Intel Stock Price Hinges on Earnings Guidance for 2015 (INTC)

5:15 pm. UPDATE: Intel reported earnings of $0.41 a share, in line with expectations. Revenue was $12.8 billion, slightly below forecasts. But the company forecast a 3% increase in revenue for the current quarter based on its improving data center business. The Intel stock price was up 3% in after-hours trading to $32.42.

When Intel Corp. (Nasdaq: INTC) reports earnings after the market close today (Tuesday), the company's guidance for 2015 will have the greatest impact on the Intel stock price.

While guidance is always closely watched, it will carry an unusual amount of weight for Intel earnings this time around.

You see, the Santa Clara, Calif.-based chipmaker withdrew its guidance for the rest of 2015 on March 12, saying it would update its yearly forecast when it released Q1 earnings.

At the same time, Intel lowered its Q1 guidance based on weaker demand for PCs. Intel-made chips power more than 80% of the world's PCs.

INTC warned that Q1 revenue would fall $1 billion below its previous forecast, to $12.8 billion. The double dose of bad news dropped the Intel stock price by nearly 5%, to $30.80.

At this point analysts are pretty sure what to expect from Intel's Q1. But the guidance the company might give for the rest of the year is a real wild card. That means it could cause a dramatic swing in the Intel stock price, both after-hours tonight and in regular trading tomorrow.

Otherwise, here's what to expect from the Q1 Intel earnings:

Q1 Intel Earnings: The Overview

The Numbers: According to Yahoo! Finance, analysts are looking for earnings per share (EPS) of $0.41, up from $0.38 in the same period a year ago. The revenue forecast is for $12.9 billion, up slightly from $12.76 billion a year ago. Remember, that's the figure Intel revised downward in March. Intel did have a strong 2014, however, with revenue up 6% and EPS up 22%.

The Last Quarter: Intel beat expectations when it reported Q4 earnings in January. EPS of $0.74 was well above the $0.66 Wall Street had forecast. Revenue of $14.72 billion was just a hair higher than expectations for $14.7 billion.

The Intel Stock Price: INTC stock responded to the company's strong performance in 2014, rising 41.76% on the year. But lackluster PC sales reports and the company's own lowered guidance have pushed the Intel stock price down 12.5% so far in 2015.

While 2015 guidance will be the focus, other earnings news could also affect the Intel stock price. Some things to watch:

David Zeiler

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