Archives for June 2011

June 2011 - Page 2 of 9 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From

French Banks Scramble to Prevent Another Global Collapse

The threat of a Greek default has become so real that French banks, which constitute some of the top Greek debt holders, have intensified their efforts to ease the country's floundering finances.

French lenders, along with their government, have suggested a debt rollover program, the first private-sector proposal to help save Greece.

The proposal suggests reinvesting 50% of maturing Greek debt into 30-year Greek government bonds between now and 2014. The new securities would pay a coupon close to current loans' interest rates, and offer a bonus for additional Greek gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Another 20% of maturing Greek debt would be put into AAA-rated securities, like French Treasury bonds, as a "guarantee fund" for repayment on the 30-year debt holdings. This would take some of the Greek debt holdings off of banks' balance sheets.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy introduced the plan at a Paris news conference yesterday (Monday), saying French banks and insurance companies were committed to making it a reality.

The plan is a stark illustration of how dire the situation has become.

It's well understood that the European Union could be debilitated by a Greek default, but the United States has just as much at stake.

"The largely untold 'rest of the story' is this: If the European banking sector implodes, the U.S. financial system could take an unqualified beating," said Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani. "Big U.S. banks have been lending generously to banks across Europe. Close to 29% of their lending books during the past two years have gone to their heavyweight European counterparts. While they have pulled back considerably as a result of recent turmoil, U.S. banks are widely believed to have $41 billion of direct exposure to Greece."

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America for Sale: Liquidate Assets to Avert Debt Ceiling Crisis, Republicans Say

It would be the greatest garage sale in history.

The United States Treasury possesses 261.5 million ounces of gold, worth about $392.25 billion at current prices.

Some in Washington say the time has come to sell some of its gold, along with other government assets such as land and buildings, to pay down the $14.3 trillion federal debt and give Congress more time to resolve the federal debt ceiling crisis.

"It's just sort of sitting there," Ron Utt, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, told the Washington Post. "Given the high price it is now, and the tremendous debt problem we now have, by all means, sell at the peak."

U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-TX, agreed, telling the New York Sun that selling some of the Treasury's gold would be "a good and moral decision. An individual would have to do the same."

The idea isn't as crazy as it might sound. Six nations – Australia, Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal and Sweden – collectively sold off 48% of their gold reserves in the late 1990s. Britain sold half of its gold reserves from 1999 to 2002, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) sold 13% of its gold – over 403 tons of the yellow metal – as recently as 2009.

The ongoing Congressional struggle over raising the debt ceiling took an ominous turn last week when Republicans walked away from the negotiations, citing Democratic demands for tax increases. At the same time, Republican demands for deep spending cuts have met with resistance from Democrats.

With the deadline just five weeks away – Congress must act before Aug. 2 to avoid defaulting on the nation's debt – some are looking at the sale of gold and other federal assets as a way to reduce the debt and give both sides more time to reach a deal.

Beyond Gold

The Treasury's gold is just one asset some Republicans think could be liquidated.

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China's Move Away from the U.S. Dollar Means You Need to Invest in the Yuan

China has started diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, yet another sign that it's time to invest in the yuan.

A report from Standard Chartered Bank last week showed China's foreign exchange reserves expanded by $196 billion in the first four months of this year. About 75% of that investment was in non-U.S. dollar assets.

This is the biggest gap between accumulated reserves and purchased U.S. debt by China in at least five years.

As the dollar's value weakens, China has taken steps to distance itself from the currency, and attempted to strengthen its own by investing more in gold and other assets.

Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald said China's diversification means the yuan is backed by better assets than other countries' currencies.

"That is why the yuan is likely to emerge as a new reserve currency, and yet another argument for owning the yuan as an investment," said Fitz-Gerald. "This is the full circle nobody expects and one of the reasons I frequently refer to China's yuan as the only currency on the planet with adult supervision."


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Profit From a Market Misstep with Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO)

The latest stock market pullback has given value investors a chance to go shopping again – and Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) is a great example of the kind of steals that are available.

That is, Valero's assets are worth significantly more than what the market is currently pricing them at.

At its core, the company is a vertically integrated, independent crude refiner with ethanol production that can be blended into the feedstocks of its own network of gas stations.

Right now is the perfect time to be grabbing assets on the cheap, and Valero is giving us an opportunity that's too good to pass up.

So it's time to buy Valero Energy Corp. (**).

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What the Future Holds for U.S. Stocks in Light of the Fed’s Failings

Major U.S. stocks were under pressure during most of the past week as new worries about Eurozone sovereign debt and a disastrous press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke corroded confidence.

This time, it was not just Greece that was pushing sellers' hot button, but also Italy, as the Mediterranean nation's banks are believed to have excessive exposure to troubled loans in the region. But at the center of the troubles was Bernanke, who looked helpless as an Econ 101 student in a master's class when asked by the media to explain why the economy was not improving as fast as expected.

On the plus side of the ledger this was a stronger-than-forecast increase in U.S. durable goods orders, some very upbeat inflation comments from China, and an improvement in German business confidence.

So where are we now?

Well, my premise at the start of the year was that you would not have to get too fancy to beat the broad market indexes, which are weighed down by troubles at the banks. The idea was you would not even have to get as fancy as picking the right world regions or sectors, like last year. Instead, you could put a large part of your portfolio in something as prosaic as the growth half of the S&P 400 Midcap Index – the iShares Midcap Growth Fund ETF(NYSE: IJK) fund – and let it ride.

That worked for my through mid-May, then it stopped out for a fat gain. Now it looks good to go again, as long as bulls man up and make a stand right here, right now.

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Investing Basics: How To Profit From Pink Sheets Stocks

Most investors have heard the term "pink sheets" as a reference to stocks. But how many know what they are? Pink sheets are companies that are traded over-the-counter and that aren't part of any major stock exchange. But that doesn't mean they are any less valuable than traditional stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds. […]

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Gold Prices: Will Gold Equity Investors Reap Big Gains?

Gold prices passed the $1,500 per ounce mark for the first time ever in mid-April and, aside from a couple of short pullbacks in early May, have set up shop in the neighborhood of $1,525 to $1,550 an ounce (gold closed at $1,553.40 on Wednesday).

So far in 2011, it's been relatively status quo for those investors who've embraced gold as a way to protect themselves from currency debasement, excessive money printing and inflation as prices have increased 7.67%. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (NYSE: BAC) analysts are forecasting gold prices could fall to $1,400 an ounce during seasonal weakness in July before rebounding as high as $1,650 an ounce by early fall.

While the party continues for gold bullion prices, stocks of gold companies have been a no-show. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (HUI) has fallen more than 13% year-to-date and the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index (XAU) has toppled more than 16%. Companies such as High River Gold Mines Ltd., Jaguar Mining Inc. (NYSE: JAG) and NovaGold Resources Inc. (AMEX: NG) are off more than 45% from 2007-2008 highs.

This underperformance has been exacerbated in recent weeks making it a hot topic of discussion among investors, analysts and portfolio managers.

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Inflating Away America's Future

Americans are suffering from a lack of adequate savings to fund a comfortable retirement. Our growing debt burdens virtually assure us that the lofty living standards of today will soon be nothing more than a long forgotten memory.

Those ideas are now becoming more promulgated.

But what is less known is that our government will likely seek a panacea that will lead to perdition, not only for our retirees, and soon-to-be retirees, but our entire economy and country as well.

Consumers – especially those who are about to retire – are currently experiencing a barrage of economic hardships. The value of their real estate holdings is back to the level it was in 2002. Stock prices are back to the same level they were at the end of the last millennium. Real incomes continue to fall, while the unemployment rate remains near double digits. Household debt as a percentage of income and gross domestic product (GDP) is near record levels. Many public pension plans are insolvent and our entitlement programs have scores of trillions of dollars in red ink.

Given all the headwinds that have plagued consumers over the course of the past decade, it is no surprise that their balance sheets are in a state of massive disrepair. In fact, household net worth fell from the 2007 peak to the 2009 valley by a total of $17.5 trillion, or 25.5%, and is still nearly $10 trillion away from its all-time high.

But unlike what occurred during the Great Depression, prices at the retail level are rising sharply instead of falling. The consumer price index (CPI) is up 3.6%, imported goods are up 12.5% and commodity prices are up 35% year-over-year. So our current and prospective retirees are forced to deal with the worst of all combinations: a negative real return on savings, rising consumer prices, and deflating asset prices.

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Rising Food Prices Are on the Menu Regardless of G20 Action

Rising food prices are hardly a secret.

You've no doubt felt them in your wallet already. And just a few days ago, we again warned you about the storm that's been brewing in the agricultural sector.

Well yesterday (Thursday) the Group of 20 (G20) decided to take action by announcing it would curb rising food prices by creating a more transparent system of tracking food supplies.

But sadly, that won't be enough.

"The plan of action tries to address the symptoms of price volatility on agricultural markets," Olivier De Schutter, the United Nations special rapporteur on the right to food, told the Guardian, "but it fails to address the causes."

Those causes have been well-documented in Money Morning: The steeply rising global population, growing demand from emerging markets such as China, the spillover effect of rising energy prices, mandates on biofuels, and a weak dollar.

And those factors together mean rising food prices for the foreseeable future – regardless of what the G20 tries to do.

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The Facebook IPO: Why Facebook Subscribers Should Get a Piece of the Action

Mark Zuckerberg… you need to share the wealth from the Facebook IPO.

During a Wednesday morning appearance on the FoxBusiness "Varney & Co." program, Money Morning's Shah Gilani said the Facebook Inc. founder and CEO should reserve 20% of the potential $100 billion initial public offering (IPO) for some of the company's 6 00 million subscribers – since they're the folks who really made Zuckerberg the king of social networking (as well one of the youngest billionaires in history).

Given that the Facebook IPO is likely to be one of the hottest ever when the company goes public next year, Gilani said that his proposal would probably be the only way the average investor could get a piece of the company at the offering price. Otherwise, retail investors who really want to own Facebook shares will be forced to buy in on the secondary market after Facebook's share price has experienced what's expected to be a stratospheric zoom. So he challenged Zuckerberg to make this pioneering move.

"Zuckerberg made history with Facebook – and now he's the king of social media and social networking – the man with the Midas touch," said Gilani, a former Wall Street insider and Money Morning commentator who operates the Capital Wave Forecast advisory service. "But now it's time for him to give some of the gold that he's earned as the head of Facebook back to the people who helped make that happen."

Added Gilani: "Facebook was Act One for him. This kind of pioneering move with the Facebook IPO could be Act Two – the encore. If social media is a force for good, this would be Zuckerberg's opportunity to once again prove he's a real social innovator."

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