Facebook stock got off to a rocky start Friday, with Nasdaq messing up order confirms and Morgan Stanley propping up the share price. Now on day two, the stock price has slumped more than 10% already in morning trading. Money Morning Capital Waves Strategist Shah Gilani joined Fox Business' "Varney & Co." program to discuss […]
Archives for May 2012
May 2012 - Page 6 of 15 - Money Morning - Only the News You Can Profit From
Why Facebook Stock is doing a Faceplant
Forget all the hype.
And you can even forget that I told you Facebook was a hyped-up offering, and that I would sell my shares if I was an insider, and that I definitely wouldn't buy the IPO on its first trading day.
Did you listen to me?
If you didn't, and you own Facebook stock (Nasdaq: FB), here's what you have to worry about.
The Facebook Stock Concerns
First, did you get your confirmation? Probably by now you did.
But the problems that NASDAQ OMX Group had sending out electronic trade confirmations in the heat of trading on Friday were staggering. (They eventually went "manual" on the opening day of the biggest tech offer ever on the biggest tech exchange in the world… how ironic… manual.)
There's nothing out there, nothing anywhere about who or how many people did or didn't get confirmations or when they got them. There's nothing out there because the exchange is panicking, and if thousands of confirms, or tens of millions of shares, are up in the air… well imagine what could happen.
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If You Want to Be a Winner, Follow These Four Rules
Last month, our in-house metals-and-commodities expert Peter Krauth hosted one of his regular conference calls for his Real Asset Returns advisory service subscribers.
Peter's guest was Rick Rule, founder of Sprott Asset Management's Global Companies unit – a real heavy-hitter and one of the sharpest resource investors you'll find.
Rick is always engaging and provocative, and his presentation to Real Asset subscribers was no exception.
He capped off predictions for gold, energy and other commodities with four rules successful resource investors must follow.
And they're so good I had to share them with you.
Rule No. 1: Use Common Sense: "If it something sounds too good to be true, it is too good to be true," Rick told the conference call audience.
The Takeaway: Like all of Rick Rule's Rules, this one applies to all investments, not just commodities. For maximum gains and minimum heartache, be realistic about your expectations, thoroughly understand what you're getting into, manage your risk and don't succumb to hype.
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The Top Five Eagle Ford Shale Oil Stocks
The shale oil boom is turning out to be even bigger than anyone predicted.
Recently Money Morning told you about the Bakken oil shale boom. The Eagle Ford shale oil formation in south Texas is nearly as large, and production there is ramping up rapidly.
Eagle Ford is among the largest U.S. shale oil deposits, with recoverable reserves estimated as high as 7 billion to 10 billion barrels.
But Eagle Ford is also "liquids-rich." That means it has a high concentration of oil versus gas — a major attraction at a time when oil prices are high and natural gas prices are at historic lows.
Many oil companies are eager to get in on the action at Eagle Ford, and expectations are running high.
"We are evaluating a series of projects … that could literally double our company's earnings over the next few years," Curt Anastasio, CEO of NuStar Energy (NYSE: NS), told Reuters.
Another oil company CEO, Bill Klesse of Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), thinks Eagle Ford could have an impact even beyond bigger profits.
"It's going to back out sweet crude imports into the United States, and that's going to happen by 2014," Klesse predicted, speaking at Valero's annual meeting earlier this month.
Indeed, the statistics coming out surrounding the Eagle Ford shale oil operations are impressive.
Data from the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates energy in the state, tells an amazing story. Shale oil production increased nearly seven-fold from 2010 to 2011, from an average of just less than 12,000 barrels a day to about 83,400 barrels a day.
And that could explode to 500,000 barrels a day by the end of 2012, Klesse said, with output expected to double to 1 million barrels a day "in the next few years."
Impact of Eagle Ford Shale Oil Underestimated
Eagle Ford has progressed so quickly that a forecast of its economic benefits became outdated almost as soon as it was issued last year.
A study by the Center for Community and Business Research at the University of Texas San Antonio's Institute for Economic Development in early 2011 projected the Eagle Ford formation would directly and indirectly contribute $21.5 billion and 68,000 full-time jobs to the 20-county South Texas region by 2020.
Last week UTSA released a follow-up study.
It found the Eagle Ford contributed $25 billion to the local economy in 2011 — $3.5 billion more than the 2020 projection.
The new UTSA study says Eagle Ford will pump about $62.3 billion into the local economy by 2021. The job creation number increased to nearly 117,000.
"We view the Eagle Ford activity as an economic opportunity of a lifetime," said Mario Hernandez, president of the San Antonio Economic Development Foundation. "The key goal is the increase in investment and jobs. And if the communities will partner with the private companies that are creating these jobs, it can be a win-win for everybody."
Growth that outruns forecasts is good news for investors. Money Morning has sorted through the many choices to zero in on five Eagle Ford shale oil stocks that could do particularly well:
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There's More to the IPO Market Than Facebook (Nasdaq: FB)
Admit it, you love the Facebook IPO (Nasdaq: FB).
Besides its $100 billion-plus stock valuation, the social media company has over 900 million active users worldwide.
Plus, at $16 billion, Facebook will go down as the second largest U.S. IPO ever, trailing only Visa's $17.9 billion deal in 2010.
But let's not forget, this isn't the first IPO that's gotten a ton of attention, and it won't be the last.
In fact, the hype surrounding Facebook stock is overshadowing the entire IPO market, clouding the big picture, and perhaps, some worthwhile investments.
So let's take a look at what else has been going on in the IPO market and what's coming up that deserves your attention.
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Facebook Stock Price Gets Small Bump in Lackluster Debut
In what was one of the most highly anticipated initial public offerings in history, Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) finally made its debut among much fanfare and frenzy Friday.
But the Facebook stock price failed to soar as high as the hype. While not exactly a dud, the intro was definitely subdued.
Shares opened around 11:30 a.m. in New York at $42.05, up about 11% from Facebook's IPO price. Momentum quickly ebbed, and shares dropped as low at the $38 IPO price in the first half hour of trading.
By 3 p.m. shares were hovering just above $38. But with an hour of trading still to go, investors shouldn't get complacent.
"The day isn't over," cautioned Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald. But regarding Facebook's debut, "initial trading has not been impressive."
JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) Losses Keep Unraveling
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) beleaguered CEO Jamie Dimon will not be happy when he reads through Friday's papers.
The Financial Times reported that more than a dozen senior traders and credit experts know that JPMorgan is in a lot more trouble than just suffering $2.3 billion – and counting – in losses.
Turns out the unit at JPMorgan that's responsible for the loss has been the biggest buyer of European mortgage-backed bonds and other complex debt securities in all markets for three years.
Now JPMorgan has built up positions totaling $100 billion in the same risky financial products that triggered the financial crisis in 2008.
But anyone who followed Money Morning's Shah Gilani as he covered the topic knew this was a likely hidden truth.
You see, Gilani told us last Sunday, just days after news of the losses broke, that there was more to these trades than one hedge-gone-wrong.
"The idiots at the bank wanted to hedge against European credit exposure that they had," Gilani wrote last to his Wall Street Insights and Indictments readers. "They are idiots because the money that's shepherded by the Chief Investment Office (some $379 billion, yeah, that number is right) is money that the bank has and hasn't lent out, or technically is "available" to play with. And instead of parking it in U.S. government bonds (Citi has $293 billion of the same float and has 87% of it parked in "governments"), they parked a lot of it in Europe's crappy credit markets."
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SpaceX Picks Up Where NASA Left Off
A few minutes before dawn yesterday we crossed what could be a major space-related milestone.
An intriguing little startup firm called SpaceX launched one of its Falcon 9 rockets from Cape Canaveral, Fl., to dock its Dragon spacecraft with the International Space Station.
Make no mistake about it – this could mark a turning point for the U.S.
NASA ended the shuttle program last year. That leaves the U.S. hitching rides to the Space Station from our "good friends" the Russians. That's not good for national security, much less for innovation and exploration.
We've already talked about the "New Space Race" – part of that being the asteroid mining initiative that private company Planetary Resources is embarking upon.
When it comes to space transportation, thankfully, SpaceX plans to pick up where cash-strapped NASA left off.
Saturday's launch could eventually have a value of at least $1.6 billion – that's the total price tag for a contract NASA gave to SpaceX for 12 Space Station flights.
But there's more to the story than that…
Commercializing Space Travel
I predict that in a few short years, commercial space travel will become routine.
Not only will we be mining all those near-space asteroids for vital resources, we will be able to visit Mars, and even send tourists out for close-up views of the planets.
That's why, even though Saturday was just a test run, there's a lot riding on it.
The company, crew, NASA, and investors all hope this new launch pulls it together for the firm and the budding commercial space sector.
CEO Elon Musk founded SpaceX in 2002 and plowed $100 million of his own money into it. What they're after – eventually – is the ability to offer space travel at approximate one-third of the cost per passenger that Russia can do it today, according to a recent Wired interview with another SpaceX co-founder.
If anyone can do it, it's Elon Musk.
Born in South Africa, he is a talented young entrepreneur with a knack for making money. (This is the man who was the inspiration for multi-billionaire industrialist Tony Stark in the film version of "Iron Man" – both for director Jon Favreau and for actor Robert Downey Jr.'s portrayal of Stark.)
And he's part of the reason I believe in SpaceX, even if the mission tomorrow goes bust.
This is just not a man who likes to take "no" for an answer.
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Heavy Betting in the Middle of Mayhem
There's going to be a lot of very heavy betting over the next few days, weeks, and months on what's going up, what's going down, and what's going around:
- How far will Facebook IPO price go?
- How far DOWN from here will JPMorgan go, with the FBI and DOJ now sniffing around?
- How far AROUND the globe will the fallout be if Greece loses its game of chicken?
If you don't have the stomach for what's going to feel like an out-of-control rollercoaster ride, sideline yourself.
If, on the other hand, you like a lot of action, welcome to Mayhem – the preamble month to what will likely be the Summer of Some Discontent.
That is, unless you like rapid-fire trading.
Which, by the way, is not just fun, but can be very, very profitable. I'm in, and so are the subscribers to my Capital Wave Forecast. We're gearing up for some heavy betting in the weeks and months ahead.
So, what's front and center today? You know. The big three headlines: Facebook, JPMorgan Chase, and Greece. Are you sick of hearing about them? I'm not. I like trading the headlines.
Here's my "heads-up" on the big three headlines.
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The Collapse of the Euro: The Secret Government Mistake That Could Topple the EU
This may sound arcane and boring, but I promise you it's not.
What I've learned will blow another hole in the already shaky euro.
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