Share This Article

Facebook LinkedIn
Twitter Reddit
Print Email
Pinterest Gmail
Yahoo
Money Morning
×
  • Invest
    • Best Stocks to Buy
    • Stock Forecasts
    • Stocks to Sell Now
    • Stock Market Predictions
    • Technology Stocks
    • Best REITs to Buy Now
    • IPO Stocks
    • Penny Stocks
    • Dividend Stocks
    • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cannabis Investing
    • Angel Investing
  • Trade
    • How to Trade Options
    • Best Trades to Make Now
    • Options Trading Strategies
    • Weekly Trade Recommendations
  • Retire
    • Income Investing Guide
    • Retirement Articles
  • More
    • Money Morning LIVE
    • Special Investing Reports
    • Our ELetters
    • Our Premium Services
    • Videos
    • Meet Our Experts
    • Profit Academy
Login My Member Benefits Archives Research Your Team About Us FAQ
  • Invest
    • Best Stocks to Buy
    • Stock Forecasts
    • Stocks to Sell Now
    • Stock Market Predictions
    • Technology Stocks
    • Best REITs to Buy Now
    • IPO Stocks
    • Penny Stocks
    • Dividend Stocks
    • Cryptocurrencies
    • Cannabis Investing
    • Angel Investing
    ×
  • Trade
    • How to Trade Options
    • Best Trades to Make Now
    • Options Trading Strategies
    • Weekly Trade Recommendations
    ×
  • Retire
    • Income Investing Guide
    • Retirement Articles
    ×
  • More
    • Money Morning LIVE
    • Special Investing Reports
    • Our ELetters
    • Our Premium Services
    • Videos
    • Meet Our Experts
    • Profit Academy
    ×
  • Subscribe
Enter stock ticker or keyword
×
5 Ways to Beat the Fed (and Crush Inflation)

Email this Article

Send with mail | ahoo instead.
Required Needs to be a valid email
Required Needs to be a valid email
Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Oil Down
http://mney.co/1aNn8fi
Required Please enter the correct value.
Twitter

Iran Nuclear "Deal" Won't Drive Oil Down

By Dr. Kent Moors, Global Energy Strategist, Oil & Energy Investor • @KentMoors_OEI • April 9, 2015

View Comments

Start the conversation

Comment on This Story Click here to cancel reply.

Or to contact Money Morning Customer Service, click here.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Some HTML is OK

Dr. Kent MoorsDr. Kent Moors

Here at Money Morning we recently had the opportunity to sit down with Dr. Kent Moors, Money Map Press' Global Energy Strategist, for a quick chat about oil.

Kent had taken time out of his frequent world travels - scoping out the latest global energy profit developments - to stop by our HQ in Baltimore.

Here's what he told us about his "ground level" view of the real impact recent geopolitical events in Iran will have on the price of oil.

It's not what most experts think...

Money Morning: Good afternoon, Kent. Let's talk about the quickly changing situation in Iran and its potential influence on oil prices. You wrote recently about the concerns other analysts have expressed about the impact of an Iranian nuclear agreement on already low oil prices.

Kent: The current fear is the tentative agreement with Iran will flood the market with oil and further depress the price. Now, that's what pundits will tell you if they have 30 seconds on air to say something.

Any agreement is unlikely to endure. It became more unlikely after 47 senators essentially tried to sabotage it [in a letter on March 9 saying a future Republican administration would likely spike the deal]. That, largely, was all you needed to render it ineffective. I can tell you that, in that part of the world, that's really all you need. The United States now cannot be trusted to follow through, period.

Money Morning: The senators' letter alone had that impact?

Kent: Yes, and that's exactly why they did it. Iran doesn't know who to trust, so they don't trust anyone. But even with a tentative deal now, and assuming the next administration supports it, it will take a very long time before that oil gets to the market. You've got a situation where the Iranian infrastructure is disastrous and it's going to take a while to rebuild.

Some of that they can't do without significant outside support, and until you eliminate all the sanctions, the outside support's not going to be there. So you're not going to get the technology; you're not going to get what you need to move oil. They have to set up the trading structure; they have to set up the shipping arrangements, and so on.

Until a couple of years ago, for almost ten years, my wife Marina and I ran Thomson Reuters' Russian Petroleum Investor and Caspian Investor.

In the Caspian Investor we were dealing with oil and gas in the Caspian Basin (much of which is in westernmost Kazakhstan, but extends south into Iran) so I ended up writing all their Iranian material.

When we first started introducing Western sanctions, the most damaging were the ones that were applied to insurance companies and shipping outfits. Nobody wants to transport Iranian oil, and even if you do get a tanker that will carry it, nobody is going to insure it. People don't understand that part. They think "Okay, you couldn't sell oil... and now you can." But it's not that simple or quick.

To phase-in all of this process takes time. There's got to be trusted assurances and any agreement will require that certain benchmark indicators are met or sanctions won't be lifted. Or they'll be lifted in stages as you meet each one of these benchmarks. It's going to require very invasive verification inside Iran, which they've never been comfortable with historically.

Money Morning: What impact will Iran's existing oil exchange with China or India have on flattening Western prices?

Join the conversation. Click here to jump to comments…

Dr. Kent MoorsDr. Kent Moors

About the Author

Browse Dr. Kent's articles | View Dr. Kent's research services

Dr. Kent Moors is an internationally recognized expert in oil and natural gas policy, risk assessment, and emerging market economic development. He serves as an advisor to many U.S. governors and foreign governments. Kent details his latest global travels in his free Oil & Energy Investor e-letter. He makes specific investment recommendations in his newsletter, the Energy Advantage. For more active investors, he issues shorter-term trades in his Energy Inner Circle.

… Read full bio

Login
guest
guest
3 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Frank Bresee
Frank Bresee
7 years ago

While I am not at all qualified to comment on this article it does appear to at least give me the logical,"common sense", developments and events I should monitor when trying to understand the future.

I don't know what you would call it but the United States does not have a government for the people….

Many thanks,
F L Bresee.

0
Reply
Leslie Kaluzny
Leslie Kaluzny
7 years ago

Dr. Kent Moors speaks knowledgeably about the stark reality of Iran resuming a competitive restart of their oil energy industry even if sanctions are removed!

Even more crippling for the future of Iran's economic prosperity is that it's leadership's objective is to use their oil industry profits to finance their nuclear weapons program in order to be the big man on top of the region's heap!

Any sensible politician surely would recognize that economic trade is probably the furthest from Iran's objectives!

Iran's leaders figure if they have the nuclear warhead – trade can be forced with neighbours so the hell with economics – or because they hate their neighbour they are as good as death so who needs economics!

So – who's more 'INSANE' Western Leaders who think Iran can be negotiated with or the Iranian Leadership where trade is an opportunity to destroy the one you trade with?

0
Reply
Tom Pendergast
Tom Pendergast
7 years ago

Dr Moors

You said that nobody wants to transport Iranian oil, and even if you do manage to get a tanker, nobody will insure it. In this regard, what has been the response of Chinese and Indian oil traders?

In addition, I have heard that Iran is storing a large amount of crude in tankers on the Persian Gulf. I can't imagine that they have sufficient (offshore) storage capacity for this to be very significant. After all, their Persian Gulf ports can't even accommodate VLCCs. Do you have any insight to offer on this?

0
Reply
LIVE
Visit Money Morning Live


Latest News

January 19, 2023 • By Money Morning Stock Research Team

These Stocks Could Go To $0

January 9, 2023 • By Money Morning Stock Research Team

The Government Is Pouring $391 Billion Into These Stocks - Buy Now

December 27, 2022 • By Money Morning Staff Reports

6 IPOs in 2023 You Can’t Afford to Miss
Trending Stories
ABOUT MONEY MORNING

Money Morning gives you access to a team of market experts with more than 250 years of combined investing experience – for free. Our experts – who have appeared on FOXBusiness, CNBC, NPR, and BloombergTV – deliver daily investing tips and stock picks, provide analysis with actions to take, and answer your biggest market questions. Our goal is to help our millions of e-newsletter subscribers and Moneymorning.com visitors become smarter, more confident investors.

QUICK LINKS
About Us COVID-19 Announcements How Money Morning Works FAQs Contact Us Search Article Archive Forgot Username/Password Archives Profit Academy Research Your Team Videos Text Messaging Terms of Use
FREE NEWSLETTERS
Total Wealth Research Power Profit Trades Profit Takeover This Is VWAP Penny Hawk Trading Today Midday Momentum Pump Up the Close
PREMIUM SERVICES
Money Map Press Home Money Map Report Fast Fortune Club Weekly Cash Clock Night Trader Microcurrency Trader Hyperdrive Portfolio Rocket Wealth Initiative Extreme Profit Hunters Profit Revolution Warlock's World Quantum Data Profits Live Trading Alliance Trade The Close Inside Money Trader Expiration Trader Vega Burst Trader Flashpoint Trader Darknet Hyper Momentum Trader Alpha Accelerators Weekly Profit Cycles

© 2023 Money Morning All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including the world wide web), of content from this webpage, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Money Morning.

Address: 1125 N Charles St. | Baltimore, MD, 21201 | USA | Phone: 888.384.8339 | Disclaimer | Sitemap | Privacy Policy | Whitelist Us | Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information

wpDiscuz