The Super Bowl Indicator: Everybody's a Winner Come Sunday

Given their steady intake of beer, buffalo wings, and hot dogs, it may not come as a surprise that diehard football fans are at a higher risk of suffering a heart attack during the Super Bowl.

But before going apoplectic on Sunday, try to take solace in the fact that - regardless of the game's outcome - your investments are in for a good year.

So says the Super Bowl indicator, anyway.

Laugh it off as a coincidence or superstition if you will, but the Super Bowl indicator has been correct in 35 of the past 44 years - giving it a success rate of nearly 80%. And it was correct 28 out of 31 times between 1967 and 1997- a 90% success rate.

The indicator was certainly right last year, when the New Orleans Saints topped the Indianapolis Colts, and it's equally optimistic this year.

It works like this: If the team that wins the big game has roots that extend back to the original National Football League, the stock market will have a good year. But if the victor was a member of the rival American Football League, expect the market to get sacked.

This year, the indicator will be bullish regardless of the game's outcome, as both the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers date back to the original NFL.

The same was true of the Saints and Colts last year, and in 2009 when the Steelers faced off against the Arizona Cardinals.

The results: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 11% last year, and 22.5% after the Steelers' 2009 victory.

Indeed, the market has responded particularly well to the Pittsburgh Steelers. As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette pointed out, the stock market has never had a losing year when the Pittsburgh Steelers appeared in the championship game.

Furthermore, the Dow has risen an average of 19.5% in the Steelers' seven Super Bowl years, more than double its average annual performance since the game was first played in 1967. Meanwhile, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has climbed an average of 20.9% during those years, compared to an average annual advance of 7.9% since 1967.

For the Cheeseheads: In the four years the Packers played in the Super Bowl, the Dow has gone up an average of 14.6% and the S&P 500 advanced an average of 21.4%. That includes appearances in 1997 and 1998, when the greatest bull market in history took off running.

So if you're a believer, don't let the game's outcome get you down. And you might also like to know that Punxsutawney Phil yesterday (Wednesday) predicted an early spring. Of course, his success rate is a less-than-stellar 39%.

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