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Is 2013 Going to be Worse than 2012? – Real Time Insight

Optimism and Pessimism are the flavors of choice in this RTI.  I wanted to show everybody the latest consensus forecasts for real GDP growth in major world economies.  

I arranged them below.  

Top performers are at the front of the pack.


China GDP 2012 7.7%, 2013 8.1%     (Better)

India GDP 2012 5.6%, 2013 6.6%        (Better)


Russia GDP 2012 3.7%, 2013 3.6%         (Worse)

Australia GDP 2012 3.5%, 2013 2.8%      (Worse)

Mexico GDP 2012 3.9%, 2013 3.6%        (Worse)


U.S. GDP 2012   2.2%, 2013 1.9%       (Worse)

U.K. GDP 2012 -0.1%, 2013 1.3%      (Better)


Japan GDP 2012 1.8%, 2013 0.8%      (Worse)

Eurozone GDP 2012 -0.5%, 2013 0.0%   (Worse)

The main point of this exercise is to show how much pessimism there is on the world economy in 2013. Outside of better outlooks for China and India, everything else looks grim. This doesn’t seem justified to me.  I am particularly dismayed by the U.S. call.

Do you agree?  Is 2013 going to be a worse year for the world economy than 2012?

Let us know your reasoning.  Why the pessimism or optimism?

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  1. H. Craig Bradley | December 12, 2012


    Your guess is as good as mine in the good old U.S.A. To be sure, a large amount of our reported GDP in any given quarter is due to government spending on a variety of levels. So, if any real "cuts" occur in baseline Federal government spending (doubtful), then it would reduce the GDP numbers by a corresponding amount.

    This explains President Obama's strategy to a Tee. Keep the Federal govt. spending up and minimize any "cuts" so as not to depress the GDP numbers while on his watch. Raise taxes for a little extra revenue and to punish the successful and "wealthy". Any cuts argreed to in the "Cliff" negotiations will be for future years ( 2017 and on). So, building up more dept is fine if it keeps the system going between now and 2016. That's Obama's big gamble. After that, well- its no longer his problem. "Kick the Can" has now been institutionalized.

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