Archives for July 2010

July 2010 - Page 6 of 11 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

Is the U.S. Economy Destined for Deflation?

With inflation low and the recovery waning, a growing chorus of analysts is beginning to suspect that U.S. policymakers aren't doing enough to head off deflation.

U.S. producer prices fell for a third straight month in June, sliding 0.5%. That follows declines of 0.1% in May and 0.3% in April. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, managed only a 0.1% increase for the month, and is up just 1.1% in the past 12 months. The U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred target for inflation is 2%.

Meanwhile a high rate of unemployment continues to jeopardize the U.S. recovery, and economists fear that a significant drop in economic growth could tip the scales toward a deflationary spiral.

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The Seven Golden Rules That Will Keep You Safe in Today's 'New Normal' Markets

Pundits are talking about the "New Normal," a not-so-subtle hint at the sub-par growth that's expected from the U.S. economy.

Those pundits have picked the right book. But as far as investors are concerned they're reading from the wrong chapter. The "New Normal" isn't just about the economy. It's an epic story about not-so-great expectations – for the financial markets.

And - unlike its Dickensian counterpart - this tale doesn't have an especially happy ending.

Singapore's Economy Leads Asia's Rebound With Record-Breaking 2010 Growth

Singapore's economy grew at a record-breaking pace in the first half of 2010, boosting Asian economic growth that is outpacing the rest of the world.

Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry reported yesterday (Wednesday) that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 18.1% in the first half of the year, expanding 26% in the second quarter from the previous three months, and 19.3% in the second quarter from the same 2009 period.

The rise is the country's biggest since record-keeping began in 1975.

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Breaking Down the British Giant: Who Will Buy BP's Best Assets?

There's no question that some of BP PLC (NYSE ARD: BP)'s assets are on the block.

The company said Monday that the total cost of the Gulf oil spill had already risen to $3.5 billion. And while it's too early to estimate the final costs associated with the spill, analysts have pegged the tab at $20 billion to $40 billion. Some even believe the total cost could come in near $100 billion.

BP has already paid $165 million to settle individual claims and agreed to set up a $20 billion escrow fund to absorb further damages. It's also suspended its dividend to conserve cash.

But that's not enough. With costs soaring, BP said in June that it is looking to raise at least $10 billion through asset sales in the next 12 months. With that the run on BP's assets commenced.

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Question of the Week: Readers Respond to Money Morning's Retail Stimulus Query

Faced with a wheezing economy that can't seem to heal, big U.S. retailers like Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Office Depot Inc. (NYSE: ODP) are creating their own retail stimulus measures to lure hesitant shoppers back into stores.

Through such tactics as loan programs, credit card rebates and gift card giveaways, top retail chains are rolling out promotional strategies, hoping to break consumers out of their anti-spending doldrums.

"A lot of the government programs have come to an end," David Bassuk, an expert from financial consultancy AlixPartners, told The New York Times. "So retailers are taking it upon themselves to do everything they can to get the consumer to spend, even opening up their wallets to give money back to the consumer."

Sam's Club is taking an unusual approach: It's offering loans of $5,000 to $25,000 to its members, backed by the Small Business Administration. Superior Financial Group is managing the loans and will give Sam's members a $100 discount on the loan application fee and lower interest rates.

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Defensive Investing: Keeping Your Options Open with Covered Calls

Once you get beyond buying puts or calls for purely speculative purposes, no other options strategy is more popular than employing the use of covered calls – and with good reason: Few investment techniques offer more potential benefits with such a low level of risk.

Considered the most conservative of all option plays, this strategy – which basically involves selling (or "writing") one call option for each 100 shares of a stock you own – can be employed for one or more of five distinct purposes:

  1. To generate a stream of additional income – over and above dividend payments – from individual stocks in your equity portfolio.
  2. To generate a stream of income from stocks you own that pay no dividends.
  3. To reduce the effective cost basis of longer-term stock holdings by bringing in option premiums, thus recovering some of the original purchase price.
  4. To provide a limited hedge against potential losses in portfolio value as a result of overall market pullbacks or cyclical downturns in the prices of specific stocks.
  5. As an income-producing substitute for a "limit-sell order" – intended to liquidate a stock position when a specific profit target is achieved.

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The BP Relief Wells ... And the Two Nightmare Scenarios to Fear

Although the global energy sector is entering its most-promising stretch in decades – with more new technologies and more investment opportunities than ever before – I just can't seem to get away from BP PLC (NYSE ADR: BP) and its problems.

Take last Thursday, for instance. I began the day at FOX Business News, where the interviewer wanted me to explain what will happen if the BP relief wells fail. Then I spent an hour as the guest on a radio talk show from Johannesburg, South Africa, detailing what options are available to BP. Later still, I served as a consultant to a Wall Street investment crew – via conference call – once again on the status of the BP relief wells.

The BP relief wells are right now the dominant topic on everyone's mind. But there are two potential scenarios – of "nightmare proportions" – that investors need to know about.

Let me explain…

To understand the possible nightmares that BP faces in the months to come, please read on...

Alcoa Earnings Surprise is Positive News for Global Economic Recovery

When Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) kicked off earnings season on Monday by soundly beating analysts' expectations, it flashed positive signals for the company and, more importantly, the entire global economic recovery.

The aluminum giant swung from a loss of $0.26 in the same quarter last year to a gain of $0.13 per share, exceeding by 18% the 11-cent average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

"It's a very positive signal for economic growth and the stock market generally," John Stephenson, who helps manage $1.6 billion including Alcoa shares at First Asset Investment Management in Toronto, told Bloomberg. "Maybe end-use demand has not been destroyed. That's a very good sign and a great way to start off this Q2 earnings season."

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We Want to Hear From You: Are You Taking Care of Your Credit Score?

More Americans are seeing their credit score slip to its lowest level ever, according to a new report released this week by credit-scoring firm Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE: FICO). That means it's going to get a lot tougher for U.S. consumers to borrow money – especially given that banks are becoming more and more reluctant to lend.

"It's hard to see the good news in this report, unless you are speaking for the payday lenders, title lenders, and pawn stores," said John Ulzheimer, president of consumer education at Credit.com.

The FICO report shows that 25.5% of consumers – or nearly 43.4 million people – have a credit score below 600, putting them in the subprime realm. That makes them a high risk for lenders and means they'll have a tough time getting a credit card, mortgage or auto loan under stricter lending standards.

Another 9.5% of consumers have "fair" credit scores in the 600-649 range, which is still considered subprime. With "fair" scores, they're likely to need to seek loans, but may not be able to find one.

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