Archives for May 2010

May 2010 - Page 4 of 9 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Taipan Daily: BP Risks Facing Criminal Charges For Oil Spill

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Fallout from the BP oil spill is spreading. And far from being "cheap" as some pundits suggest, BP's share price could implode if criminal charges are filed.

It's not looking good for British Petroleum… or the Gulf of Mexico. In fact it's looking like an outright disaster, about as bad as we feared.

And BP's stock – which a number of armchair contrarians quickly dubbed as "cheap" in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon spill – is at risk of being massacred.

Don't trust the smart-aleck "buy the dip" viewpoints on this one. Not only would investors be unwise to buy call options on British Petroleum at current levels, they may well be better off buying long-dated put options instead… in anticipation of seeing BP's stock price cut in half. Or worse.

We're talking about $50 billion to $100 billion worth of market cap here… at real risk of being wiped out. (That notion might sound wacky. But a lot of folks thought the concept of a "euro crash" was wacky too, when we started pounding the table for it a number of months ago…)

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What Really Caused the Stock Market 'Flash Crash'

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Just when you thought it was safe to get back into U.S. stocks, you think you see a shark.

If you are searching – like the regulatory lifeguards and all the political beach bums – to pinpoint and kill the menacing shark that took a huge bite out of investor confidence when the Dow Jones Industrial Average tanked 1,000 points in a just a few minutes late in the day on May 6, don't bother to scan the horizon looking for the dorsal fin of some lurking predator.

The threat you fear isn't under the water: It is the water.

We're talking about market liquidity.

For the full story of the stock-market flash crash - and for some cautionary steps to take - please read on...

Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's "Flash Crash" Query

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The May 6 1000-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average triggered a roar of theories on the cause of the "flash crash." Was it a "fat finger" that entered an incorrect trade, leading automated trading systems to hit a high-frenzied sell mode? Did the initial sell-off fuel panic that escalated sales before manual corrections could be implemented?

As the New York Stock Exchange slowed trading, orders were routed to electronic exchanges that were not operating under the same safeguards and some companies' stocks were briefly valued at just pennies.

The exchanges have agreed to revise circuit breakers designed to stop trading during periods of extreme volatility, and to develop standards for handling erroneous trades. Almost all exchanges admitted that the markets' varying policies on halting trading contributed to the roller coaster ride.

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General Motors: On the Road to Recovery, but Moving Slowly

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General Motors Corp. just logged its first quarterly profit since 2007. The company also claims to have paid back its government loans "in full," and is rumored to be interested in buying back its financing arm.

But the truth of the matter is that GM isn't as far down the path to recovery as it would like the public to believe. The company's strong first quarter was greatly aided by Toyota Motor Corp.'s (NYSE ADR: TM) highly publicized recalls. Its claims that it has paid back government debt have been greatly exaggerated. And the United Automobile Workers (UAW) union is already pushing for restoration of many of the perks that it lost during the auto industry's near collapse.

General Motors reported first-quarter profit of $865 million as its revenue surged 40% to $31.5 billion. That made for the company's first quarterly profit in three years. GM – a company that took millions in taxpayer money to remain viable and came close to running out of money in 2008 – reported free cash flow of $1 billion.

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We Want to Hear From You: Are U.S. Consumers Finally Willing to Spend Again? Are You?

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Recent reports show U.S. consumers are spending again; some are actually even ditching the whole discount mentality in favor of luxury brands, while others are making long-delayed big-ticket purchases.

Individual spending rose for the sixth consecutive month in April, this time by 0.6%, or $36 billion. Personal income was up 0.3%. U.S. gross domestic product climbed at a 3.2% annual rate for the first three months of 2010, and U.S. factory output has risen.

"A lot of manufacturers may be struggling to keep up with demand," Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, told Bloomberg News. "We're seeing clear demand improvements from both consumers and businesses that should provide a strong tailwind for several months at least."

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South Africa Takes Aim at Both Short and Long-Term Goals with World Cup Bid

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Not everyone cheered when South Africa was awarded the 2010 World Cup. Skeptics cited security concerns and poor infrastructure as potential pitfalls for the young democracy.

But now a month before kickoff, South Africa is set to silence its critics. The country has put the requisite work into launching the event and is poised to deliver on one of the world's grandest stages.

Just as the 2008 Olympics in Beijing shone a spotlight on China, this event will serve as a vibrant demonstration that South Africa, more than any other African nation, has arrived.

"Some people were saying it was a stupid decision to organize the World Cup in South Africa," Jerome Valcke, secretary-general of FIFA, told the Financial Times. "We will show the world that it was the right decision to organize the World Cup in South Africa and South Africa was able to provide, not only to FIFA but the world, with the best organization possible."

Better, even, than Germany provided as host in 2006, he claims. That's setting the bar awfully high, considering the 2006 World Cup was a resounding success.

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Stock Market Strategies for the Post-Financial-Crisis 'New World Order'

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For many investors, the recent thousand-point plunge by the U.S. stock market was probably the proverbial last straw.

So let me be perfectly clear about the point that I want to make here: Sitting on the sidelines could be the investment mistake of a lifetime. The post-financial-crisis "new world order" that's emerged from the speculative excesses, recessionary realities and regulatory breakdowns of recent years has created a world of lucrative new profit opportunities – governed by a new set of profit rules.

Let me explain…

To discover the next generation of global-stock-market winners, read on...

Japan's Astellas Pharma Is the Latest Company to Go Global to Dodge Patent Problems

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Japan's second-largest drug maker Astellas Pharma, Inc. announced yesterday (Sunday) it would buy U.S. biotech OSI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: OSIP) for $4 billion to increase its exposure to the U.S. pharmaceuticals market and build up its struggling pipeline.

The all-cash bid is Astellas' second for the sought-after OSI after a March 1 $3.5 billion offer was rejected. Astellas will pay $57.50 per OSI share, 11% more than the first offer and 55% more than OSI's last closing price before Astellas starting bidding. OSI closed at $59.80 Friday.

OSI's money-making cancer drug Tarceva generated $1.2 billion in sales last year and is projected to bring in $7 billion in revenue through 2020. Astellas wants to build a global cancer-drug business and jointly develop more cancer drugs with OSI.

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China Boosts Treasury Holdings as European Debt Contagion Sparks Investor Shift to U.S. Securities

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China increased its purchases of U.S. Treasuries for the first time in six months in March as concerns about European debt contagion sparked an influx of foreign investments into dollar-denominated securities.

China's holdings of U.S. Treasury securities rose by 2% to $895.2 billion, the first increase since last September, as the Asian juggernaut cemented its position as the top holder of U.S. government debt, according to the monthly Treasury International Capital report, known as TIC. The boost follows net sales of $11.5 billion in February.

Japan, the second largest holder of Treasuries, also was a net buyer in March, lifting its portfolio holdings to $784.9 billion, from $768.5 billion in February.

China's purchases were reflective of a deluge of foreign investment in U.S. debt securities as concerns about a European debt contagion and a rebounding U.S. economy sparked greater interest in purchasing U.S. corporate debt.

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Are 'Pure-Play' ETFs a Shrewd Investment - Or a Risk Not Worth Taking?

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They're called "pure-play" exchange-traded funds (ETFs). And they're the latest rage in the ETF sector.

But are they too much of a risk?

According to Dictionary.com, a mutual fund is an investment company "that gives small investors access to a well-diversified portfolio of equities, bonds and other securities," professionally managed to "match the objective stated in the (fund's) prospectus."

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