list of subsidiary companies.
But in an even bigger story, Wall Street powerbroker, Bernard Madoff stole the headlines (and about $50 billion from investors in the process). This former chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. (NDAQ) ASDAQ was arrested for committing perhaps the largest investor fraud in history (Enron may be off the hook) as Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities LLC appears to have been “basically a giant Ponzi scheme” (his own words). Though the client list seemed relatively small, at first, the implications will be quite widespread, as some of the largest hedge funds of funds participated in Madoff’s investments; their clients include some of the world’s (formerly) wealthiest folks. Additionally, regulators will have quite a few questions to answer as lax oversight failed to uncover this massive fraud that may have been perpetrated for years. Stay tuned – this one isn’t going away any time soon.
In “lighter” news, the U.S. House of Representative passed a “preliminary” auto bailout package that would provide $14 billion to the Big Three – Ford Motor Co. (F) may not need any for now – and create a new car czar to oversee an industry restructuring. While Wall Street initially hailed the move as a positive step to a necessary overhaul, the Senate demanded greater concessions from auto unions and the bill became basically “dead on arrival.” Since the U.S. Treasury Department appears to be growing more comfortable with the bailout concept with each passing day, Bush administration officials implied that aid via the $700 billion Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) would be forthcoming even without Senate approval. By the way, an oversight committee gave the financial bailout a rather poor initial report card, claiming a lack of transparency in terms of how dollars are being spent and whether recipients are complying with government intentions (no wonder the automakers want to participate as well).
Elsewhere, Merrill’s John A. Thain reversed an earlier position by “choosing” to forgo his 2008 bonus and Morgan Stanley’s (MS) John J. Mack quickly followed suit. The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW), Sony Corp. (ADR: SNE), and 3M Corp. (MMM) joined BofA and others in announcing sizable job cuts. FedEx Corp. (FDX) and The Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) reduced prior outlooks and sales projections.
Oil prices fluctuated greatly as traders weighed contrasting supply/demand reports:
- The Energy Information Administration expects weak demand to result in declining consumption through 2009 even as significant production cuts could be announced at the upcoming OPEC meeting.
- With oil trading below $47 a barrel, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) (of “we’re going to $200/barrel fame”) contradicted past forecasts by claiming prices could fall to $30 (and lost some credibility in the process).
Stocks reacted favorably to rumors of President-elect Barack Obama’s $500+ billion stimulus package (see below) and the apparent progress with automaker negotiations. As the week moved on, reports of new job losses and more financial woes halted the brief optimism and the Senate’s inability to pass an auto bill brought more excessive volatility. A “flight-to-quality” sentiment contributed to yields on 3-month T-bills dipping to 0.0% (that’s ZERO percent … talk about risk averse).
|
Market/ Index |
Year Close (2007) |
Qtr Close (09/30/08) |
Previous Week |
Current Week |
YTD Change |
|
Dow Jones Industrial |
13,264.82 |
10,850.66 |
8,635.42 |
8,629.68 |
-34.94% |
|
NASDAQ |
2,652.28 |
2,091.88 |
1,509.31 |
1,540.72 |
-41.91% |
|
S&P 500 |
1,468.36 |
1,164.74 |
876.07 |
879.73 |
-40.09% |
|
Russell 2000 |
766.03 |
679.58 |
461.09 |
468.43 |
-38.85% |
|
Fed Funds |
4.25% |
2.00% |
1.00% |
1.00% |
-325 bps |
|
10 yr Treasury (Yield) |
4.04% |
3.83% |
2.66% |
2.59% |
-145 bps |
Economically Speaking
"I am absolutely confident that if we take the right steps over the coming months, that not only can we get the economy back on track, but we can emerge leaner, meaner and ultimately more competitive and more prosperous."
Somehow an economic stimulus plan which directs $500+ billion into new FDR-like public works programs to increase employment does not necessarily imply “leaner and meaner.” Still, many analysts believe the Obama plan (still in its infancy) may be just the tonic needed to jumpstart the economy.
Meanwhile, the European Union announced its own $200 billion package as the 27 member countries struggle with global recession. Not to be outdone, Japan revealed some sizable stimulus measures of its own late in the week. With the recession already pushing a year in duration, Duke University released results of its Global Business Outlook Survey which showed that 60% of domestic CFOs believe the downturn will last until the 4th quarter of next year – and perhaps longer. Similarly, a
Wall Street Journal forecasting survey predicted four straight quarters of negative growth as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP, the longest period of economic contraction since the Great Depression.
A light week on the economic calendar ended with a couple of major reports that gave the Fed a bit more anecdotal material to (over-)analyze prior to the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow. With claims for unemployment benefits soaring to their highest level since November 1982, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and friends must make job creation among their top priorities. November retail sales fell by 1.8% as automakers reported their worst level of monthly activity in 26 years.
Still, the decline was less than Wall Street expected, leading Morgan Stanley’s analysts to speculate about future downward revisions. Wholesale inflation (as measured by the producer price index, or PPI) declined by 2.2% as gasoline prices plummeted by 25% in November. Normally, consumers would welcome such news and gladly spend those savings from the pumps at the malls during the holidays. Instead economists continue to spread more “gloom and doom” by suggesting consumers may hoard their savings and resist spending amid these uncertain times.
Weekly Economic Calendar
|
Date |
Release |
Comments |
|
December 11 |
Initial Jobless Claims (12/06) |
Highest level of claims in 26 years |
|
|
Balance of Trade (10/08) |
Surprising increase on surge in oil imports |
|
December 12 |
PPI (11/08) |
25+% drop in gas prices led to 2.2% overall decline |
|
|
Retail Sales (11/08) |
A record 5th consecutive monthly decline |
|
The Week Ahead |
|
|
|
December 15 |
Industrial Production (11/08) |
|
|
December 16 |
Housing Starts (11/08) |
|
|
|
CPI (11/08) |
|
|
|
Fed Policy Meeting Statement |
|
|
December 18 |
Initial Jobless Claims (12/13) |
|
|
|
Leading Eco Indicators (11/08) |
|
News and Related Story Links:
-
Money Morning Week Ahead Column:
Fed Looking at Another Rate Cut, While Treasury Has New Plan for Housing. -
Money Morning Special Investment Research Report:
The Lost Decade: How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s Ten Years of Misery - And How to Play it. -
Money Morning Investigative Research Report:
Billions in U.S. Bank Rescue Funds are Fueling Buyouts Worldwide – Instead of Lending at Home. -
Reuters:
OPEC's Khelil, a pragmatic leader in testing times. -
Bloomberg News:
Madoff Victims’ ‘Tragedy’ Said to Have Escaped Scrutiny. -
Wikipedia:
Ponzi Scheme. -
The New York Times:
Wilpon’s Losses in Fraud Case May Affect Mets. -
Money Morning News:
Obama’s Talk of Infrastructure Investment Moves Monday Markets.
About the Author
Before he moved into the investment-research business in 2005, William (Bill) Patalon III spent 22 years as an award-winning financial reporter, columnist, and editor. Today he is the Executive Editor and Senior Research Analyst for Money Morning at Money Map Press.