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Vladimir Putin had a chance to back down from his aggression in the Ukraine after Russian separatists shot down a Malaysian passenger jet.
Unfortunately, he didn't.
With no answer to the charge that the Malaysian jet would not have been shot down but for the course of events he set in motion, Mr. Putin has also shown no indication that he plans to change course.
Left with little choice, the United States and European Union imposed a new series of economic sanctions on Russia to express their disapproval. The new sanctions include restrictions on Russian state banks from financing themselves on a long-term basis in European capital markets. It also imposes an embargo on trading weapons and dual-use technology on Russian companies, and restricts exports of energy-related equipment and technology to Russia.
For the moment, the West hopes that economic weapons will create enough domestic political pressure on Mr. Putin to change his behavior. This may be an optimistic scenario.
If recent history is any indication, it will require far more severe steps to put an end to Mr. Putin's hegemonic dreams.
Mr. Putin is playing a very long game, one in which he's prepared to see the Russian economy pay a very high price. That will mean consequences for investors the world over...
Sanctions Could Damage Banking, but Russia Has Options
While the West could have done more, the new sanctions will bite. In particular, the restriction that limits Russian state banks from selling any financial instruments with a maturity of over 90 days could cause significant damage to the Russian economy. This is expected to affect about 30% of Russia's bank sector.
Last year, $10 billion, or about one-third, of the bonds issued by Russian state banks were sold in the European Union. Without access to Western lenders, Russian state banks will have to look to lenders in the Middle East and Asia to refinance this debt. They will likely be able to find lenders in these regions, however, and fall far short of imposing permanent damage on the Russian financial sector.
Over the next year, Russian banks and corporations reportedly have a combined $170 billion of debt coming due. Right now global markets are highly accommodative and likely to find a way to refinance this debt.
For example, Russian oil companies have been looking lately to China for financing. The biggest risk to Russia would be if markets were to experience some kind of dislocation - perhaps as a result of the Federal Reserve raising rates more aggressively than expected. In that scenario, the sanctions could have a more severe effect.
How Long Will Putin's Oligarchs Wait?
The sanctions could also have a serious impact if they remain in place for an extended period of time. Otherwise, however, they primarily pose an inconvenience to Russian banks and corporations and send a signal that the West is unhappy.
At this point, it remains to be seen whether these sanctions will create sufficient pressure on Mr. Putin from the oligarchs and other domestic forces to compel him to change his behavior.
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I don't see where Mr. Putin is doing much of anything. from where I sit it looks like the US wants to pick a fight.
The world has become a smaller place because of technology. So foreign crises like this have wide spread effects.
What so many westerners seem to be missing is this: Prior to the take-over of Crimea, Russian drillers were exploring the area on land and off-coast. It is almost certain that they found huge gas and oil reserves that they just could not let Ukraine develop. If Ukraine did develop them it would have meant that Russia would have had a huge competitor in the oil and gas business. So when Putin weighs the cost of sanctions verses the cost of letting Ukraine into the gas and oil export business, he obviously chose sanctions.
The other development that is even more threatening is that Ukraine is suing Russia in the world court for the loss of Crimea. The potential is there for Ukraine to win a couple of trillion dollars in a judgement against Russia, and it is almost certain that they will win the suit. The only way that Russia can stop the law suit and eventual judgement that will cost them waaayy more than they can afford, is to take over all of Ukraine and then they can stop the law suit. That means that Russia is not going to stop their agressive actions any time soon. It is time, right now, for the West to get very serious about stopping Putin i
Good comments Jeff, very insightful. And scary because Putin is not afraid of the US under Obama or the EU which is dependent on Russia for oil and gas.
Since when did Russia pay for any war damage or other damages? The Ukraine is a pawn in the whole chess game and will continue to suffer as long as it keeps listening to communists Merkel and Obama. War games are what the US is good at but the Russians are used to bull**** and once the truth about the Malaysian plane comes out, Europe will change its support of the US. For those who do not know, the long term view of the Euro by the US has been to destroy it! Every move by the US in Europe has been to destabilize the EU borders, create weak states all around it so that the EU will become reliant (again) on the $US. The EU has much GOLD as a community, and the US wants it! Russia and China have been selling US bonds and the US Fed is unhappy. Every Arab state is in trouble. Even Turkey will become weak and once it falls down, watch out Greece……sorry, EU. The true avalanche of eastern immigrants will commence. No one will be able to stop them, because Greece will just print EU visas!!!